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February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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I decided to make a composite of the 500mb anomaly four days away from NYC snowfalls over 15". Unfortunately, I was unable to put the blizzard of 1888 and a couple other storms before 1948. However, the features of the loading patterns before these major snowfalls are quite similar to the pattern that we are about to enter.

5a8c818172a0b_nycsnowfallsover15inches.gif.1ad343973ec2887de22123751e418288.gif

The two standout features of the pattern are strong west-based Greenland blocking and a deep NE trough. There is a trough off the WC with below normal heights in the Southwest and general high heights in the AO and EPO/WPO regions. These features are closely related to the pattern that will move in during the next week. This is very important and perhaps counterintuitive for some: there is NO +PNA! A western ridge is not necessary with 50/50 confluence along with a strong block. If anything, it would not allow storms to amplify and tap southern moisture.

5a8c8191b7185_12zgefs500mb28822018.thumb.png.5cc61798fa6b04a91e65863909893f1c.png5a8c819795102_12zgeps500mb28822018.thumb.png.5b08181d4655aad6a97d13ff37af8abf.png

The patterns shown on the GEFS and GEPS are not perfect matches, but they are definitely conducive for a MECS. Most importantly, the most features are there: the massive Greenland block and the 50/50 confluence over the NE. There is also the presence of a NW US trough and low heights over the SW US. There is a stronger Aleutian ridge than the composite, but that still keeps with the theme of higher heights in the EPO/WPO regions. The GEPS has a central US ridge, but it has a bias of overdoing US heights whenever possible, so I am not betting too highly on that. 

All in all, the pattern that we are about to enter is highly conducive for major snowfall events. The presence of massive high-latitude blocking and 50/50 confluence are the defining features of the pattern, and they will end up driving systems south of the area, as the 12z ECMWF showed earlier. The March 3-11 period is incredibly ripe for a MECS+, so get some sleep now. This is what many posters, including myself, here have driven home for more than a month now: the development of a highly favorable -NAO pattern in the later stages in the winter. Buckle up.

 

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Might be an Ambrose Jet day later today or tomorrow? No way there isn’t a roaring wind off the ocean sooner or later when there’s this kind of contrast and high pressure that develops offshore, unless there’s somehow a stronger westerly component. 

JFK was able to set a new daily record right before the seabreeze kicked in.

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64 DEGREES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 61 SET IN 1949.
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The higher geopotential height induction over the EPO domain occurs fairly rapidly (circa March 1st) and consequently, 850mb temperature anomalies  respond over the Northeast. So this does not look like a stale/mild airmass to me. It's not severe cold but it will be more than sufficient. The mid level flow is emanating from the NW territories, even though the trough buckles near the West Coast (it's not significantly modifying the downstream airmass).

 

The GWO collapse and concurrent MJO/GWO pulse 1-2 is reflective of a severe retraction event driven by momentum removal, tropical forcing, and torques. Poleward AAM transport has initiated and will encompass the higher latitudes for the first half of March.

 

33z5jxy.png

 

10p7ck3.png

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36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Sneaky mixed precip for Thursday, will come as a shock to most people after mid to upper 70s tomorrow. 

Daytime temps may only be in the 30s for Thursday.

Yep, studded snow tires may go back on on Thursday afternoon.  Don't want a repeat of the Valentine's Day morning ice rink on the Bear Mountain Palisades Pkwy....

 

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The 2 most impressive record high temperatures so far.

 

78 at PIT as of 3:55 PM - new all-time February record for Pittsburgh!
 
 
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY FL
330 PM EST TUE FEB 20 2018

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE AND MONTH SET AT TAMPA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES HAS BEEN SET AT TAMPA TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD FOR TODAY OF 87 LAST SET IN 1997. THIS
ALSO BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY OF 88 DEGREES SET YESTERDAY FEBRUARY 19 AND BACK ON
FEBRUARY 26 1971.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT TAMPA INTERNATIONAL SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 73
DEGREES WHICH WOULD ALSO SET A NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE
DATE AND THE MONTH IF THE TEMPERATURE DOES NOT DROP LOWER BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR TODAY IS 69 DEGREES SET IN
1961 AND THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM FOR THE MONTH OF 72 DEGREES WAS
JUST SET LAST WEEK ON FEBRUARY 12.
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2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I decided to make a composite of the 500mb anomaly four days away from NYC snowfalls over 15". Unfortunately, I was unable to put the blizzard of 1888 and a couple other storms before 1948. However, the features of the loading patterns before these major snowfalls are quite similar to the pattern that we are about to enter.

5a8c818172a0b_nycsnowfallsover15inches.gif.1ad343973ec2887de22123751e418288.gif

The two standout features of the pattern are strong west-based Greenland blocking and a deep NE trough. There is a trough off the WC with below normal heights in the Southwest and general high heights in the AO and EPO/WPO regions. These features are closely related to the pattern that will move in during the next week. This is very important and perhaps counterintuitive for some: there is NO +PNA! A western ridge is not necessary with 50/50 confluence along with a strong block. If anything, it would not allow storms to amplify and tap southern moisture.

5a8c8191b7185_12zgefs500mb28822018.thumb.png.5cc61798fa6b04a91e65863909893f1c.png5a8c819795102_12zgeps500mb28822018.thumb.png.5b08181d4655aad6a97d13ff37af8abf.png

The patterns shown on the GEFS and GEPS are not perfect matches, but they are definitely conducive for a MECS. Most importantly, the most features are there: the massive Greenland block and the 50/50 confluence over the NE. There is also the presence of a NW US trough and low heights over the SW US. There is a stronger Aleutian ridge than the composite, but that still keeps with the theme of higher heights in the EPO/WPO regions. The GEPS has a central US ridge, but it has a bias of overdoing US heights whenever possible, so I am not betting too highly on that. 

