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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nothing has changed since yesterday and we do not know it's effects. That's what is interesting. So may CONUS mets have been tweeting about this and all the energy traders are wondering what the buzz is all about since it looks like the 1700s are coming back if you read Twitter. My answer? Might not be much about anything. I think these mets expected some cold results and now that it's not happening, pushing it into March. I mean the buzz from all this can't be because we are just spending tissue after tissue analyzing a 10mb split above the North Pole right? Clearly we get excited because we hope and expect results. My point is that just because we have a split, does not mean the CONUS is in for some sort of crazy cold and stormy stretch. There are a lot of other issues to work out first. I do think it will aid in some -NAO action later, but I am also concerned we lose more of a favorable Pacific id the EPS is right. I guess my whole attitude is to pump the brakes on the hype. But, that's just me. I am not writing it off or saying voodoo...I'm just not sold on the excitement here quite yet.

Very fair post.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

to employ a word y'all like to use on this particular weather-related social media ... voodoo, until some attributes can be established that point toward what is really going on... Those determinations have not yet been made.

The SSW ...first of all, masses of the stratospheric domain over the arctic will often "pulse" into warm from seemingly no where... but they remain static in altitude...tending to dissipate... If one bothers to go and actually study these occurrence.   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/   ... particularly focus on the bottom links under the heading, "Past Year's Annual Time Series" and really study the column fourth from the left, "NH" under "T- Anom".

You may begin to see a distinct pattern that differentiates downward/"downwelling" phenomenon from those that are just random fire offs of warm nodes that don't do much of anything but hang around at altitude for a couple few days before disappearing. 

More over, the correlation on the Arctic Oscillation is related to downwelling... No propagation lower in altitude, and the AO over decades is almost no-skill noise.  Also, for SSWs across the decades that have occurred after February 1st, the correlation with eventual mid latitude temperature anomaly distribution (which by the way, ...there is an almost 20 day time lag with all this to begin with...) tends to [apparently] get lost in on set of hemispheric changes associated with seasonal migration. 

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Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Is there any potential on friday through Saturday  with that stalled out front

Good question; hard to say...

That behavior with that boundary appears native to mainly this particular GFS run this morning..  The previous time intervals/synoptics there in et al... don't really match well, therefore there is continuity issues. In a 101 forecasting, a weather dude likes to see continuity ...meaning, repeating features across successive runs.

Which sort of is understandable given to the fast flow over all. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Ahh yes.  This is all fair.  I personally don't need all the cold over on this side anyway.  I just want a reversal of the persistent height/SLP pattern. The change may not end up being the most ideal pattern but I'll take a reshuffle over the se ridge of death.  Hm hasn't been on the big cold train...only on the blocking...which seems reasonable.  

I’m actually hoping for good blocking too. We can be ok with a mediocre pacific in March if we get s nice bowling ball under us. It’s happened before.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Good question; hard to say...

That behavior with that boundary appears native to mainly this particular GFS run this morning..  The previous time intervals/synoptics there in et al... don't really much well, therefore there is continuity issues. In a 101 forecasting, a weather dude likes to see continuity ...meaning, repeating features across successive runs.

Which sort of is understandable given to the fast flow over all. 

GEFS actually have something Saturday it seems. That’s been on and off guidance. 

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS actually have something Saturday it seems. That’s been on and off guidance. 

yeah ha, my statement was more for conceptual stuff...  I haven't honestly been paying much attention to much lately in this this general dearth of excitement :)    ...so you and others prolly have a better handle on "nuanced" chances out there over the next 10 days.

I'm actually more intrigued (for now...) how the Euro's attempting to have a couple of big warm blasts over that same time span.  I feel like this Thursday's warm "look" could be deceiving?  For a couple reasons..

1   ... the Euro and other guidance for that matter (less so in the GFS tho) have attempted to burgeon an eastern ridge and drive 850 mb temperatures to +8 C on a couple of mid-ranges since the cold broke mid January. All of which turned up more tepid relative to appeals... meaning, ended up cooler.

2   ... This (digression) I also believe is related to the same phenomenon that happened routinely during the last three consecutive summers... Regardless of season what's been tending to happen is, the ridge remains progressive; the 850s peel SE and ultimately fail (in some proportion) to get over NE; the end result is dimmed warmth relative to the original appeal.  It's like the 850s recede and the ridge rolls through gutted of warmth underneath.  interesting.

Anyway, I just don't trust balmy blasts in mid ranges until that propensity for failed maximization stops occurring.  It's really finding least excuse to fall short relative to patterns as a permanent motif spanning back across multiple seasons... Obviously, the patterns much of the times were also over built to begin with.. We'll see.  But then look what the Euro does D6-10?  wow, +10 with like days of WSW flow. I'm gonna go ahead and take the under then... 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Absolutely... sensible weather and reality often do part company - but I'll extend the conjecture: that is more so true in the gradation/ gradual modulation of memory.  At the time(s) it took place? I'm sure you or anyone else probably felt the cold when it was 8 or whatever F those mornings when the afternoons struggled to 25 - which it was - ...and was on a couple of occasions.

So why does the percipience move to a different memory ?

I think a goodly part of that, to be blunt, is that obsession/codependent sense of "joy" people have connected with snow, per se.  And, in the absence of it, ... that is at least in part what starts the modulating in the memory. In fact, I'd even speculate that if it average above normal by a tick or two but we had three blue bombs in that period, folks that engage in the 'dependency' would have a colder impression in their reflections of that journey. 

