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February 2018 Model thread


WeatherFeen2000

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Gefs mean 18z

 

2h3wtbn.jpg&key=1e41be90eaf31441f5564168e71fc981eb8cd030213889141d5ef6cf057b9c5a

Thanks for the map. How is that compared to 12z gefs (I know I know. I can already hear forky “when will people stop looking at snow maps”. )

 

Just for good measure

 

IMG_3660.JPG

IMG_3661.JPG

 

...more progressive. Less digging. Lower heights out ahead. War further east. Trough further east. ...not by much but it is an ensemble 🤷‍♂️

 

 

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23 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Gfs and icon are definitely a tick colder also. I don't have access to the cmc. This is obviously trending colder and it'll probably turn into a decent snow event for even NYC

Wishcasting at its finest

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For me this seems to be whether it's about a cold rain around NYC with maybe 1-2" to start that gets washed away vs. all milder rain. The NAM and maybe Euro/CMC seem to support the former vs. GFS which is more the latter. The UK may jump out for the better but I'd need to see others jump on a cold solution for multiple runs, especially given the usual trend for a stronger SE ridge close in. 

This is likely a typical Nina cutter-ish system that delivers for areas Ninas are supposed to deliver for. Without the MJO decisively moving into Phase 8, and no NAO help to speak of, I'm very skeptical in these parts. Luckily we had a good start to winter here (which Ninas are also known for).

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

For me this seems to be whether it's about a cold rain around NYC with maybe 1-2" to start that gets washed away vs. all milder rain. The NAM and maybe Euro/CMC seem to support the former vs. GFS which is more the latter. The UK may jump out for the better but I'd need to see others jump on a cold solution for multiple runs, especially given the usual trend for a stronger SE ridge close in. 

This is likely a typical Nina cutter-ish system that delivers for areas Ninas are supposed to deliver for. Without the MJO decisively moving into Phase 8, and no NAO help to speak of, I'm very skeptical in these parts. Luckily we had a good start to winter here (which Ninas are also known for).

I would be surprised at this point if it’s all rain unless it just arrives too late.  If we were to see no precip til 18-19Z then it’s probably all rain

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I would be surprised at this point if it’s all rain unless it just arrives too late.  If we were to see no precip til 18-19Z then it’s probably all rain

Hopefully at least the drought talk around here will stop. :axe:

The drought pattern emerging is actually pretty typical Nina with it focusing south so much and CA receiving little besides the one fluke storm. I'd always take a Nino winter in NYC over a Nina winter to assume better than normal snow. 

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22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully at least the drought talk around here will stop. :axe:

The drought pattern emerging is actually pretty typical Nina with it focusing south so much and CA receiving little besides the one fluke storm. I'd always take a Nino winter in NYC over a Nina winter to assume better than normal snow. 

JM I think we're in for a very hot / dry summer, we'll see I guess.  How do you feel about the rest of the winter? I see  a lot of our local forecasters are talking about an early shift to a springtime pattern with mostly rain for the coast going forward and even more rain for more inland locations with an early seasonal shift of the storm track to the west.  I think this might mean we go straight to an early summer kind of pattern in April and going forward beyond that.

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2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

JM I think we're in for a very hot / dry summer, we'll see I guess.  How do you feel about the rest of the winter? I see  a lot of our local forecasters are talking about an early shift to a springtime pattern with mostly rain for the coast going forward and even more rain for more inland locations with an early seasonal shift of the storm track to the west.  I think this might mean we go straight to an early summer kind of pattern in April and going forward beyond that.

I can't complain since I'm already at normal here, maybe the cutters/SWFEs the rest of this month can add a few inches to get it above normal. Nina climatology in these parts is very clear-favorable early winter, horrible later winter, maybe some scraps in March. The upper Midwest/New England have the best outcomes overall in Nina seasons, we're kinda in the middle, the South is worst and dry. That's already been thrown off due to the winter storms in NC/VA/SC so far, so this is an atypical Nina in some ways. But since our better snows have been so far from a stronger SE ridge response this year, no help coming from the NAO like 2010-11, the MJO progs hitting a wall at phase 7, and typical Nina progression, I'm not optimistic for our area. I'd predict some lucky table scraps here and there and cheer at anything better for the rest of the winter unless one of the above changes. There's a good chance still we make it to 30" which is way past where we can complain. We made the best out of the usually good part of Nina winters around here. Many well inland places are starving and hopefully they can cash in over the next month. We started seeing that today and will likely continue that on Wed. 

