February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

March has looked full Morch for sometime. Early spring is near 

I hope your joking. But if the weeklys are correct and everything flys past us to Europe you could be on to something 

[dendrite]

I really thought March was a winter month again. There must be some kind of emotional investment for a warm one. Did we get all of the acorns this year before the snow came?

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I hope your joking. But if the weeklys are correct and everything flys past us to Europe you could be on to something 

Just don’t buy into any of the SSW stuff. Not happening where it would help us 

[Hazey]

20 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I'm starting to feel better about us going forward too.  I think we lose the Atlantic death ridge. It doesn't look super cold but a more active storm south of us later in the month.  

Probably too little too late unless it's going 2015 on us. I'm ok going below normal. It's our regression season. They happen.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’ve been less than impressed with the look for SNE for days now. Just doesn’t look favorable for much more than a mixed bag at best.

[Damage In Tolland]

All joking aside..what a bleak looking long range over the past 24-36 hours. Tomorrow’s event might be about it for Feb. You could maybe argue for something the week of the 20th, but this looks bad moving forward. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All joking aside..what a bleak looking long range over the past 24-36 hours. Tomorrow’s event might be about it for Feb. You could maybe argue for something the week of the 20th, but this looks bad moving forward. 

Euro looks like it may score a rare medium range loss to the GFS....Euro was the one more optimistic models about this weekend. It looks like it has mostly caved today. Though the pattern doesn't look that bad 11-15...we could score something in that look. Next week looks pretty useless though.

[CoastalWx]

SE ridge is killing us. We need that to go away. The rest of the hemispheric look isn't bad. +PNA please.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

SE ridge is killing us. We need that to go away. The rest of the hemispheric look isn't bad. +PNA please.

Decent ridging develops up near AK around D10-11...hopefully that will trend heights lower in the east eventually as we get closer.

 

Or we can try and offer rum to Jobu to get a -NAO.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Decent ridging develops up near AK around D10-11...hopefully that will trend heights lower in the east eventually as we get closer.

 

Or we can try and offer rum to Jobu to get a -NAO.

That look makes me want to reach for a bottle of Rum. Ugh. Hopefully we can turn it around later this month.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Decent ridging develops up near AK around D10-11...hopefully that will trend heights lower in the east eventually as we get closer.

 

Or we can try and offer rum to Jobu to get a -NAO.

The problem is, even if we had a -NAO temps are too warm for anything but rain. We still need a full scale pattern change for the last week of feb in to March. If not (discounting dec an early Jan) this is a very 11/12 type winter where “the big” pattern change is right around the corner until we run out of time

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The problem is, even if we had a -NAO temps are too warm for anything but rain. We still need a full scale pattern change for the last week of feb in to March. If not (discounting dec an early Jan) this is a very 11/12 type winter where “the big” pattern change is right around the corner until we run out of time

Well it depends where...for a lot of New England it can work. Mid-atlantic prob not. It's def not a great pattenr, but NNE hopefully can get some events to build the ski areas as we go into march. Kind of a bummer about this weekend...GFS is scoring the coup on that one. Unfortunately it means a garbage solution. The euro was trying previously to give some decent snows to the mountains.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well it depends where...for a lot of New England it can work. Mid-atlantic prob not. It's def not a great pattenr, but NNE hopefully can get some events to build the ski areas as we go into march. Kind of a bummer about this weekend...GFS is scoring the coup on that one. Unfortunately it means a garbage solution. The euro was trying previously to give some decent snows to the mountains.

I’m still holding out hope for the weekend system but as of right now it looks like maybe a white face, jay and sugarloaf type deal. At least we have tomorrow...

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw ... the GEFs mean is picking up on an apparent SSW ... or something similar to a destablization of the thermal layout at altitudes (p-coordinates) heading through the next 10 days. 

This is probably correlated, 'late-ish SSW' given the combination of solar minimum with QBO phasing..  

[OSUmetstud]

3 hours ago, Hazey said:

Probably too little too late unless it's going 2015 on us. I'm ok going below normal. It's our regression season. They happen.

