Syrmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 KBGM radar showing some solid action down that way. I had them at 9.5" and ALB at 10.5" for the snowfall contest I'm in and it looks like that will deliver. Flake size improving downtown SYR after about a half hour relative lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 inches here. Halfway to my 6 inch goal. If we can stay in decent rates until 4-5 I should make it. Any lake effect after this is icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 We should accumulate well over the next few hours as flakes continue to get larger and larger.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 At 12:45, exactly 4.0" on the board.....I have cleared it, since I saw my first flakes at 6:45am which conforms to the "clearing no more frequently than every 6 hours" NWS guidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 And the best forcing is just entering CNY....our heaviest snow will be from now until 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Had a little bit of a lull but it is picking up again with a more productive flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: At 12:45, exactly 4.0" on the board.....I have cleared it, since I saw my first flakes at 6:45am which conforms to the "clearing no more frequently than every 6 hours" NWS guidelines. sounds about right 3/4" per hr rate overall. About what we expected out of this. Nothing extreme but not Bust-o-genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Moderate snow continues with about 4" or so. Cold, temperature at 19. The mix line is moving steadily north, but hopefully it hits a wall somewhere south of KALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stash said: Moderate snow continues with about 4" or so. Cold, temperature at 19. The mix line is moving steadily north, but hopefully it hits a wall somewhere south of KALB. I think you're safe....or maybe a brief mix...I see you topping out at 7-9" by 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Euro is decent for Friday night-sat 0.4” kfzy 0.4” kroc 0.5” kbuf 0.3” ksyr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, Syrmax said: sounds about right 3/4" per hr rate overall. About what we expected out of this. Nothing extreme but not Bust-o-genesis. I'm thinking that between 2:30 and about 4:30 we exceed 1"/hr. stuff, as the last band to our west moves through....with the flake size improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Closing in on 5" here and I'm satisfied as the best part is yet to come with hours of WNW flow with ample moisture, nice lapse rates and practically 0 shear in the BL which all spells 3-6 additional inches resulting in totals reaching 12-15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4" here so far. Had about a 30 min lull and now back to steady snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Next event is a light snow event as we miss the heaviest to the SE, looks about 1/4” liquid region wide..That would be sat night-Sunday am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Looks like a decent overrunning event from Fri-Sun but temps look marginal at best. what were those numbers you just posted in your last post? it said .4" for kfzy and .6" for kbuf but when was that for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Euro puts out over a inch liquid after today. For the next 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Friday afternoon into early Saturday am..Surface temp 23-27 for Fulton.. Another couple/few inches on Sunday night especially closer to you lake.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Next event is a light snow event as we miss the heaviest to the SE, looks about 1/4” liquid region wide..That would be sat night-Sunday am.. so that's a separate system from the fri-sat qpf you posted just before that? So confused here...so much snow. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 UKIE is huge event for Upstate 1-2' depending on ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Kuchera showing 20” on about 1 1/2” of precipitation during the week, includes today’s 1/2” liquid.. Basically 3 separate light-moderate events with brief breaks in between.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: UKIE is huge event for Upstate 1-2' depending on ratios Sadly, its the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 SWS ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING... Widespread moderate to heavy snow will persist across the area through the early evening including the evening commute. Snowfall rates of an inch per hour can be expected. This will coat roads quickly...resulting in slippery driving conditions on area roadways. Visibilities will be reduced to a quarter of a mile or less at times. If traveling...slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Sadly, its the Ukie. The second most accurate model the last few years according to model verification page. EURO UKIE GFS GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: UKIE is huge event for Upstate 1-2' depending on ratios Love that hole over Rochester. Tough run lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The second most accurate model the last few years according to model verification page. EURO UKIE GFS GEM Interesting. My perception clearly not recent. It used to be about as useful as the NAVGEM, which shows consistent snowfall for Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 pm measurement: 3" new snow, 4" total depth. Sun dimly visible. Nice snowfall but not exactly warning level... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Interesting. My perception clearly not recent. It used to be about as useful as the NAVGEM, which shows consistent snowfall for Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 The GFS made some advancements this year to catch up to the UK and Euro but not quite there. This is a small sample size, but it averages out pretty close to these percentages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The GFS made some advancements this year to catch up to the UK and Euro but not quite there. This is a small sample size, but it averages out pretty close to these percentages. Ukie Verification pretty good at H500. Never been in love with its surface depictions. I think it sucked many years ago and i just never went back to it with all the other NWP floating around today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 I measured 3.5" so a little bit of a bust here. Still very scenic out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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