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Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.


John1122

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Surface temps are outrunning MOS and 2m guidance, so a warm bias pattern recognition forecast is in order. 

Nashville to Morristown can pray for a dusting, but don't hold your breath. Upper Plateau to TRI should get the obligatory inch. I go a couple inches in the Smokies. Valleys south of I-40 blank. Knoxville might even blank.

I am not even going to look out the window in Chattanooga. Wichita State has an important conference game on ESPN2 tonight.

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Short term models held steady here.  Looks like rain should change to snow from northwest to southeast through this evening.  Should be snowing in Clarksville around 5-6 pm cst, Nashville by 6-7pm cst, The Plateau around the same time as Nashville. Knox to Tri should be snow by 9-10 est.

The models struggle with the exact placement of the heaviest areas so that's why you see some areas with 3-5 inches with less in others. I take that as a general representation of what could happen. But I also recommend cutting totals across the board by 30 percent vs snowfall maps.

That said, I'd guess 1/2-1 inch for Middle Tennessee areas 40 and north.  1-2 inches generally across the Plateau and border counties in the Eastern areas. 3+ in the higher parts of the Plateau  SWVA SEKY above 2500-3000 feet. .5-1.5 from say Loudon to Morristown to  Maryville and points north in the central valley of East Tennessee. If you are much further south than where I mentioned, probably flakes in the air or a dusting is the best you can hope for if you aren't at elevation.

 

The positives. It's mid winter. It's night time. There's anafrontal moisture. The temps are going to crash into the 20s.  The ground is cold from the frigid month we've had so far in winter. The snow the other night stuck immediately here after it had been near 50 with light rain earlier in the afternoon. 

 

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45 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Surface temps are outrunning MOS and 2m guidance, so a warm bias pattern recognition forecast is in order. 

Nashville to Morristown can pray for a dusting, but don't hold your breath. Upper Plateau to TRI should get the obligatory inch. I go a couple inches in the Smokies. Valleys south of I-40 blank. Knoxville might even blank.

I am not even going to look out the window in Chattanooga. Wichita State has an important conference game on ESPN2 tonight.

 

pouting-little-girl.jpg

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17 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

 

pouting-little-girl.jpg

When I was a kid snow had a magical effect on me.  I don't know why.  I think it was the way it totally changed the landscape and brought down that sound suppressing aura.  I would wake up in the morning and even though we had a well insulated house I could tell while laying in bed that we had had a snowfall.  I would jump up and rush to the window and if I was real lucky it was still falling.  After I bundled up I would run outside and just enjoy the new transformed world.  I could stay out all day and could not understand why other children we so hesitant to come out to play in the new wonderland, to me it was heaven.  As I have gotten older and track storms a lot of that magic has been lost, especially this year where it seems no matter what nothing seems to want to come together.  I think it is time to stop looking at all the models and just enjoy the weather.

 

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1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Surface temps are outrunning MOS and 2m guidance, so a warm bias pattern recognition forecast is in order. 

Nashville to Morristown can pray for a dusting, but don't hold your breath. Upper Plateau to TRI should get the obligatory inch. I go a couple inches in the Smokies. Valleys south of I-40 blank. Knoxville might even blank.

I am not even going to look out the window in Chattanooga. Wichita State has an important conference game on ESPN2 tonight.

I share Jeff's concerns with temps.  We raced past the expected high and will have to overcome mid and upper 50's here in the Tri-Cities.  That might be what puts the brakes on the potential later this evening and overnight.

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13 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I share Jeff's concerns with temps.  We raced past the expected high and will have to overcome mid and upper 50's here in the Tri-Cities.  That might be what puts the brakes on the potential later this evening and overnight.

Two days ago it was 50 with light rain and a few hours later it was heavy snow in my area that immediately accumulated. The ground is very very cold and the temps are going to go well below freezing. I am a little surprised you've gotten that high. I've peaked out at 45 for now.

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9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Two days ago it was 50 with light rain and a few hours later it was heavy snow in my area that immediately accumulated. The ground is very very cold and the temps are going to go well below freezing. I am a little surprised you've gotten that high. I've peaked out at 45 for now.

There must be some down sloping element occurring too notice temps near the mountains are 5 to even 10 degrees warmer than valley locations near the the plateau, with the exception of Chatt being next to the plateau and around 60.  My house is at 49 so is Spring City, 30 miles east in Maryville is 57.

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Pulling a Feb. 2015 in a sense comparing differences between Ktri and Lee county, as that happened several times that month. Only made it to 42 here earlier today. Now 41 with lt. Rain.


Yep I was going to say that temps aren’t outrunning MOS temps in SWVA locations. It is currently 39 in Gate City. 37 in Duffield. High was supposed to be 51.

Compare that to 54 in Johnson City currently.

Temps may rise in these locations as the front gets closer and pulls in more southerly air but they are well below where they were supposed to be currently.
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7 minutes ago, John1122 said:

MRX is all in, 1-3 plateau and NETn and SWVA 1-2 in the central valley of the Eastern forum areas. 

You could tell with the morning AFD if the SREF didn't change they were going to extend into the central valley to the Blount/Loudon area. So far it appears to be following their thoughts with the jet forcing and lift. The column crashes very rapidly behind the front.

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16 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I think the HRRR looks like it is under modeling reflections currently as of most recent run.  It looks a little juicer to me at current than reflected on HRRR. 

I never really use the HRRR it almost constantly is wrong and seems to have trouble even initializing correctly. 

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