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February 2018 Discussion


Frog Town

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How about an actual wet month?  I mean, it is La Nina.  :P

I saw a stat from Skilling that over 60% of La Nina winters are wetter than average in Chicago, so that does leave a non-trivial 30-something percent that are drier.  Doing some math, Chicago is going to need about 3.5" of precip in February to wipe out the Dec/Jan deficit, which may be a tough task. 

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I myself like many others am hoping for a pattern change, this suppressed garbage is getting old, I have nickel and dimed my way to 9”, with the largest snowfall being 3.5”.

Its been very dry as well, I wonder what if any implications the developing drought to our S/SW will have during the latter part of winter and early spring. 

My last winter storm warning is closing in on 2 years I believe it was 2/20/16 when they actually issued a blizzard watch for 3” of wind driven slop, major bust. Haven’t seen an exciting storm in almost 3 years, We missed out on the November 2015 storm for the most part. 

Thay being said the February 3rd/4th timeframe is certainly looking interesting. Gonna have to have a blockbuster February to make up the 2’ snowfall deficit in my area. 

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man the GFS has been very consistent in showing a major pattern shift to warmth for pretty much the entire country by mid month. Looks even warmer than Feb 2017 if that’s possible... so much for a cold Feb if this pans out. 

ensembles are starting to back off on the cold a bit too. 

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On 2/1/2018 at 4:27 PM, cmillzz said:

man the GFS has been very consistent in showing a major pattern shift to warmth for pretty much the entire country by mid month. Looks even warmer than Feb 2017 if that’s possible... so much for a cold Feb if this pans out. 

ensembles are starting to back off on the cold a bit too. 

Canceled.

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1 hour ago, Jonger said:

The GFS has backed off on the late run warm-up.

Sorry, those palms are gonna feel the pain. This will be a well below normal month.

The only thing that will be above average is my sled mileage. 8 to 10 days of riding this month.

LOL nope. Enjoy your 60s at the end of the month.

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Yep this is my thought, after Feb 23rd. By then the MJO will be in a phase favorable for warmth.
Been reading rumblings of an SPV split, but lots of uncertainty over what sort of influence that would have on the pattern and the timing of such influence.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

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31 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Been reading rumblings of an SPV split, but lots of uncertainty over what sort of influence that would have on the pattern and the timing of such influence.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Yeah I have seen that too, lets hope it splits half into Europe and half into Siberia because I will hard pass on a frigid March.

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