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January 29-30th Rain/Flurries coastal and IVT

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No one said the coastal impacted us. But it might be indirectly impacting us by changing the track of the feature behind it. 

Btrwx vort of interest has always been separate and trailing coastal. PSU is stating that the closer to the coast it gets,the more it robs trailing vort of energy. As the coastal has largely been a fish storm ....we want that. 

Basically we are just wanting to have our little vort all by itself . :)

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No one said the coastal impacted us. But it might be indirectly impacting us by changing the track of the feature behind it. 

Looks like the issue is the ns energy is tracking further north. Euro and nams are similar now. I don't think the coastal is having much impact. The track is mostly unchanged with coastal but the best dynamics with the ul energy are trending north. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like the issue is the ns energy is tracking further north. Euro and nams are similar now. I don't think the coastal is having much impact. The track is mostly unchanged with coastal but the best dynamics with the ul energy are trending north. 

Your probably right but I was wondering if it's not a coincidence that as the coastal trended more amplified that the ns energy started to trend north also. It could be a total coincidence but I can also think of some logical reasons the two are linked. Either way it doesn't matter the end result is no good for us. 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
Looks like the issue is the ns energy is tracking further north. Euro and nams are similar now. I don't think the coastal is having much impact. The track is mostly unchanged with coastal but the best dynamics with the ul energy are trending north. 
Well here we are again....

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Well here we are again....

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Oh don't start that again. Yes we might get left out. But our fail will be a win for someone else. It's trended snowier in some places to our north that haven't had much snow either. Yea the coast has but inland areas of pa are pretty far below avg also. So someone loses and someone wins. And as bob said eventually something will shift into us at someone else's expense. There is no cosmic conspiracy to steal your snow. It's just random chance not working out for us lately. 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Still a band of snow on tap. The best dynamics never got further south than the mason dixon. 

just keep thinking bonus snow lol...right? Pattern change not suppose to start till after 1s week of Feb when you did your Jan 16 PSA

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ji said:

just keep thinking bonus snow lol...right? Pattern change not suppose to start till after 1s week of Feb when you did your Jan 16 PSA

Every event is mutually exclusive to me. Snow is snow. Someone in our sub could easily get 2". When it first showed up 2 days ago we weren't in the game at all. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs and the ICON have between .1-.2qpf through the area. Acceptable. 

Big difference between .1 and .2. Right now I would take 2" and do cartwheels. Another 1" event (I've had like 5 of those now) ehh. But your right in that it's not over or dire. I don't like the trends though but nothing is a done deal. 

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cae

cae

Posted
Posted

RGEM ensemble cuts back again. 

I5AW9Ol.png

The high-res RGEM lost the contribution from the coastal, but still looks better than the RGEM / REPS.  Looking at the Kuchera ratios, it looks like most of us can expect ratios of less than 10:1.  We'll still see some shifts in the next 36 hours, but right now I'm hoping for an inch.

 

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arlwx

arlwx

Posted
Posted

The latest from LWX:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Another cold front along with a potent upper-level trough axis
will be fast on the heels of the departing shortwave tonight.
This is expected to pass through the Allegheny and Potomac
Highlands late this evening...then across the Shenandoah Valley
overnight and toward the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan
areas toward Tuesday morning.

Frontogenetical forcing along and just ahead of the cold front
along with the upper-level trough axis will be enough lift to
likely bring a period of snow with the frontal passage. The
best chance for a period of snow is expected overnight across
the Shenandoah Valley...first thing Tuesday morning for the
Washington Metropolitan area...and Tuesday morning for the
Baltimore Metropolitan area and for locations near the Bay. For
most areas...snowfall accumulations around a coating up to one
inch are possible. Did allow for 1-2" near the Mason Dixon line
and the far northern/western suburbs of Washington and Baltimore
where colder temps will cause higher SLR`s. Either way...aside
from the ridge tops most valley locations will be near or above
freezing ahead of this system. This combined with the recent
warm temps may cause difficulties for snow to stick on paved
surfaces. However...strong cold advection behind the boundary
will likely cause temps to dip below freezing during the morning
rush for the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas.
Therefore...any wet or slushy roads do have the chance to freeze
during the morning rush. Also...snowfall rates may be moderate
to locally heavy for a brief period and if so that can stick on
paved surfaces despite the recent warm conditions.

Did issue a Winter Weather Advisory for locations along/west of
the Allegheny Front where confidence in higher snowfall totals
are higher due to an upslope component to the low-level flow.
Elsewhere...a Winter Weather Advisory will have to be considered
for the Metro areas Tuesday morning but confidence is too low
for an advisory at this time.


 

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MD Snow

MD Snow

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, mappy said:

Big difference between 12z and 06z is 06z had more precip making its way north from the coastal portion of the storm. 12z does not do that. 

Ha! The NAM has been terrible with this setup. 18z yesterday it had a band of snow from the coastal on the eastern shore then lost it at 0z then brought it back at 6z then lost it again at 12z. It has been pretty stingy with the IVT for a while now though...

I'll say this, somebody is probably going to end up with 1"+ out of this but we won't know exactly where until any bands actually set up. It is going to be fun for the hour that it actually snows though. Should come down hard and have very low visibility. 

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
Just now, MD Snow said:

Ha! The NAM has been terrible with this setup. 18z yesterday it had a band of snow from the coastal on the eastern shore then lost it at 0z then brought it back at 6z then lost it again at 12z. It has been pretty stingy with the IVT for a while now though...

Or its right. 

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted

seasoned vets correct me if i'm wrong, but it looks like this is a case where we just needed that clipper/vort further south.  i feel like our best opps are when it's sliding through southern va whereas we're kind of in the battleground for this one.  also, temps are really not our side (battleground stuff).  it'll take some moderate snow to get any kind of stickage given the recent warmth...at least for the cities.  i'm still in for some snow tv.

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, 87storms said:

seasoned vets correct me if i'm wrong, but it looks like this is a case where we just needed that clipper/vort further south.  i feel like our best opps are when it's sliding through southern va whereas we're kind of in the battleground for this one.  also, temps are really not our side (battleground stuff).  it'll take some moderate snow to get any kind of stickage given the recent warmth...at least for the cities.  i'm still in for some snow tv.

Good assessment. And the precip totals are not as heavy as they were in earlier runs. I dont know if it is due to the coastal robbing some moisture from the following wave or if the wave itself is just weaker. But it is not as vigorous as it was modeled to be last week.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, 87storms said:

seasoned vets correct me if i'm wrong, but it looks like this is a case where we just needed that clipper/vort further south.  i feel like our best opps are when it's sliding through southern va whereas we're kind of in the battleground for this one.  also, temps are really not our side (battleground stuff).  it'll take some moderate snow to get any kind of stickage given the recent warmth...at least for the cities.  i'm still in for some snow tv.

yeah looks like we want that vort further south. NAM saturday (i think) had a good example of a pretty darn good looking vort pass that would do well for us. From there it really is just where the IVT sets up shop and dumps. Where that happens will probably be real time tracking and not easily forecast. 

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted

 

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Good assessment. And the precip totals are not as heavy as they were in earlier runs. I dont know if it is due to the coastal robbing some moisture from the following wave or if the wave itself is just weaker. But it is not as vigorous as it was modeled to be last week.

mostly i'm just basing it off of experience living here...not so much sound meteorology, but it does seem like we need to be on the northern side of these systems otherwise we end up with a quick and/or showery type of event.  gotta optimize these types of systems or they'll leave you with conversational snow.

i did just see a tweet that because of the recent rains there may not be much in the way of brining, so that could make roads interesting in the morning if we do get a mod/heavy band of snow coming through.

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