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I can't complain since I'm already at normal here, maybe the cutters/SWFEs the rest of this month can add a few inches to get it above normal. Nina climatology in these parts is very clear-favorable early winter, horrible later winter, maybe some scraps in March. The upper Midwest/New England have the best outcomes overall in Nina seasons, we're kinda in the middle, the South is worst and dry. That's already been thrown off due to the winter storms in NC/VA/SC so far, so this is an atypical Nina in some ways. But since our better snows have been so far from a stronger SE ridge response this year, no help coming from the NAO like 2010-11, the MJO progs hitting a wall at phase 7, and typical Nina progression, I'm not optimistic for our area. I'd predict some lucky table scraps here and there and cheer at anything better for the rest of the winter unless one of the above changes. There's a good chance still we make it to 30" which is way past where we can complain. We made the best out of the usually good part of Nina winters around here. Many well inland places are starving and hopefully they can cash in over the next month. We started seeing that today and will likely continue that on Wed. 

I'm not very optimistic either, which is why I didn't really like the piddly 1-3" snowfalls we were getting in December.  Our climo is such that we are a home run hitting kind of snow city, we NEED big snowstorms to have a good winter, 1-3 events and even 2-4 events wont cut it.  We need to maximize our chances and get at least 6+ with each event to have a very good winter.  Anything less just doesn't cut it.  We're a home run hitting city, not a city where dinks and dunks are gonna get it done.

I hope people remember this in future winters and dont root on small events.  Go Big or Go Home.

 

Even that early Jan event could have been better for the city and points west, but at least we were in the 12+ area. and got to witness a true bonafide blizzard this winter.

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And for the record I don't remember any winter where we had this kind of rain coast/ snow well inland kind of pattern in early February that transitioned to a snowy coast pattern later- usually it goes the other way and everyone gets just rain the later in the season you get.

 

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4 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I'm not very optimistic either, which is why I didn't really like the piddly 1-3" snowfalls we were getting in December.  Our climo is such that we are a home run hitting kind of snow city, we NEED big snowstorms to have a good winter, 1-3 events and even 2-4 events wont cut it.  We need to maximize our chances and get at least 6+ with each event to have a very good winter.  Anything less just doesn't cut it.  We're a home run hitting city, not a city where dinks and dunks are gonna get it done.

I hope people remember this in future winters and dont root on small events.  Go Big or Go Home.

 

Even that early Jan event could have been better for the city and points west, but at least we were in the 12+ area. and got to witness a true bonafide blizzard this winter.

The blizzard was amazing, and among the best I've witnessed here. But that was only possible due to a last second west trend, among many here over the last few years including last March which resulted in a disaster. Eventually we'll find a notable exception, but that gives me pause about anything here this month unless we finally see blocking exert itself over Greenland or the trough axis shift east. 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The blizzard was amazing, and among the best I've witnessed here. But that was only possible due to a last second west trend, among many here over the last few years including last March which resulted in a disaster. Eventually we'll find a notable exception, but that gives me pause about anything here this month unless we finally see blocking exert itself over Greenland or the trough axis shift east. 

Yes I think that part of the reason that we've seen much higher snowfall totals since 2002 or so is because storms that used to track offshore now hit us directly.  I think warmer SST have a lot to do with it, but it's a double edged sword because in this kind of pattern storms will have a higher tendency to cut.

One storm that we missed out on that we could have gotten hit with was a Millenium Day-type repeat.  If we had gotten 2 big storms in that pattern instead of just one (remember we were below 32 highs for like 2 weeks in a row- we should have gotten at least 2 big snowstorms out of that) then I think this would have been perceived as a much better winter.

The current storm was originally forecast to deliver a foot of storm to the Scranton Wilkes Barre area and they changed to rain after a few inches, so this storm trended even more west- most do.

 

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Anyone have the latest MJO wanderings for each of the models.  The GFS I see is lost in Phase 7 and needs a GPS unit to get out of the trap.  How about other outputs......does it make it to the cold Phase 8 on any of them?

Just found it.     The Canadian is like the GEFS.  The EURO and JMA do get it to Phase 8.

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4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

The gfs says after the 10th we don't drop below freezing through the end of its run

Euro is more optimistic in the LR, if the MJO traverses through phase 8-1 we should see colder temperatures. 

However that doesn't mean it'll snow. The door will be closing fast in a few weeks.

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27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro is more optimistic in the LR, if the MJO traverses through phase 8-1 we should see colder temperatures. 

However that doesn't mean it'll snow. The door will be closing fast in a few weeks.

Closing on what ?

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