Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
On 2/17/2018 at 9:59 AM, uncle W said:

here are some of my links to past weather...Boston included...I've been keeping records for NYC weather since the early 1960's so a lot of my research was done many years ago...I used to go to the weather bureau in Manhattan and go over the official books...now they are in Upton NY...they might as well be in Boston that far away...

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ma0770

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_finish=0.1933526659132916

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/mapGUI/mapGUI.php

Thank you so much for sharing these links and the thoughtful response!  

Hoping you, and all others within this subforum, will see another significant event before this season comes to a close.   Myself, I anticipate the two week period between March 3 and the 17th...will be the most likely interval to produce.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Next 8 days averaging 50degs., or +14degs.

Month to date is  +4.0.  Should be  +7.0 by the 28th.  Target is to end month  @+6.7 or more..  So with these numbers, the 28th will have to be  9degs. BN in order to stop a new monthly record.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

An early and strong taste of springlike weather lies ahead. Near record to record warmth is likely today and tomorrow.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/19 38.4° (4.0° above normal)
2/20 39.1°-39.4° (2/19 estimate: 39.3°-39.6°)
2/28 41.0°-42.7° (2/19 estimate: 41.3°-43.2°)

The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°.

Through February 19, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature is highly competitive with that of the two warmest Februaries on record.

2/1-19 Average Temperature:

2012: 39.8° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record)
2017: 37.8° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record)
2018: 38.4°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 80% (2/19 estimate: 80%). The statistical probability of a record warm February is approximately 50% (slightly higher).

The teleconnection forecast calls for an AO-/PNA- pattern to start March. Such a pattern has accounted for 25% of the snowstorms that brought NYC 4” or more snow during the March 1-15, 1950-2017 period. 40% of those storms brought 4” or more snow to Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia. The biggest such storm was the March 1960 blizzard that dumped 19.8” snow in Boston, 14.6” snow in New York City, and 8.4” snow in Philadelphia.

Reflecting a shortening of wave lengths, 50% of cases where 4” or more snow fell in NYC during the March 1-15, 1950-2017 period occurred with a negative PNA. 40% occurred with a positive AO. 25% also occurred with an AO+/PNA- pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

An early and strong taste of springlike weather lies ahead. Near record to record warmth is likely tomorrow and Wednesday.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/19 38.4° (4.0° above normal)
2/20 39.1°-39.4° (2/19 estimate: 39.3°-39.6°)
2/28 41.0°-42.7° (2/19 estimate: 41.3°-43.2°)

The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°.

Through February 19, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature is highly competitive with that of the two warmest Februaries on record.

2/1-19 Average Temperature:

2012: 39.8° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record)
2017: 37.8° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record)
2018: 38.4°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 80% (2/19 estimate: 80%). The statistical probability of a record warm February is approximately 50% (slightly higher).

The teleconnection forecast calls for an AO-/PNA- pattern to start March. Such a pattern has accounted for 25% of the snowstorms that brought NYC 4” or more snow during the March 1-15, 1950-2017 period. 40% of those storms brought 4” or more snow to Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia. The biggest such storm was the March 1960 blizzard that dumped 19.8” snow in Boston, 14.6” snow in New York City, and 8.4” snow in Philadelphia.

Reflecting a shortening of wave lengths, 50% of cases where 4” or more snow fell in NYC during the March 1-15, 1950-2017 period occurred with a negative PNA. 40% occurred with a positive AO. 25% also occurred with an AO+/PNA- pattern.

With a negative nao , i would think the probability of a big stoem would Increase.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Visibility here under 300'.  Temp. is 50.  

From a distance away inside the room, the spaces in the vertical blinds,  seem to be hiding a whiteout blizzard!  Should be so lucky.  Up close the truth is laid bare.

Visibility quickly up to 3-5miles, temp. 52   9AM

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Record breaking February ridge over the area tonight into Wednesday. It will take the -NAO/-AO retrogression until the first week of March to get a trough back into the Northeast.   

 

 

eps_z500a_noram_7.thumb.png.e048caf4bdeac14cc54b7a3d7b6cb0d3.png

eps_z500a_noram_61.thumb.png.a2c00d0a1caea14a8620805d2f97befb.png

 

 

 

 

What is the catalyst for such a robust ridge? And two years in a row, no less. Just strange. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

With a negative nao , i would think the probability of a big stoem would Increase.

The possibility of a slow-moving storm would be elevated by Greenland blocking. Once we get through this unseasonable warmth, there might be one or two good opportunities for a meaningful snowstorm during the first half of March.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Cfa said:

64 here, partly cloudy to mostly sunny. I wasn’t expecting it to clear out this much out here.

It only took 2 years to break the record again.

 

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 62 SET IN 2016.

THIS RECORD WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY IF THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO RISE.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Insane warmth on the south shore today with the wantagh mesonet peaking at 62. The wind has since some around to the south more and the temp has dropped back to 54. 62 right on the 38 degree Bay in February is mind boggling. 

Might be an Ambrose Jet day later today or tomorrow? No way there isn’t a roaring wind off the ocean sooner or later when there’s this kind of contrast and high pressure that develops offshore, unless there’s somehow a stronger westerly component. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...