CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Syrmax said: Question. Does the GFS even have a wheelhouse? Nam not GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Question. Does the GFS even have a wheelhouse? You know the story of the blind squirrel, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Actually the bulk of the storm is in the 48-60 hour range. Isn’t 48 getting into the wheelhouse? From a LP placement perspective, I'd agree. From a QPF perspective, I'd say 24-48 hrs is best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 NAM usually overdoes QPF. I’d take half of what it’s showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Can't wait till the GFS 12Z comes out with its flooding rain scenario. I still don't think I'd be too confident until we get another cycle of runs with consistency...thinking Euro, GEM, Ukie...12z NAM has pretty much held serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 OH my, look at how the Sick UVV's/ Omega intersects the snow growth region, lol, it would be snowing 3-4"/hr if this were to come to fruition. Snow Growth is through the roof with this one, but I'm not getting excited, YET! Notice just off the deck temps drop back into to the upper 20's, so plenty cold enough throughout the BL! Last one, look at the wind profile, lol, it doesn't know what to do, lol, which is creating havoc up above indicative of the sick sick Omega values. This could be the one but I digress, lol, back to reality! 27F at 12Z Friday with Super heavy snow. Suffice to say, Fridays commute is going to be a total nightmare and coming home may not be all that much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12Z GFS further south with the primary through 30. 850 is slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 GFS is now South. Or inline with everyone else. It was always an outlier. Even among its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: GFS is now South. Or inline with everyone else. It was always an outlier. Even among its ensembles. Damn...is this thing really going to happen?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Nice SkewT grabs Ty. Was wondering how the intense Omega was positioned vs the SGZ ... thats close to an ideal scenario for SN+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Nice SkewT grabs Ty. Was wondering how the intense Omega was positioned vs the SGZ ... thats close to an ideal scenario for SN+. As about as Ideal as it can be! We may experience a Nor'Easter type system here in CNY, with fierce howling winds coming from the NE with heavy wet boiler plate type snow where heart attacks happen as ppl try to shovel their walkways. This is not the snow to do it in and for all you elderly, pay some 20 yr old to do it and save your life! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 GFS 10/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 26 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: GFS 10/1 Dang. That's a lot of QFP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 yes it is, nearly 2", an 1" rn/1" sn, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 34 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: As about as Ideal as it can be! We may experience a Nor'Easter type system here in CNY, with fierce howling winds coming from the NE with heavy wet boiler plate type snow where heart attacks happen as ppl try to shovel their walkways. This is not the snow to do it in and for all you elderly, pay some 20 yr old to do it and save your life! At 700 mb your about -8. Anything below say -4 is golden. Looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I finally took the time to try and understand scew t chart. All this science is gonna rub off eventually. Please don’t quiz me on the dry abiatic rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Well the NAM has clearly outperformed the GFS. Again. GFS solution looks like the NAM, only it took another 24 hrs to get there. Did the NAM get an upgrade this year? I know the GFS did- hasn’t been visible. Cranky’s daily write up calls for 1-2’ for someone in the Buf- Bing corridor. He thinks it’s a big one! Now is usually when I get my over eager heart broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 NAM totals are almost always overdone but the January 2016 atlantic blizzard forecasting pitted an amped, juiced up NAM model vs a suppressed GFS/Euro run after run and guess which one pulled a epic coup. https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2016/01/24/forecast-review-for-the-blizzard-of-january-23-2016/ Always gives me at least the slightest hope in NAMbo being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, WxNoob said: NAM totals are almost always overdone but the January 2016 atlantic blizzard forecasting pitted an amped, juiced up NAM model vs a suppressed GFS/Euro run after run and guess which one pulled a epic coup. https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2016/01/24/forecast-review-for-the-blizzard-of-january-23-2016/ Always gives me at least the slightest hope in NAMbo being right. I think NAM blowout qpf also scored a coup in one or both of the Snowmageddons down in the mid Atlantic a few years back. But usually it's overdone. With likely lower ratios this storm i'd take the under on any of its clown maps, although positioning of qpf is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I think NAM blowout qpf also scored a coup in one or both of the Snowmageddons down in the mid Atlantic a few years back. But usually it's overdone. With likely lower ratios this storm i'd take the under on any of its clown maps, although positioning of qpf is another story. And last year's March storm, NAM wasn't far off 36 hours out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Anyone have any EURO graphics they can share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 hearing it came in colder and further South and we really cant spare a SOuthward trend at this pt but the Euro always looked good for this area so I don't know what to think right about now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Wivb in buffalo has significantly upped their totals to 6 to 12 area wide and potentially more as you head towards the lake Ontario counties...starting to take shape!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Massive euro hit for WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Massive euro hit for WNY Thats a ton of initial rain, then a 6-12" with perhaps spots hitting the 18" mark in the higher elevations. Definitely a nice banger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 KBGM initial forecast Seems reasonable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Thats a ton of initial rain, then a 6-12" with perhaps spots hitting the 18" mark in the higher elevations. Definitely a nice banger! That’s snow QPF... after the rain, not total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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