CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 IMO, there's barely any upper lvl support with this system, cause if there was, these totals everyone it throwing around, would be very easy to get to but since there isn't any, we have to rely on whatever mid-level support there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 About an inch after 2 hours. Intensity is picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 This is gonna be a huge bust here, we’ll be lucky to see 4” in Wyoming County. Seriously. Snowing for 3 hours maybe an inch and a half down. Back end is moving quick. Snow will be over about 2pm here if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 KBUF north looks to be in the pivot point of deformation zone. They will have the highest totals with Ontarios enhancement. Highest rates next few hours. Will be some 10"+ totals in Niagara county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Roc look good. I would say 2 inches already. Another 4 to 6 to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: KBUF north looks to be in the pivot point of deformation zone. They will have the highest totals with Ontarios enhancement. Highest rates next few hours. Will be some 10"+ totals in Niagara county. Not one model picked up on the lake enhancement over Niagara County, I think the highest totals west of the Tug will be found there. Meanwhile the areas with warning will be lucky to see advisory snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, WesterlyWx said: Not one model picked up on the lake enhancement over Niagara County, I think the highest totals west of the Tug will be found there. Meanwhile the areas with warning will be lucky to see advisory snows... Yeah about 3-4 hours of 1-2" per hour going for those places and they were under that really heavy band earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Looking past the current event for a moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Next sysem looks good for 3 to 6 for western ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Next sysem looks good for 3 to 6 for western ny I'd actually say a lot more than that. It's a really long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 What you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: What you thinking? 6-12" from Fri-Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: KBUF north looks to be in the pivot point of deformation zone. They will have the highest totals with Ontarios enhancement. Highest rates next few hours. Will be some 10"+ totals in Niagara county. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Would think KBUF would upgrade Niagara & Orleans to warnings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I could see that. Kinda comes in 2 parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Actually looks like 3 parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Been snowing 3 hours in SYR...eyeballing about 2". Pretty decent rate now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Been moderate here. Small flakes still...not too impressive...2.5" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Been snowing 3 hours in SYR...eyeballing about 2". Pretty decent rate now. Here in Bayberry, 2.8" as of 11:15. Rates are at their highest right now...flake size is marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Looking at around 2” in Irondequoit. Very inefficient flakes. Finally improving. The lake is gonna need to bail us out. Looks like it’s gonna try. Synoptic is a disappointment so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 At work but eyeballing 4-5" here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Always with a track like this. Ontario trying to do the heavy lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Looks like a nice 3 4 hour boost from lake coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I just got back from a trip to Wegmans about 5 miles away. Roads are not in good shape, completely snow covered and slippery. Visibility is around a quarter of a mile. I’m up to 2 1/4 inches in 3 hours, over an inch in the last hour. Flakes are almost icy, that is one negative so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Definitely good few inches down, flake size seems to be improving as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, tim123 said: Looks like a nice 3 4 hour boost from lake coming 25 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Looking at around 2” in Irondequoit. Very inefficient flakes. Finally improving. The lake is gonna need to bail us out. Looks like it’s gonna try. Synoptic is a disappointment so far. KBUF AFD AM update: As the winds continues to back around to the west/northwest by early Thursday morning, lake parameters become maximized with additional synoptic moisture attendant to a weak trailing shortwave in the cyclonic flow aloft. This should result in a fairly coherent lake shore hugging band along the Lake Ontario south shore, coming inland from near Webster across Wayne County to N. Cayuga. Will need to watch how this band develops closely, as it may require extended or additional headlines for lake effect snows lingering into Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Looks like maybe 2" here. Been barely snowing most of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: Looks like maybe 2" here. Been barely snowing most of the morning. Frustrating. You’ll get into the enhanced area that should continue for you through the night. Your fun is just beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Frustrating. You’ll get into the enhanced area that should continue for you through the night. Your fun is just beginning. Maybe...we'll see how this shakes out. I was thinking 8" for SYR and IMBY, 6" ROC but i suspect we will come up closer to 5-6". Which is fairly pedestrian for these parts. But...if we can pick up another 2-4" off the lake afterwards, we could end up with low double digits. I've seen this often here...we don't jackpot synoptically but throw in the lake afterwards and its all good. Personally, i don't care where it comes from, or how, its net results that count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 About 4" in Depew.. Looks like the upper end of the 4 to 8 inches will be realized buffalo and North. Friday through Sunday also looks very interesting as well. Fun next few days!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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