jbenedet Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is just a disaster this winter No kidding. Euro was awful with this pretty much from day 5 on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 South Wey where Scoots lives getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie from yesterday will prob end up the most accurate for snowfall. It had like 4-7 down in SE MA. Models were awful in this...qpf was a disaster. The midlevels were definitely hinted at but most guidance never bit on the qpf. Ukie did well...was consistently pretty bullish. And some of the nowcast models like HRRR and RAP were definitely decent. Though even those were still underdone. Embarrassing performance from the Euro this event. You could argue it was more than hinted too... I mentioned this a day or two ago ...now buried beneath pages no doubt, that there is a standard sort of index rule for 1.5 degrees lat/lon on the left hand side of wind maxes at 500 mb levels, and looking at around, that seems to superimpose the best right now. If the frontogenic sig/banding can be keyed into that in reanalysis than we can say that the model bust right there on that specific mechanical evolution for this deal. Heh, I was even frustrated at the time that much wind power and acceleration was being blithely pained with zero QPF and RH that looks almost broken in that typical axis where UVM tends more often to materialize. Maybe the models had the motion but lacked the ocean ...so to speak. No moisture ... transparent snow storm haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 Yeah the ukie yesterday wasn’t bad. The euro was pure garbage with this storm and I don’t want to hear otherwise. It sucked, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: South Wey where Scoots lives getting crushed Gunna pull 6”+ of “meh” there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1.5 inches in Easton CT! Did not expect that at all. 22 inches for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gunna pull 6”+ of “meh” there Nah I am just a bit NW. SE of me to where you are is good for WSW 7-9. Might get 4-5 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You could argue it was more than hinted too... I mentioned this a day or two ago ...now buried beneath pages no doubt, that there is a standard sort of index rule for 1.5 degrees lat/lon on the left hand side of wind maxes at 500 mb levels, and looking at around, that seems to superimpose the best right now. If the frontogenic sig/banding can be keyed into that in reanalysis than we can say that the model bust right there on that specific mechanical evolution for this deal. Heh, I was even frustrated at the time that much wind power and acceleration was being blithely pained with zero QPF and RH that looks almost broken in that typical axis where UVM tends more often to materialize. Maybe the models had the motion but lacked the ocean ...so to speak. No moisture ... transparent snow storm haha Yea great call Tip, you were on top of this for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Nah I am just a bit NW. SE of me to where you are is good for WSW 7-9. Might get 4-5 here. All kidding aside... glad this turned out well for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 7 hours ago, CT Rain said: This has been some sh*t modeling for this storm. Really awful all the way around. 1.5 inches for Easton CT. Nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Nothing reached the ground here but ripping stratus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And throw the NAM into the wall of shame too. Abysmal nowcast performance. I was amazed that the NAM was putting up 0's at Logan for QPF for like three runs in row ... Isn't it S borderline S+ there right now ? Heh, enjoy the positive bust.... where it is snowing. I left the house up along Rt 2 at 6:40 this morning and there was but small plates and grains barely detectable in the early blue tinted air... Painfully slowly as I came south the snow picked up.. By the time I was passing through Shrewsbury the roads were gray/brown with tire tracks, and I even fish tailed a little bit turning right once along the way. 1/2 mi vis at the parking lot but only 1.5" or so ... But even this level of inclemency is a pretty stark positive(negative) bust for this thing. interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 8" west greenwich RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Nothing reached the ground here but ripping stratus. Yea its feast or famine. Sharp cut-off on the west/north side of the intense banding. I didn't even see a flake down here near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 The fronto/deformation stuff was pretty much unchanged. I think we spoke about that ad nauseum. What is always interesting, is why the QPF (even when it's high ratio) does not reflect it...barely a hint at it. We spoke about dry air, but that was easily overcome.To me, this is basically H7-H6 frontogenesis (this is the zone of good DGZ) that fired off the snow. Especially ern CT, RI, and adjacent MA. Anyways, good to see that you can use synoptics to really help augment the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, MBRI said: 8" west greenwich RI All without even an advisory to start... nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You could argue it was more than hinted too... I mentioned this a day or two ago ...now buried beneath pages no doubt, that there is a standard sort of index rule for 1.5 degrees lat/lon on the left hand side of wind maxes at 500 mb levels, and looking at around, that seems to superimpose the best right now. If the frontogenic sig/banding can be keyed into that in reanalysis than we can say that the model bust right there on that specific mechanical evolution for this deal. Heh, I was even frustrated at the time that much wind power and acceleration was being blithely pained with zero QPF and RH that looks almost broken in that typical axis where UVM tends more often to materialize. Maybe the models had the motion but lacked the ocean ...so to speak. No moisture ... transparent snow storm haha I mentioned earlier to Scott how far west the H5 trough was...it was what kept sucking us into this threat...it wasn't like this was a positively tilted piece of garbage that had no midlevel component to it. There were some synoptics that argued to keep watching...we obviously kept mentioning the banding. But at some point we all succumb to the reliability of our short term model guidance and figured they had it right when it was time to downplay the threat. I think the models had trouble with convection to the east...probably was screwing around with the mid-level circulation on guidance a lot more than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Damn! That band was/is intense. Just got to the