Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 not to poke the proverbial hornets nest but .. the 06z NAM does something new in this saga, and that's balloons a QPF region over Long Island or thereabouts ...appearing to be associated with the UI forcing... That region could be reason to now-cast ...Frankly, it's never really set well with me that a fairly important wind-max and associated DPVA slices up the critical 1 to 1.5 deg lat/lon E of PVD aloft and the models pull off nothing happening at all back west where/in the local studies axis should materialize.. There should be a zone of some sort of frontogen/UVV associated with the left entrance/exit region of that wind max like is normally found by physical forcing in the atmosphere for crying out loud but the models are so beady eyed obsessed with taking everything and sweeping it out to sea before the forcing has a chance to do it's work that we've actually seen some solutions with partly cloudy skies while said jet streak runs by. okay ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 James ... you're like a child with this stuff. Your "analytic gate" is insufficient to handle the tide of your imagination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: James ... you're like a child with this stuff. Your "analytic gate" is insufficient to handle the tide of your imagination lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 09z SREF Plumes are a general 4-7" East of the i-95 corridor down this way, BDL is just under 2" ORH 3" BOS just about 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Looks like we are seeing some ocean enhanced totals in the PYM County area with the onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 09z SREF Plumes are a general 4-7" East of the i-95 corridor down this way, BDL is just under 2" ORH 3" BOS just about 5" Spring cleanup cancel for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Spring cleanup cancel for you. Yeah. I did contemplate leaf blowing on Saturday but the winds were absurd and would have proven fruitless. So we snow. This storm should take me over 30", well on my way to seasonal average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 15 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said: box afd: Also new 06z NAM trended farther west and heavier with qpf shield for tonight. 06z GFS not as much. Will have to see how 12z models trend. Wildcard here is increasing amount of deep moist convection near developing low off the north FL coast at 7 am. This may result in more downstream ridging and a storm track closer to the coast. Stay tuned. Dont buy the closer storm track talk. Tht feature is pretty meaningless at this stage. If the precip is firther west it’s the result of mid level forcing. west zones could possibly see expanded snows from the norlun holding on a bit more too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Dont buy the closer storm track talk. Tht feature is pretty meaningless at this stage. If the precip is firther west it’s the result of mid level forcing. west zones could possibly see expanded snows from the norlun holding on a bit more too. Yeah, teeny-tiny critter that may nibble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Looks like 12z will tick east again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 See ya on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Ugh...This is another warm core?! No wonder the models are waffling all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Next. I'm done with this POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: See ya on the NAM. Cant retire that model fast enough....Holy Bi-Polar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Next. I'm done with this POS. Ah haha you know ... some small little fraction of deviancy in my mind would find it deliciously entertaining if this antic happened for the rest of the winter's "plausibilities" Fwiw ... the NAM initializes the low along the SE coast both too deep and, too far E... Not sure what significance that has, but ... in the spirit of now-cast, it is so - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I cant get back the time spent tracking this garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Next. I'm done with this POS. Likewise. This thing is ots. Wish I had known earlier it was warm core. This thing gonna suck. Forecasts will bust way high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Next. I'm done with this POS. Congrats on the widespread 1-2"+ in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Likewise. This thing is ots. Wish I had known earlier it was warm core. This thing gonna suck. Forecasts will bust way high. They'll probably be a band somewhere, but it's a nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I guess its time to move on to the late week system. Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Likewise. This thing is ots. Wish I had known earlier it was warm core. This thing gonna suck. Forecasts will bust way high. That always confuses me?? If you get less snow than forecast...don't you bust low, cuz you got lower snow than forecast???? No??? I guess you can look at it both ways. But ya, I think most people are going to be surprised how little they get from this..if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: They'll probably be a band somewhere, but it's a nowcast. Certainly will be interesting to see other guidance. NAM 06z head fake caught some and the 12z gave the cheap shot sucker punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 9 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: NAM supports blizzard conditions across the Cape. 40 knot winds sustained with heavy snowfall. need to watch the combination of snow and wind for some whiteout possibilities. NWS Taunton mentions 1in/hour snow fall rates for the cape and Islands Now NAM supports flurries for you. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 HRRRx versus NAM, lol at Scooter melt on a NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Now NAM supports flurries for you. Good luck. Mute button is a blessing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 This is going to be worse than the piece of crap 12 days ago on the 17th lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: HRRRx versus NAM, lol at Scooter melt on a NAM run We're gonna give the NAM a resounding send-off party when it retires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: HRRRx versus NAM, lol at Scooter melt on a NAM run Scooter has been unusually emotional on this threat for his standards...must be the nasty pneumonia he caught. Gotta laugh though at the NAM....went from half inch of qpf just south of BOS on 06z to almost nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Melts are happening faster than Scooters edible undies on prom night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Hi-RES NAMMY siggy cutback too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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