February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[moneypitmike]

Yup.  About 2-2.5" since then.If things don't play out this week, just hang it up and start prepping for lawn season. 

At least we get a day of cool weather today.  The kind of day  the dog wants to come back inside ever 20 minutes for 10 minutes and then wants to go back outside.

18.9/10

[SnowHole413]

Yeah I’m with you guys. If next week doesn’t work out then ima hang it up. Another crap winter here. Thought we would get a few SWFE to help us out this year

[CoastalWx]

Take what you can get. That's how you need to look at it. It's not ideal, but workable...esp inland.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

IDK Euro owned 2011 the year save a horse was born

There was also more blocking that year. 

Anyway,  there will always be exceptions, but in general faster, more progressive flow will be hell on guidance.

[moneypitmike]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Take what you can get. That's how you need to look at it. It's not ideal, but workable...esp inland.

If you consider taking cutters or whiffs and making them into 1-2" events as 'workable', I suppose you're right.  That's what we've experienced for several weeks now.  We meh our way toward March.

18.2/9

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Take what you can get. That's how you need to look at it. It's not ideal, but workable...esp inland.

Don't have a choice, or else I'd have given back everything but 12-9, xmas and the blizzard.

Keep next week, too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

If you consider taking cutters or whiffs and making them into 1-2" events as 'workable', I suppose you're right.  That's what we've experienced for several weeks now.  We meh our way toward March.

18.2/9

I love how you punctuate tirades with a quiescent little temp drop lol

"This winter blows, life sucks and so doesn't everyone in it. Everyone claiming otherwise are degenerate pieces of $hit and should kill themselves!! Where in the #uck is my snow!!!!"

PS: 18.2/9 (Calm, subtle tone)

 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love how you punctuate tirades with a quiescent little temp drop lol

"This winter blows, life sucks and so doesn't everyone in it. Everyone claiming otherwise are degenerate pieces of $hit and should kill themselves!! Where in the #uck is my snow!!!!"

PS: 18.2/9 (Calm, subtle tone)

 

LOL.

17.9/8

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't have a choice, or else I'd have given back everything but 12-9, xmas and the blizzard.

Keep next week, too.

Wednesday still is in the cards, esp inland. May not be a small event either. 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Wednesday still is in the cards, esp inland. May not be a small event either. 

I'm liking the look of that.....at this time range in a fast pattern though, caution is the way to go.  I'm flying out of BDL to MI that afternoon; hopefully no problems getting out if it plays out in a big way.

17.5/7

[EastonSN+]

Just need 8 inches to get to average. Even though things don't look great I think sne can score a couple more times before the end of March. Next week does show on GFS and GGEM that we can get a couple inches before the flip to rain.

Even if they are a scattering of 1 to 3 inch events I want to be able to say "only 4 below average snowfall winters in 18 years!" Quite the accomplishment considering the previous 18 years.

22/7

[Whineminster]

Soooo Monday is toast? 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Whineminster said:

Soooo Monday is toast? 

No

[Whineminster]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

No

I just got 6" out of today's event, so if we get over 5" in Monday I'll be content. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wednesday still is in the cards, esp inland. May not be a small event either. 

It is still in the cards...I was just melting.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Wow , 6" ! In Westminster

The divide in fitchburg is prolly crazy

 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wow , 6" ! In Westminster

The divide in fitchburg is prolly crazy

 

How much for Lunenburg?

[Ginx snewx]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its gets a day or two earlier each year, too..it was like 2/10 last season

We birthday snow on the GFS

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No

9 inches off the 12 we promised  4 days ago for the next 10, we hope Wed takes us to the top

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I just got 6" out of today's event, so if we get over 5" in Monday I'll be content. 

[MJO812]

Winter might be over

[rimetree]

We've had some good events on or around Valentine's Day in the past. GFS kinda hints at something in that time frame...long ways out but wouldn't be surprise if we have something to track by next weekend.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Winter might be over

I heard 6 more weeks on the news this morning. 

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Winter might be over

GEFS say what are you smokin

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

9 inches off the 12 we promised  4 days ago for the next 10, we hope Wed takes us to the top

How much you get?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Wednesday is the potential big ticket for this week.  Euro didn't look terrible. Sunday looks meager but I'll stay tuned. 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How much you get?

2 I posted pics

[Typhoon Tip]

This fast flow is something ... The wave mechanics that governs the Monday quick progressive system will be just nosing over land upon ...whatever it is NOAA uses to initialize the 18z model runs, today..  Prior to that particular interval ... those mechanics are rocketing over the ridge arc centered ~ 130 W.  To really drill into it ... one that knows what they are looking at could match satellite/WV loops against the modeling position and apparent potency to glean some sense of how well is the handling of that feature.   

So it comes on board this afternoon... prooobably more important for the 00z initialization (just a guess), than it will be for the 18z ... but if there is some form of handling/mophologies back east upon the 18z ...that wouldn't surprise me either.  Or ..neither ... perhaps the assimilation and interpolations ...or whatever satellite sounding techniques NOAA uses for the eastern Pac will prove sufficient. We'll see.. 

In any event, the fast flow then conveys said disturbance into the MV...where it seems to demise ...lost in the compression of the gradient saturated geopotential medium.  If for some reason it comes in stronger, however, that could change things for how that system emerges/handled over the EC.  A stronger system would not in this type of pattern curl toward the Lakes.. it would more like 'carve' farther east.  You need a N-S meridional flow already tending for stronger systems to feed-back in constructing a west position.. .When the flow is fast and flat, the waves are conserved the other way. 

The same sort of circumstantial limitations/deterministic headaches are also in place for that next ordeal long about next Wed/Thur.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

9 inches off the 12 we promised  4 days ago for the next 10, we hope Wed takes us to the top

I don't think your area is very representative, though....you have been in a good spot.

My area isn't either, at the other end of the spectrum with 1" during that same period, but the point is that for a good deal of the region its been underwhelming.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think your area is very representative, though....you have been in a good spot.

We forecast for our backyards.  From Kev to me has had 7 to 9 so far. Scored on Wed