February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[NorEastermass128]

We nape.  

I recall low 80s in VA around mid Feb last year...new February annual steroidal thaw regime?

[J Paul Gordon]

14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems must be deceiving then because the opposite is true...

So far, January is essentially within decimals of dead nuts normal at both ORH and HFD, and so far the first 10 days of February are -2 at both..

 

Goes to show you that sensible weather is as much a matter of perception as it is of "reality". If the ground is brown or barely white, for us snow lovers, it isn't "wintry" (barring a minus 20F windchill). If I were in the Berks or up here in southern Maine, I'm sure I would have concluded that we've had a better than average winter. Welcome to the quantum world if a weather weenie.

Schrodinger put a cat in a box with a vial of poison that would be released at some random time. Is the cat dead or alive? The quantum factor is that until the box is open the answer is both/neither (the quantum factor). Once the box is opened everything collapses into the singular state of dead or alive. Likewise, weather: has this  been a normal to cold winter? Once you give me the data I have to conclude that it has been. The snow factor, likewise. And it is all dependent on when the proverbial box is opened. In other words, the same question asked a month from now may be answered very differently. 

So much for philosophy. Any significant cold/snow on the horizon?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Sucks we get that while I'm away, but better that than a HECS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

lol, ssw ftl. If it is happenning in the strat which smarter guys know more than me...i believe it...but it is doing zero to produce a favorable ao/nao when it matters most, garbage. Im done tracking. Something pops in March ill enjoy it but this is trash right now. But hey, a cool and rainy spring with cutoffs is pretty much gtd, prepare now. 

Sorry Ginxy, I’m not snowshowing in Caribou enough to put lipstick on how terrible winter has been imby since Jan 5th. Now Feb is shot, its done. One month of cold with penny events topped off by one good 11” storm is not memorable nor enjoyable.

Me and Icey1872 gonna go do keg stands now. Bring on spring.

Too early to toss March. Maybe it doesn't work out, but I'm not ready to go there yet.

But if the winter is shot, I'd rather an "awful" mild pattern than a cold, dry hell...or string of 1-2" mixed bags.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just keep in mind that the NAO being pushed back does not necessarily mean that it's ultimately failed....we see H5 transitions initially rushed quite frequently.

I know it's maddening.

[ineedsnow]

Looks pretty meh the next couple weeks.. Im giving up on this winter.. March snows usually stink around here.. If we get them they melt pretty quick without much elevation.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Looks pretty meh the next couple weeks.. Im giving up on this winter.. March snows usually stink around here.. If we get them they melt pretty quick without much elevation.

I dont care how fast it melts, I want the euphoric experience of rotting under a deform counting above 18”, one at a time. That pack stuff is over and done with as we head into March. Give me the big storm and the memories it creates.

[MJO812]

Isotherm thinks the pattern will get better by late February into March.

Hope he is right.

[MJO812]

HM thinks the the Mid Atlantic hasn't seen their best snowstorm yet this winter.

Seems like a lot of people like March.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

HM thinks the the Mid Atlantic hasn't seen their best snowstorm yet this winter.

Seems like a lot of people like March.

There's def some evidence we finally flip back. Esp if AO/NAO cooperate which they actually might. But we will see. We've seen this strat stuff not work out plenty of times. 

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

HM thinks the the Mid Atlantic hasn't seen their best snowstorm yet this winter.

Seems like a lot of people like March.

That’s not exactly an Earth shattering call.

[dendrite]

GFS is still a lot more aggressive with that fropa on Friday. Gives the higher terrain some snow on Fri afternoon while the Euro is 60s. 

[CoastalWx]

The strat stuff is out of control and not being communicated properly. There are so many parts that determine weather in someone’s backyard. For someone who is just an amateur, you’d think the winters of the 1700s are coming back. You need cooperation from various oceanic basins. I wish people would communicate that. Instead people are just whacking it to every  graphic tracking the vertical flux of polar bear farts into the stratosphere and how it disrupts the vortex. It’s possible the best cold goes into Russia. 

[OSUmetstud]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

After the most hyped split ever, the vortex looks to regain itself again. 

What changed since yesterday?  

[OSUmetstud]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's def some evidence we finally flip back. Esp if AO/NAO cooperate which they actually might. But we will see. We've seen this strat stuff not work out plenty of times. 

Yeah nothing has changed.  I don't understand why suddenly "all hope is lost" **** Is going.  The best cold being in euroasia from the split was well communicated by the good medium long range guys. Also that the se ridge will take time to get beat down.  

[Hazey]

March 2012 or bust.

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

What changed since yesterday?  

?

[40/70 Benchmark]

These SSW scenarios are very complex and folks are right...they can either take place and not be very impactful, or be impactful but not manifest properly as to bring the goods to our BYs. This is why I stressed this as the lowest confidence portion of the seasonal. And I'm not try to be smug when I tell those who are frustrated that it's too early to call it....all I mean is we just don't know yet. 

I don't know a ton about the stratosphere either, so not trying to sound condescending....but I think we still have a shot here.

[jbenedet]

44 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS is still a lot more aggressive with that fropa on Friday. Gives the higher terrain some snow on Fri afternoon while the Euro is 60s. 

I think that will become a legit wintry SWFE for us. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I still feel strongly that the EPO reappear, too.

[OSUmetstud]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

?

Given that the ssw is only occuring now. How do we know it's effects?  What has changed since yesterday?  Do you not think it will be effective?  I thought hm is being pretty good with communicating the most likely results?  Do u not agree?  Or are u just bitching?  