office. The most efficent little buggers accumulating. Was 3-4" 90min ago when I left the house. Gotta be pushing 6" now. Roads are atrocious. About as bad as you'll ever see for a minor event. Most untouched. School was not cancelled or delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 About 6" in the snowhole. I love these coastal scrapers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Megan said that driving to Walpole was a disaster...the plows weren't even out yet at 645...and a lot of the main roads had like 3-4" of snow in them. Totally unprepared everyone was. Most of those schools now wished they would have canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2.8" and SN on Mission Hill. Nice surprise! Anyone have a guess on how Wachusett did? Thinking of heading out for some night skiing later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I mentioned earlier to Scott how far west the H5 trough was...it was what kept sucking us into this threat...it wasn't like this was a positively tilted piece of garbage that had no midlevel component to it. There were some synoptics that argued to keep watching...we obviously kept mentioning the banding. But at some point we all succumb to the reliability of our short term model guidance and figured they had it right when it was time to downplay the threat. I think the models had trouble with convection to the east...probably was screwing around with the mid-level circulation on guidance a lot more than reality. This. Yea, I also think there's a tendency to give models more credibility when the particular setup --as in this case--isn't complex (relative to a Miller B or triple phaser for example).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, SR Airglow said: 2.8" and SN on Mission Hill. Nice surprise! Anyone have a guess on how Wachusett did? Thinking of heading out for some night skiing later. WaWa prob only got a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 6" on the button and still snowing lightly here. Sweet return to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I mentioned earlier to Scott how far west the H5 trough was...it was what kept sucking us into this threat...it wasn't like this was a positively tilted piece of garbage that had no midlevel component to it. There were some synoptics that argued to keep watching...we obviously kept mentioning the banding. But at some point we all succumb to the reliability of our short term model guidance and figured they had it right when it was time to downplay the threat. I think the models had trouble with convection to the east...probably was screwing around with the mid-level circulation on guidance a lot more than reality. I also disagree that the models did horrible with this storm ... What they did was poor performance with its sensible impact .. .but getting people to disconnect the two facets and consider thing's objectively in separate tenses, I know, is a tough road to hoe. However, the Euro absolutely nailed the present cyclone position and pressure depth... What they missed is this was one small piece to the bigger picture that is presently affecting the region, but that unfortunate small piece has a giant sensible distinction so... the common user is overly focused on that one aspect: imby. But in objective/mathematical evaluation of events the "total" system handling was not as bad as people are painting. If the storm was parked 73 naut M of SSE of ISP tanking through 980 mb right now, then we can talk poor handling overall... Possibly ...bold. But, I was seeing DPVA in the guidance passing between 1 and 3 deg lat/lon ...consistently SE of PVD the whole way, and that has to create UVV on the west curl.. Not sure how convection NE of Bermuda stops that synoptic scale eddy effect - unless we say moisture theft/capture? yeah, I dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Megan said that driving to Walpole was a disaster...the plows weren't even out yet at 645...and a lot of the main roads had like 3-4" of snow in them. Totally unprepared everyone was. Most of those schools now wished they would have canceled. Was pretty bad down here when I left at 6am from Brooklyn out rte 6 towards Hartford. There seemed to be one pass by the plows early on, but when I went out it was the heavy stuff and there was not a plow in sight, and the roads were covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I also disagree that the models did horrible with this storm ... What they did was poor performance with its sensible impact .. .but getting people to disconnect the two facets and consider thing objectively in separate tenses, I know, is a tough road to hoe. However, the Euro absolutely nailed the present cyclone position and pressure depth... What they missed is this one small piece to the bigger picture that is presently affecting the region, but that unfortunate small piece has a giant sensible distinction so... the common user is overly focused on that one aspect: imby. But in objective/mathematical evaluation of events the "total" system handling was not as bad as people are painting. Possibly ...bold. But, I was seeing DPVA in the guidance passing between 1 and 3 deg lat/lon ...consistently SE of PVD the whole way, and that has to create UVV on the west curl.. Not sure how convection NE of Bermuda stops that synoptic scale eddy effect - unless we say moisture theft/capture? yeah, I dunno Yeah it was more the QPF the models were horrendous with...they did get most of the key features correct which is why we kept saying "hold on, don't be a QPF queen just yet...there's midlevel banding sig showing up".....but then as you said, they stubbornly refused to eventually spit out the goods from a QPF standpoint. Then we started doubting ourselves....maybe the dry air was too much? Maybe the convection robbing moisture was real? Maybe, maybe, maybe....until we mostly caved and said "ok, maybe this really is only a 1-3 inch event for E/ESE MA and RI/SE CT"....when in reality, we had it right the first time, but we have so much confidence in NWP guidance to get the QPF right once we get inside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Plymouth thankfully closed schools. About 3 inches here... hopefully that 1-2" per hour band collapses southeast a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: WaWa prob only got a coating. Damn - was hoping they got into some banding overnight. Thanks though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, rnaude241 said: Plymouth thankfully closed schools. About 3 inches here... hopefully that 1-2" per hour band collapses southeast a bit. It should...you also may get a little ocean enhancement too as it does. RAP has you hanging onto snow until about 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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