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WeatherFeen2000

February 2018 Model thread

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Almost a big snowstorm for our area next weekend on the GFS

So close

The Euro has a cutter which fits the pattern.

Then the ridge reloads to begin March.

Better hope the Euro is wrong or you're going to have to give up that ghost you call Winter.

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9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Euro has a cutter which fits the pattern.

Then the ridge reloads to begin March.

Better hope the Euro is wrong or you're going to have to give up that ghost you call Winter.

It's not going to cut under that ridge. This is going to course correct as we get closer, it always does in strong blocking patterns.

That being said, I'm just not sure how much cold there will be available. Most of the cold is in Europe.

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55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's not going to cut under that ridge. This is going to course correct as we get closer, it always does in strong blocking patterns.

That being said, I'm just not sure how much cold there will be available. Most of the cold is in Europe.

I agree with that. That’s always been my worry. We get this record blocking and mega storms and we wind up with March 11. Inches and inches of cold rain. I would want serious elevation 

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The Euro has a cutter which fits the pattern.

Then the ridge reloads to begin March.

Better hope the Euro is wrong or you're going to have to give up that ghost you call Winter.

Something needs to happen (winter wise) by 3/10. You can already see a big torch pattern loading by then with the retrograde and -NAO breakdown on all guidance for mid March and beyond

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Well the day 9-10 Euro tries to pull off a Snowicane redux track wise, but temperatures are actually in the lower 40's on the coastal plain during the storm.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's not going to cut under that ridge. This is going to course correct as we get closer, it always does in strong blocking patterns.

That being said, I'm just not sure how much cold there will be available. Most of the cold is in Europe.

Plenty of cold with the AO falling

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Well the day 9-10 Euro tries to pull off a Snowicane redux track wise, but temperatures are actually in the lower 40's on the coastal plain during the storm.

Good signal this far out

Ensembles are all over

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Plenty of cold with the AO falling

I've heard a lot of March 1962 signals bring thrown out there, which wasn't good for snow but very stormy nonetheless.

That's the direction I'm leaning during the upcoming stretch. Euro op shows this nicely too. 

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28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I've heard a lot of March 1962 signals bring thrown out there, which wasn't good for snow but very stormy nonetheless.

That's the direction I'm leaning during the upcoming stretch. Euro op shows this nicely too. 

Yeah well who needs buckets of cold rain. I'm reading in other places that the cold will be mostly in Europe though. The Mid Atlantic forums mention this, I also read it on some nonweather sites that had some knowledgeable people talking about it. I'm still trying to wrap my head around yesterday, which was beyond warmth and into "hot" territory for me. I had the AC on yesterday in my office, which is a used to be a classroom.

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I really like our chances for at least one more threat for a big storm from March 1-10. Active pattern depicted could have one of these storms slide under. After the second week, we might be in spring mode, but I'm ok with that if we get a big one.

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I've heard a lot of March 1962 signals bring thrown out there, which wasn't good for snow but very stormy nonetheless.

That's the direction I'm leaning during the upcoming stretch. Euro op shows this nicely too. 

 

Patience 

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5 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The Euro has a cutter which fits the pattern.

Then the ridge reloads to begin March.

Better hope the Euro is wrong or you're going to have to give up that ghost you call Winter.

LMFAO

Euro shows a cutter ?

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3 hours ago, ag3 said:

This is another NYC/LI favored storm, IMO.

Euro temps and exact solution are meaningless this far out.

 

 

 

The spread is wider than that in my mind and it's center axis is a long way from certainty 

 

But the pattern fits the mold of some other very large mid latitude March cyclones 

If people even look at p type this far out its better leave them out of any forecasting debate , because they are relying on LR operational modeling and not sensible pattern recognition 

 

And they will miss what should happen before the pattern breaks down by mid month 

 

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Positively tilted troughs do not  cut into -5 SD blocks 

The center climbs towards the OHV then gets forced underneath and deepens off the EC.

 

When you see that modeled saying that it fits the pattern is mind boggling IMO.

When you see an operational model do that you should immediately dismiss it because it's an easy error to identify.

Some look at runs in here as a lock / valid solution while many forecaster put the  pattern first and sees feedback or false cutters. They forecast  as to why the run may be incorrect.

A pattern with the anomalies such as this produce large mid latitude cyclones.

Whether the center point is D.C. NYC or BOX Is not known yet.

But expect some big solutions to appear before this pattern breaks.

I would not be concerned about P type etc 

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18 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

The spread is wider than that in my mind and it's center axis is a long way from certainty 

 

But the pattern fits the mold of some other very large mid latitude March cyclones 

If people even look at p type this far out its better leave them out of any forecasting debate , because they are relying on LR operational modeling and not sensible pattern recognition 

 

And they will miss what should happen before the pattern breaks down by mid month 

 

I hope we get an I-95 mauler where the mid atlantic to New England gets crushed. That way everyone cashes in.:snowing:

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1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

The spread is wider than that in my mind and it's center axis is a long way from certainty 

 

But the pattern fits the mold of some other very large mid latitude March cyclones 

If people even look at p type this far out its better leave them out of any forecasting debate , because they are relying on LR operational modeling and not sensible pattern recognition 

 

And they will miss what should happen before the pattern breaks down by mid month 

 

We agree! The early March pattern actually supports major suppression, not a cutter and it would not surprise me if us and New England get minimal snow out of it. And yea, the writing is definitely on the wall with all guidance, the pattern breaks down mid-March and it most likely torches

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IMO, it's too soon to be sure whether any large storm would have an impact more along the lines of the March 18-19, 1958 or March 5-7, 1962 systems. The evolution of the 5-day mean 500 mb anomalies on the EPS over the medium-term could imply an outcome along the lines of either scenario. The exact details will be all important.

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58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We agree! The early March pattern actually supports major suppression, not a cutter and it would not surprise me if us and New England get minimal snow out of it. And yea, the writing is definitely on the wall with all guidance, the pattern breaks down mid-March and it most likely torches

 

I don't really buy suppression because there's no big vortex under that block.

I believe a large storm will get caught behind the large 50/50 low.

The flow will buckle on the EC and I am of the belief you will see a large cyclone between the 5th and 15th.

 

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17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, it's too soon to be sure whether any large storm would have an impact more along the lines of the March 18-19, 1958 or March 5-7, 1962 systems. The evolution of the 5-day mean 500 mb anomalies on the EPS over the medium-term could imply an outcome along the lines of either scenario. The exact details will be all important.

 

Don , this was done by Brooklynwx99 it's the loading phase at 500mb 4 days prior to every 15 inch snow event at KNYC.

You can match this up against the GEFS or EPS by day 8 to 12 and see why we are looking for something big 

DWgYV8cWAAUmn7S.jpg

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1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Don , this was done by Brooklynwx99 it's the loading phase at 500mb 4 days prior to every 15 inch snow event at KNYC.

You can match this up against the GEFS or EPS by day 8 to 12 and see why we are looking for something big 

DWgYV8cWAAUmn7S.jpg

Yes, I saw it. It highlights the potential that is involved. I believe that there will likely be a large-scale storm, but am unsure whether it will be a "near miss" along the lines of the 1962 storm or one with significant impact on the region such as occurred March 18-19, 1958. CPC's data for the teleconnections should again be available tomorrow now that a major computer issue was resolved.

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Okay the retrograding storm around March 3-4th is interesting if it comes to fruition. Even the GGEM posted above has temperature issues though.

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