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Mid Winter Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018


dryslot

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So CON hit 74F today...broke the daily record by 10F and the monthly record by 5F. That is also the warmest temperature ever recorded there for meteorological winter. The previous sub-74F window ran from 11/21 (76F 11/20/1991) through 3/8 (77F on 3/9/2016). We have done some monster late Feb-Mar warmth over the past decade.

Awesome. I still don’t think that does it enough justice considering the dews in the mid to upper 50’s. If we had dews in the 30’s —widespread low 80’s for highs?! Crazy. 

We got close to 90 in early April last year, but that was also with desert-like TD’s...

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Just now, jbenedet said:

Awesome. I still don’t think that does it enough justice considering the dews in the mid to upper 50’s. If sees we had dews in the 30’s —widespread low 80’s for highs?! Crazy. 

We got close to 90 early April last year, but that was also with desert-like TD’s...

Definitely impressive, but I almost feel like we needed the tropical airmass to pull off temps like this. The Jan cutter had dews well into the 50s too except that obviously came with heavy rains. That melted a lot more snow here than this warm shot did.

 

There were lots of 77-79F obs from various NHDOT/CWOP/HADS sites today, but I'm not sure which of those would be deemed "official" for monthly state record purposes. I'm guessing just the HADS sites? MHT hit 77F so at the least that one is in the books. What a crazy day.

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Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

It's almost unreadable. Why would lower arctic ice lead to NAO when the ice loss is happening mostly on the Pacific side? That correlation has been exact

Barents has had much higher ice loss...including the winter season. Pacific ice loss has mostly been seasonal. 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Barents has had much higher ice loss...including the winter season. Pacific ice loss has mostly been seasonal. 

Atmospheric currents man.. lower arctic ice would shift the Polar Vortex southeast

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-0.87,77.65,363/loc=-143.732,58.049

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18 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Atmospheric currents man.. lower arctic ice would shift the Polar Vortex southeast

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-0.87,77.65,363/loc=-143.732,58.049

It's going to take more than sea ice for hemispheric shifts in mid level anomalies as you propose.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I sort of cringed at the Harvey study. We know warmer air holds more water vapor,  but we also know a slow moving TC is a recipe for disaster flooding. As you said, the mesoscale nuances are endless. To me and I know this was talked about...I’d be more interested if there was a GW component to the stalling of Harvey.

Chris Landsea had a great rebuttal to the the Harvey stuff. 

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33 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Chris Landsea had a great rebuttal to the the Harvey stuff. 

He's been a thorn in the alarmist's side for a while on the tropical stuff. His 2010 paper dismantled Emmanuel's earlier stuff about an increase in Atlantic TCs. But that is kind of how peer review should work...rather than being forced to listen to deniers vs extreme alarmists which are both often arguing points outside of the mainstream literature or using those extreme points to build strawmen. 

I used to post more in the climate forum...back when I did, I remember having to explain stuff like TOBs adjustments on the temperature record to so many who were obsessed wth the idea that the sfc record was adjusted upward because of some non-science motive. Hard to reason with those people. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He's been a thorn in the alarmist's side for a while on the tropical stuff. His 2010 paper dismantled Emmanuel's earlier stuff about an increase in Atlantic TCs. But that is kind of how peer review should work...rather than being forced to listen to deniers vs extreme alarmists which are both often arguing points outside of the mainstream literature or using those extreme points to build strawmen. 

I used to post more in the climate forum...back when I did, I remember having to explain stuff like TOBs adjustments on the temperature record to so many who were obsessed wth the idea that the sfc record was adjusted upward because of some non-science motive. Hard to reason with those people. 

He does a nice job inserting meteorology into the climate science debate. It's refreshing and it's really how the process should work - it works well!

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Temp had been at 61 for a couple of hours when the wind suddenly gusted. Thinking the front was coming thru, I got up to close the windows. Checked a little while ago, and we're back up to 64. Guess that wasn't the front! High of 71 yesterday and today. At this point in the season any storm needs to be huge, or I'm ready for days like today!

Sent from my SM-T713 using Tapatalk

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