Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Rtd208

February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 48degs., or +12degs.

Month to date is  +4.8.   Target is  +6.7.   Month should end at a record  +6.9.   Just making it with an extra positive surplus of 6 degrees to spare.  We will see if the next 8 days go as shown today.

With the above Feb. finish, the Winter would end at +1.0., making the correct call last Nov.---Near Normal with a Positive Bias.

LR Ensembles are not showing March as BN.  CFS or the EURO .

 

Thanks for these daily updates. This winter is about as volatile as one can get - from record cold in early January to record warmth now. But overall, the warmth will have won out, and it will be remembered as a fairly classic Nina progression: cold/snowy first half, warm/essentially snowless second half. March isn't included for meteorological winter temperatures, but March will be snowier than February.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like a wet weekend is in store. 2-3" of rain on most of the guidance, 00z Euro was a bit less. The interior seems to be favored once again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Enjoy the warm weather inland guys. After leaving the city last night the temp difference at my house was incredible. From warm 60s to raw 40s. As far as the way it “felt” the biggest difference I have ever experienced between the two places. Still in the 40s out here with low clouds. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Enjoy the warm weather inland guys. After leaving the city last night the temp difference at my house was incredible. From warm 60s to raw 40s. As far as the way it “felt” the biggest difference I have ever experienced between the two places. Still in the 40s out here with low clouds. 

I rather have raw 40s right now

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam is icy from NYC northward tomorrow

Looks like you have to be well North and West as the surface freezing line hangs around NE NJ.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.

We have one last shot at a big snowstorm between March 5-10th as the negative NAO rebounds, and if we miss I think that's about it.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We have one last shot at a big snowstorm between March 5-10th as the negative NAO rebounds, and if we miss I think that's about it.

Agreed, the blocking pattern will also favor Europe much more than us with both cold & snow. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Record Temperatures for February 21, 2018:

Atlantic City: 69° (old record: 67°, 1994 and 2016)
Binghamton: 66° (old record: 61°, 1953)
Boston: 65° (old record: 63°, 1906)
Burlington: 67° (old record: 59°, 1981)
Danbury: 65° (old record: 64°, 1953)
Hartford: 64° (old record: 63°, 1930)
New York City:
…LGA: 68° (tied record set in 1953)
Newark: 70° (old record: 69°, 1953)
Sterling, VA: 71° (old record: 70°, 1997)
Syracuse: 74° (old record: 65°, 1953 and 1997) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 71°, 2/24/2017)***
White Plains: 65° (old record: 61°, 2002)
Wilmington, DE: 70° (tied record set in 1953)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

EWR up to 73 as of 11:30 am. May as well make a run of 80. Its going to happen in February eventually

Today is the day. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

EWR up to 73 as of 11:30 am. May as well make a run of 80. Its going to happen in February eventually

74 at noon

These words hurt. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you're wondering how a massive -NAO and 50/50 confluent LP pair interact to change storm behavior, the 12z GFS is a great example of that.

5a8dacfbcd70e_12zgfssfc180-24022118.thumb.gif.6559502901ce944e889ec7c10fe1dccd.gif

A lakes cutter (seemingly) is forced SE due to the upper air flow and becomes a ~985mb LP decaying off the coast. There's another situation of a miller B scenario where a system in the OH Valley is forced S of the area and amplifies into another ~985mb LP (post truncation!). 

The blocking slows down the pattern dramatically. There are huge LP centers in the Atlantic that completely clog up the flow; they occlude and retrograde as they completely cut off from the jet stream. The massive upper level LP S of Greenland barely moves in three days. This allows systems off the EC to have time to amplify and stall. 

5a8dadafbec24_12zgfs500mb204-31222118.thumb.gif.fa3dad05c68215e1041f6a68784fb059.gif

Such a loaded pattern in so many ways. Amazing.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×