All in all, the pattern that we are about to enter is highly conducive for major snowfall events. The presence of massive high-latitude blocking and 50/50 confluence are the defining features of the pattern, and they will end up driving systems south of the area, as the 12z ECMWF showed earlier. The March 3-11 period is incredibly ripe for a MECS+, so get some sleep now. This is what many posters, including myself, here have driven home for more than a month now: the development of a highly favorable -NAO pattern in the later stages in the winter. Buckle up.

 

Here's the map 4 days prior to the Blizzard of 1888.

March81888500mb.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Stop trolling

All the models have a big block developing. March is going to feature some wild weather in the first 2 weeks of the month.

The issue for us is are we cold enough. I think there will be a big storm. But we do not want a March 11 repeat. High elevations are a lock for big snows 

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Ridiculous to break a record like this the very next year.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
0516 PM EST TUE FEB 20 2018

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT CHARLESTON WV...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES WAS SET AT CHARLESTON WV
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 77 SET IN 1939.  THIS ALSO
BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY OF 80 SET IN 2017.
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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It only took 2 years to break the record again.

 


...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 62 SET IN 2016.

THIS RECORD WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY IF THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO RISE.

We probably could’ve touched 70 if the winds didn’t shift. I made it to 65 with the temp still climbing quickly (nearly a degree every 10 minutes) right before it abruptly started tumbling.

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25 minutes ago, Cfa said:

We probably could’ve touched 70 if the winds didn’t shift. I made it to 65 with the temp still climbing quickly (nearly a degree every 10 minutes) right before it abruptly started tumbling.

Yeah, the ocean temps were just a little too cool to do it on more of a S to SW flow. The warmer SST's helped out for the earliest 70 on 3/10/16.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/ISP/2016/3/10/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

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Next 8 days averaging 48degs., or +12degs.

Month to date is  +4.8.   Target is  +6.7.   Month should end at a record  +6.9.   Just making it with an extra positive surplus of 6 degrees to spare.  We will see if the next 8 days go as shown today.

With the above Feb. finish, the Winter would end at +1.0., making the correct call last Nov.---Near Normal with a Positive Bias.

LR Ensembles are not showing March as BN.  CFS or the EURO .

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Ahead of what promises to be a second day of record-challenging to record-breaking warmth across much of the region, the temperature tied or set daily records in a number of locations in the East yesterday. Boston hit 70°, marking only its 3rd 70° or warmer temperature on record in February since daily record keeping began there in 1872. The other 70° readings were February 24, 1985 (70°) and February 24, 2017 (73°).

Records included:

Atlantic City: 73° (old record: 66°, 1994)
Baltimore: 76° (tied record set in 1930)
Boston: 70° (old record: 68°, 1930)
Bridgeport: 56° (old record: 54°, 1949 and 1991)
Islip: 64° (old record: 62°, 2016)
New Haven: 59° (old record: 55°, 1949 and 2016)
New York City:
…JFK: 64° (old record: 61°, 1949)
…LGA: 70° (old record: 63°, 1943)
Philadelphia: 72° (old record: 70°, 1930 and 1939)
Poughkeepsie: 67° (old record: 63°, 2016)
Sterling, VA: 77° (old record: 70°, 1979)
Washington, DC: 78° (old record: 76°, 1930)
Westhampton: 55° (old record: 52°, 2016)
White Plains: 65° (old record: 61°, 1997)
Wilmington, DE: 75° (old record: 71°, 1930)
Worcester: 67° (old record: 65°, 1930)

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/20 39.3° (2/20 estimate: 39.1°-39.4°; 4.8° above normal)
2/28 41.2°-42.7° (2/19 estimate: 41.3°-43.2°)

The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°.

Through February 20, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature is highly competitive with that of the two warmest Februaries on record.

2/1-20 Average Temperature:

2012: 39.8° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record)
2017: 38.3° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record)
2018: 39.3°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 81% (2/19 estimate: 80%). The statistical probability of a record warm February remains approximately 50%.

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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These new extremes just keep coming in the 2010's.

This is BANANAS. The 500mb height from this evening's weather balloon launch on Long Island is a record for December, January, February, March and (tied) April. This is not normal. #nbcct pic.twitter.com/mOsFV2N6Kv
 
DWhXc8kW4AAic53.jpg-small.jpg.546df42878a419dc852c8ee02debf49a.jpg
 
 

That is pretty amazing
How many blades of grass are in a 1ft space? 

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Blocking continues to looks strong on the EPS and GEFS.

The EPO is forecasted to turn negative as well on both model suites.

The PNA goes positive on the GEFS, and rises to slightly negative on the EPS.

Nothing represented on the models as of yet. Is it possible not to score with the above teleconnections?

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35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Blocking continues to looks strong on the EPS and GEFS.

The EPO is forecasted to turn negative as well on both model suites.

The PNA goes positive on the GEFS, and rises to slightly negative on the EPS.

Nothing represented on the models as of yet. Is it possible not to score with the above teleconnections?

The GFS has shown things in the long range. Sometimes a bit warm, but with that pattern I would think we could see better consistency closer in. Snow is no guarantee even in a good pattern, though. 

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