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Goes to show you that sensible weather is as much a matter of perception as it is of "reality". If the ground is brown or barely white, for us snow lovers, it isn't "wintry" (barring a minus 20F windchill). If I were in the Berks or up here in southern Maine, I'm sure I would have concluded that we've had a better than average winter. Welcome to the quantum world if a weather weenie.

Schrodinger put a cat in a box with a vial of poison that would be released at some random time. Is the cat dead or alive? The quantum factor is that until the box is open the answer is both/neither (the quantum factor). Once the box is opened everything collapses into the singular state of dead or alive. Likewise, weather: has this  been a normal to cold winter? Once you give me the data I have to conclude that it has been. The snow factor, likewise. And it is all dependent on when the proverbial box is opened. In other words, the same question asked a month from now may be answered very differently. 

So much for philosophy. Any significant cold/snow on the horizon?

Absolutely... sensible weather and reality often do part company - but I'll extend the conjecture: that is more so true in the gradation/ gradual modulation of memory.  At the time(s) it took place? I'm sure you or anyone else probably felt the cold when it was 8 or whatever F those mornings when the afternoons struggled to 25 - which it was - ...and was on a couple of occasions.

So why does the percipience move to a different memory ?

I think a goodly part of that, to be blunt, is that obsession/codependent sense of "joy" people have connected with snow, per se.  And, in the absence of it, ... that is at least in part what starts the modulating in the memory. In fact, I'd even speculate that if it average above normal by a tick or two but we had three blue bombs in that period, folks that engage in the 'dependency' would have a colder impression in their reflections of that journey. 

Granted, we have not had many memorable winter storms since the cold broke in around mid January... but it really has not been for lack of cold air in more concrete terms.  

[Weatherexpert]

9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Given that the ssw is only occuring now. How do we know it's effects?  What has changed since yesterday?  Do you not think it will be effective?  I thought hm is being pretty good with communicating the most likely results?  Do u not agree?  Or are u just bitching?  

I'm going to have to stop you right there. First of all we don't need to say b******.  Second of all don't go after my brother Coastal who is 1. A meteorologist 2. A moderator.

that being said I have to agree with what Coastal WX has to say. You've need to know what you're talking about and let's not freak out over every single small weather change that occurs in a short period of time. Don't worry too much about the ssw it will be fine

[weathafella]

For the past month, this winter has mostly blown.   Not changes in that this week.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Given that the ssw is only occuring now. How do we know it's effects?  What has changed since yesterday?  Do you not think it will be effective?  I thought hm is being pretty good with communicating the most likely results?  Do u not agree?  Or are u just bitching?  

Nothing has changed since yesterday and we do not know it's effects. That's what is interesting. So may CONUS mets have been tweeting about this and all the energy traders are wondering what the buzz is all about since it looks like the 1700s are coming back if you read Twitter. My answer? Might not be much about anything. I think these mets expected some cold results and now that it's not happening, pushing it into March. I mean the buzz from all this can't be because we are just spending tissue after tissue analyzing a 10mb split above the North Pole right? Clearly we get excited because we hope and expect results. My point is that just because we have a split, does not mean the CONUS is in for some sort of crazy cold and stormy stretch. There are a lot of other issues to work out first. I do think it will aid in some -NAO action later, but I am also concerned we lose more of a favorable Pacific id the EPS is right. I guess my whole attitude is to pump the brakes on the hype. But, that's just me. I am not writing it off or saying voodoo...I'm just not sold on the excitement here quite yet.

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, Weatherexpert said:

I'm going to have to stop you right there. First of all we don't need to say b******.  Second of all don't go after my brother Coastal who is 1. A meteorologist 2. A moderator.

that being said I have to agree with what Coastal WX has to say. You've need to know what you're talking about and let's not freak out over every single small weather change that occurs in a short period of time. Don't worry too much about the ssw it will be fine

Ok buddy lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Hmmm and in this corner from Weymouth,Ma.

37 and RN

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nothing has changed since yesterday and we do not know it's effects. That's what is interesting. So may CONUS mets have been tweeting about this and all the energy traders are wondering what the buzz is all about since it looks like the 1700s are coming back if you read Twitter. My answer? Might not be much about anything. I think these mets expected some cold results and now that it's not happening, pushing it into March. I mean the buzz from all this can't be because we are just spending tissue after tissue analyzing a 10mb split above the North Pole right? Clearly we get excited because we hope and expect results. My point is that just because we have a split, does not mean the CONUS is in for some sort of crazy cold and stormy stretch. There are a lot of other issues to work out first. I do think it will aid in some -NAO action later, but I am also concerned we lose more of a favorable Pacific id the EPS is right. I guess my whole attitude is to pump the brakes on the hype. But, that's just me. I am not writing it off or saying voodoo...I'm just not sold on the excitement here quite yet.

Ahh yes.  This is all fair.  I personally don't need all the cold over on this side anyway.  I just want a reversal of the persistent height/SLP pattern. The change may not end up being the most ideal pattern but I'll take a reshuffle over the se ridge of death.  Hm hasn't been on the big cold train...only on the blocking...which seems reasonable.  

[rimetree]

Hoping we can at least keep the mountains from losing too much over the next couple weeks and then transition to some decent cold and snow the week of Feb 26 for ski vacation at Loon.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

When Energy traders and $$ is involved does talk of a SSW that splits vortex enough to move commodities to reprice for colder future weather