Granted, we have not had many memorable winter storms since the cold broke in around mid January... but it really has not been for lack of cold air in more concrete terms.  

Yeah. It's definitey about snow in terms of getting the forum emotionally riled up...and I agree we havent been totally lacking the cold either the past 2 weeks. It's not ideal but we've had it in place. But it's often just the luck of the draw...or as those who get offended by the idea of "luck"...it's chaos. Unpredictable chaos has conspired against the snowier outcomes despite some decent cold air masses off an on. In a parallel universe that front running shortwave on Friday night never happens and we have a bit of a shortwave to the north causing confluence which means today's event is a 8-12" overrunning beast with ice to the south of the snow...it's really not that hard to synoptically paint that picture within the CONUS upper air pattern this morning. But most of the masses really aren't too interested in parsing the reasons why it didn't happen...they are just grumpy it didn't happen and will let everyone know about it. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah. It's definitey about snow in terms of getting the forum emotionally riled up...and I agree we havent been totally lacking the cold either the past 2 weeks. It's not ideal but we've had it in place. But it's often just the luck of the draw...or as those who get offended by the idea of "luck"...it's chaos. Unpredictable chaos has conspired against the snowier outcomes despite some decent cold air masses off an on. In a parallel universe that front running shortwave on Friday night never happens and we have a bit of a shortwave to the north causing confluence which means today's event is a 8-12" overrunning beast with ice to the south of the snow...it's really not that hard to synoptically paint that picture within the CONUS upper air pattern this morning. But most of the masses really aren't too interested in parsing the reasons why it didn't happen...they are just grumpy it didn't happen and will let everyone know about it. 

Well, like you said, it's not ideal. Blocking would have forced this system south into an 8-12" snow, regardless....pattern doesn't have to be balmy to stink.

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah. It's definitey about snow in terms of getting the forum emotionally riled up...and I agree we havent been totally lacking the cold either the past 2 weeks. It's not ideal but we've had it in place. But it's often just the luck of the draw...or as those who get offended by the idea of "luck"...it's chaos. Unpredictable chaos has conspired against the snowier outcomes despite some decent cold air masses off an on. In a parallel universe that front running shortwave on Friday night never happens and we have a bit of a shortwave to the north causing confluence which means today's event is a 8-12" overrunning beast with ice to the south of the snow...it's really not that hard to synoptically paint that picture within the CONUS upper air pattern this morning. But most of the masses really aren't too interested in parsing the reasons why it didn't happen...they are just grumpy it didn't happen and will let everyone know about it. 

this is exactly true... And it's why [personally] keeping all options on the table until now-cast is the way to score better in this game.  I mean looking at a synoptic forecast...obviously, there are scenarios that can be ruled out with certitude - like, it prooobably won't be 94/72 tomorrow - we can say with some incomprehensible small interval of uncertainty ... that is a correct statement :)

But to your point, ... we were really inches in the grand scheme of things of having a major accretion issue too.   It's all about creating a kind of probability spectrum ... while keeping in mind, that shading is in flux to some degree (pun intended..)

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What this really is, is that over our side of the hemisphere is similar to an early phased -EPO ...but one that is stuck there. 

Typically, early -EPOs feature heights tending to rise over the Alaskan sector, while immediately downstream there is a mass-conserved/teleconnection for negative anomaly to carve it's way south near 120 W.

This is the labor before the reward for snow/cold lovers back here over eastern North America, because in the transience there is a ridge response tendency if not outright expression down stream over mid latitudes ...roughly centered on 90 W.  Eventually, the -EPO matures and begins to send mass into the PNA domain and that builds heights more into the Rockies... and then cold spills east along with enhancing baroclinicity and storms ...etc.

The only difference here that I can see from that design is that the pattern is not being moved in any direction there after, and so this latter stuff holding back.  ...pretty much in any guidance, right out to D10. 

The Euro persistence in stalling the pattern/continuity from 00z to 12z is remarkably clear and clad, ...immovably certain.  Scott's jest from early ... those proportions may actually be correct for Thursday.  That depiction could not be any cleaner for an unadulterated continental warm conveyor across mid latitudes of the CONUS. It's an amazing look .. I almost wonder if there could be some record highs in the western OV to SNE/upper MA in that look. Just need maybe another 2 or 3 C at 850 and I'd say that look in itself would be a slam dunk for record warm.  The nocturnals between Th Fr would be sick - talking 50s at night, turn the heat off to the house in mid February.  wow... THIS, after I just got done sermon why it's hard to trust really warm looks in mid ranges - heh. 

I'm still not sure I do... Just waiting for the something to materialize from the ether to f- this up too.

Anyway, it's like that early phase of a -EPO is stuck in that configuration.

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17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro turns into a furnace!

sure does ... need to get to D3 before I bite though.  I mean ...I'm sure it's headed for a mild stretch Thur-late Fri... but as to how much so needs to overcome some stuff.

As is though?  ... I wonder what the records are for those days.  This Euro run has nearly 3,000 miles of unimpeded WSW flow across the girth of the U.S., with +7 or so 850 air well mixed by the time said conveyor is leaving Logon enroute to London.   We are past February 10th now, which is the end date of the annual solar nadir (btw..) so, from this point forward, much to the chagrin of the beleaguered winter warriors of the forum... that factor is adding smacks to your already stingy red face of unrelenting atrocities... haha.  Seriously though, that could 72 as is

But, we're also running a horrible batting average spanning many many many months if not seasons where warm appeals routinely fall sort of 'what they could be' ...I'm sort of jaded there

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