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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Microscopic flakes. I forgot what a real snowflake looks like. ^_^

Yeah it’s literally like it’s raining snow grains the flakes are so tiny, and that park with constant thunder snow and almost waist deep snow was just epic. I’m ready for spring after this “snow” event and can’t wait until next winter as you said the extreme lake effect events we get in November and December just can’t be compared against. If history is correct we should see a blockbuster sometime next season with a major lake effect event coming every 4-5 (2001,2006,2010,2014)  so now it should be 18-19 if the pattern continues :) 

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I just saw this:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
225 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018

NYZ006>008-100330-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0051.180210T0000Z-180211T0000Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
225 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times.
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Wasn't it you Max who posted about the rates or ratios today would be great compared to what they were with Friday's excuse me Wednesday and Thursday's event or am I thinking something different? You actually took an excerpt from either binghamton's or Buffalo's afternoon discussion and posted it, now I remember.

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21 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

We're going to be getting into some pretty hefty returns real soon CNY WX

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I see on radar that there’s heavier returns moving towards us. 1.25 inches as of 6. What’s interesting is the time cast on channel 9 has the edge of the dryslot moving right up to the Onondaga/Oswego county border. We’ll see where it sets up. Could have a big impact on our totals. 

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Its actually been snowing at a pretty good clip here in So. Oswego County for the past couple hrs, and the heavier returns seem to be backbuilding so the next few hrs we'll at least see an 1" to perhaps 2".  Hoping 6-8" by morning, as that would be perfect for the existing WWA.  I'm not liking the last wave as it looks to bring with it some much warmer air.  I haven't looked at any guidance today but nothing was posted so I figure nothing has changed, as far as precip type is concerned,as we could possibly see the whole kitchen sink thrown at us with this last event.  Snow, freezing rain, and sleet will be seen throughout the day Sunday, into the evening hrs perhaps before turning into plain liquid then ending with a little snow for a period. The million dollar question is where exactly this stalled front sets up as 50-100 miles can make all the difference in the world, so lets keep our fingers crossed.

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We have quite a bit of frontogenesis going on overhead with this front thats meandering through the area but it creating some nice additional lift throughout the area.

8fnt_sf.gif?1518227664180

We also still have quite a bit of Thermal Advection at both H850 and H700.

tadv_sf.gif?1518227822778

H700

7tad_sf.gif?1518227859418

Also, surface frontogenesis is quite nice especially out in WNY but it should make its way over this way as well.  You can clearly see where the front is as there's a sourtherly flow up to about just South of KSYR but then they go ESE. This happens then length of the thruway from KSYR to KBUF and beyond back through OH and IN.

sfnt.gif?1518227893257

All nice stuff that should allow the light, to a times, moderate snow to continue to fall throughout the night.  Whats ultimately going to be our demise is both the H700 and H850 temp advection regime's as they should continue to advect warmer air into the area throughout the day tomorrow, allowing the temp to eclipse the freezing mark, and we all know what that means.

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If this is even close to being right an coming to fruition then from about 04Z through 08Z we can see some nice rates with a substantial jump in flake size as the snow growth region, albeit shallow, doos bisect the highest Omega values and RH so we'll see how things are lookin from 11pm through 3AM a 5 hr period where rates can exceed 1"/hr. I'm just reading what I'm lookin at and this is being forecasted by the RAP model.

rap_2018021001_005_43.44--76.39.png

NAM same time for comparison sake.

nam_2018021000_006_43.36--76.38.png

GFS, 

gfs_2018020918_012_43.5--76.25.png

HRRR at 06Z is the coldest at 26F

hrrr_2018021001_005_43.41--76.35.png

They all look quite similar with the GFS and the HRRR probably drop the heaviest snow for that specific time frame but their temp profiles are much much different with the GFS being above freezing while the HRRR is at 26F! The NAMN and RAP are also in the upper 20's so that tells me that the GFS temp is wrong but it may be the only right one, lol! So it'll be interesting to see where the temps end up at 006Z.

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I'm trying to figure out why the radar looks so anemic with patches of heavier returns moving through with no real precip shield. There's plenty of moisture, plenty of lift with a stalled out front just to our South which should be enhancing the snowfall but it just doesn't wanna, lol! perfect temps in the upper 20's and we still can't get a decent snowfall, lol.

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7 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I'm trying to figure out why the radar looks so anemic with patches of heavier returns moving through with no real precip shield. There's plenty of moisture, plenty of lift with a stalled out front just to our South which should be enhancing the snowfall but it just doesn't wanna, lol! perfect temps in the upper 20's and we still can't get a decent snowfall, lol.

I've been trying to figure this out all day. What a fricken bust here, what a joke there even a WWA.

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