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February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 48degs., or +12degs.

Month to date is  +4.8.   Target is  +6.7.   Month should end at a record  +6.9.   Just making it with an extra positive surplus of 6 degrees to spare.  We will see if the next 8 days go as shown today.

With the above Feb. finish, the Winter would end at +1.0., making the correct call last Nov.---Near Normal with a Positive Bias.

LR Ensembles are not showing March as BN.  CFS or the EURO .

 

Thanks for these daily updates. This winter is about as volatile as one can get - from record cold in early January to record warmth now. But overall, the warmth will have won out, and it will be remembered as a fairly classic Nina progression: cold/snowy first half, warm/essentially snowless second half. March isn't included for meteorological winter temperatures, but March will be snowier than February.

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4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Enjoy the warm weather inland guys. After leaving the city last night the temp difference at my house was incredible. From warm 60s to raw 40s. As far as the way it “felt” the biggest difference I have ever experienced between the two places. Still in the 40s out here with low clouds. 

I rather have raw 40s right now

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According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.

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31 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.

We have one last shot at a big snowstorm between March 5-10th as the negative NAO rebounds, and if we miss I think that's about it.

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Record Temperatures for February 21, 2018:

Atlantic City: 69° (old record: 67°, 1994 and 2016)
Binghamton: 66° (old record: 61°, 1953)
Boston: 65° (old record: 63°, 1906)
Burlington: 67° (old record: 59°, 1981)
Danbury: 65° (old record: 64°, 1953)
Hartford: 64° (old record: 63°, 1930)
New York City:
…LGA: 68° (tied record set in 1953)
Newark: 70° (old record: 69°, 1953)
Sterling, VA: 71° (old record: 70°, 1997)
Syracuse: 74° (old record: 65°, 1953 and 1997) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 71°, 2/24/2017)***
White Plains: 65° (old record: 61°, 2002)
Wilmington, DE: 70° (tied record set in 1953)

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If you're wondering how a massive -NAO and 50/50 confluent LP pair interact to change storm behavior, the 12z GFS is a great example of that.

5a8dacfbcd70e_12zgfssfc180-24022118.thumb.gif.6559502901ce944e889ec7c10fe1dccd.gif

A lakes cutter (seemingly) is forced SE due to the upper air flow and becomes a ~985mb LP decaying off the coast. There's another situation of a miller B scenario where a system in the OH Valley is forced S of the area and amplifies into another ~985mb LP (post truncation!). 

The blocking slows down the pattern dramatically. There are huge LP centers in the Atlantic that completely clog up the flow; they occlude and retrograde as they completely cut off from the jet stream. The massive upper level LP S of Greenland barely moves in three days. This allows systems off the EC to have time to amplify and stall. 

5a8dadafbec24_12zgfs500mb204-31222118.thumb.gif.fa3dad05c68215e1041f6a68784fb059.gif

Such a loaded pattern in so many ways. Amazing.

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