Yeah but we can still score big storms late Feb into March regardless of whether we make normal or not. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Things really didn’t go the way most forecasters thought they would 

 

[LurkerBoy]

52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Things really didn’t go the way most forecasters thought they would 

 

This sucks! Oh wells 

[codfishsnowman]

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Things really didn’t go the way most forecasters thought they would 

 

yes but this is when nne cleans up

[A Moonlit Sky]

1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

yes but this is when nne cleans up

Cool for them, but hard to take for what may end up being the third below average snow year in a row here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I’m ready for spring. Oil buying is annoying snd Feb looks shot.

[EastonSN+]

I cant give up. Have not had a below average snowfall season since 2011-2012. Only 4 in 17 winters. So close this winter. 

[8611Blizz]

http://gph.is/290h4UH

[Ginx snewx]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks like it may score a rare medium range loss to the GFS....Euro was the one more optimistic models about this weekend. It looks like it has mostly caved today. Though the pattern doesn't look that bad 11-15...we could score something in that look. Next week looks pretty useless though.

I don't think NNE shares that sentiment though. Wax um up

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The pattern moving forward is garbage. Clock is ticking, as we piss away our best climo snow month

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks like it may score a rare medium range loss to the GFS....Euro was the one more optimistic models about this weekend. It looks like it has mostly caved today. Though the pattern doesn't look that bad 11-15...we could score something in that look. Next week looks pretty useless though.

I dodged a bullet.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, Hazey said:

Looking like you guys in SNE might end up with a bookend winter. Good December and Possibly March with sub par Jan and Feb.

That's the plan as far as I'm concerned.

Hopefully the backend works out.

[WinterWolf]

11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All joking aside..what a bleak looking long range over the past 24-36 hours. Tomorrow’s event might be about it for Feb. You could maybe argue for something the week of the 20th, but this looks bad moving forward. 

Wow, your thinking on Monday morning was that we add more snow this upcoming weekend.  I remember responding to your post Monday  morning in the other thread, and saying it looked a lot more like rain and not snow for this weekend, and you were surprised I thought that.  

[CoastalWx]

The long range has looked rather meh for awhile. I know many thought I was being grumpy, but it fell apart over a week ago. That was a complete and utter breakdown from guidance within 1 week. We may have some chances, it’s just not a favorable look. Hopefully it gets better toward the end of the month.

[powderfreak]

Big changes in the 00z GFS and ECM... keeps us all snow through the weekend now in the mountains of NNE.

BTV AFD knows where our priorities are at.  It's all about the skiing and riding.

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 208 AM EST Wednesday...A relatively active pattern for this upcoming weekend...with several weak systems riding along boundary in progressive westerly flow aloft. First round of light accumulating snow occurs Friday into early Saturday morning with still some uncertainty on exact placement of heaviest qpf/snowfall. NAM/ECMWF continue to show central/northern cwa...while GFS is central/southern areas. Have bumped pops into the likely/cat range with qpf btwn 0.10 and 0.25 anticipated...should result in 1 to 3 inches valleys and 2 to 6 inches in the mountains. Guidance continues to show good 5h vort in the flow aloft...along with enhanced band of mid level moisture...and weak sfc boundary draped across our cwa. While not the most impressive looking system...several more inches of snow...will only make the skiing and riding better across our region. Temps mainly teens for lows Friday Night and mid 20s to lower 30s for highs on Saturday. After a brief break...additional moisture and energy is expected to impact our cwa late Saturday Night into Sunday with another round of precip. The ecmwf has trended much colder with this system...and now shows 925mb to 850mb temps staying below 0c...resulting in more snow and less rain. Meanwhile...GFS continues to show 925mb to 850mb 0C line bisecting our central cwa...with a cold rain south and mainly snow north. GFS/ECMWF generally agree on weak elongated surface low pres tracking from the mid Atlantic States into Southern New England by Sunday afternoon with a slug of moisture spreading across our fa. Given the uncertainty in low level thermal profiles and big jump in latest ecmwf guidance...i have continued to mention a mix of rain/snow with mainly snow over northern NY/VT. Also...have continued to mention likely pops for this system...with temps mainly in the 20s northern NY to upper 30s southern VT. Expect in the upcoming days we will be able to fine tune the forecast...and would not be surprised if colder solutions occur...especially if surface low pres tracks to our south. Why not keep the parade of snow events going until further notice and continue to improve on the snow depths, especially across the mountains.

[CoastalWx]

Congrats to the moose.