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Upstate/Eastern New York


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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Not sure why they lowered amounts especially considering they were touting ratios, most models still showing 0.5”-0.70 of precipitation..

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Why are you surprised ? That’s what they do every single time lol. By this afternoon they’ll issue warnings but drop totals further on their maps. Also very petty but why is Monroe county under a watch when their map shows half the county at 4-6” and half the county at 6-8” with no 8-12” but yet even S Erie county is mostly 6-8” with a little pocket of 8-12” but yet no watch, doesn’t make sense...

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There is no way KBGM is hoisting any warnings after what I just saw on the 06Z GFS.  Its barely advisory lvl stuff, lol.  Their waiting on 1 more model run before they make any decisions. What can possibly change within 6 hrs that could impact a forecast that much, seriously. Hoist Advisories already and if it turns out to be a warning, so be it, but no way whats showing constitutes any warnings anywhere but perhaps the Dacks.

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GGEM

snku_acc.us_ne.png

Their all pretty much in the slot of 6-10" area wide so I don't know what both offices will do this afternoon. I guess it doesn't matter as we know its gonna snow and that's good enough for us as we'll worry about totals when the event is all said and done, plus we have a little LES to contend with.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looks decent to me.

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Not having a -NAO is both hurting us and helping us at the same time. If there was one, they'd slow get stronger and most likely phase much more efficiently but on the other hand they would get strong enough to promote mixing and perhaps straight rain as the mean Jet flow is to our West. So not having one is a blessing in disguise, IMO

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Upper level energy is also lacking big time and this shows it quite nicely. Nice surface and mid lvl energy with an almost flat look to the H500 lvl.  We can never win one can we? Whenever something comes through that can be somewhat substantial there's always a few variables missing to make it a memorable one unfortunately!  I do however think all the ingredients come together for a complete all out blockbuster before this season is over and perhaps it happens in the volatile month of March cause it's gonna be a memorable one, IMO!

500h_mslp.conus.png

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39 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

KWRT is getting absolutely crushed right now with at least 3-4"/hr rates at times.  Pulaski is also getting hit quite hard from a separate band and this is why the Tug will be the big winner this week because of the consistent LE they'll see.

Not moving much either, so jelly. 

WUNIDS_map?station=TYX&brand=wui&num=10&

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12Z NAM comes in much more jucier for areas to the East of lets say Sodus Pt with areas to the West of there getting .50 QPF which is still a respectable 6-8" but areas to the east it .80" and above with the TUG obviously being the top winners. !2z also removed that horrific area of downsloping for the Finger lakes so that's good news as well.

My guess is, KBUF holds off on warnings West of Wayne perhaps including Wayne and Warnings East of there but that's just the NAM but we're within 24, so it should bear some weight.

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12 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

12Z NAM comes in much more jucier for areas to the East of lets say Sodus Pt with areas to the West of there getting .50 QPF which is still a respectable 6-8" but areas to the east it .80" and above with the TUG obviously being the top winners. !2z also removed that horrific area of downsloping for the Finger lakes so that's good news as well.

My guess is, KBUF holds off on warnings West of Wayne perhaps including Wayne and Warnings East of there but that's just the NAM but we're within 24, so it should bear some weight.

I’d guess Monroe to Cattaraugus county east is Warnings, West is advisories, just as the watches are right now. Warnings for 6-10” for most but 8-16” for Oswego,Jefferson, Lewis (highest amounts on the Tug) and advisories of 4-7” for Niagara, Orleans, Genesee, Erie and Chautauqua counties...

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2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

I’d guess Monroe to Cattaraugus county east is Warnings, West is advisories, just as the watches are right now. Warnings for 6-10” for most but 8-16” for Oswego,Jefferson, Lewis (highest amounts on the Tug) and advisories of 4-7” for Niagara, Orleans, Genesee, Erie and Chautauqua counties...

Should be quick hitting so I think WSW for all would be advised after latest runs a tad NW.

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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