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February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Low 70s are not that unusual for late February. In 97 we got 74. It would need to be 75+ to be really noteworthy

Since 1869, February has had only 10 days on which the temperature hit 70 or above in Central Park. Half of those days occurred after 1980. Further, the probability  of such exceptional warmth has nearly doubled since the 1961-90 baseline.

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7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Since 1869, February has had only 10 days on which the temperature hit 70 or above in Central Park. Half of those days occurred after 1980. Further, the probability  of such exceptional warmth has nearly doubled since the 1961-90 baseline.

I could be wrong but most of those were in 1997 and 85 and none in the past 20 years

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1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

Last February had record warmth followed by a blizzard in these parts in March.  Would love a repeat, except no sleet for anyone. 

I'd say the chances are much greater than climo. The ensembles are really hitting the blocking hard last few days. The PNA also starts to lose its importance by March.

I found that some of our biggest events come before or after record warm periods, it's like a rubber band snapping into place.

We're also in an unprecedented era of extremes. 

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Newark has recorded 17 days (DJF) since  96-97 of 70 or warmer. From 31-32 to 95-96 Newark only had a total of 13 days.

Newark DJF 70's

16-17...1

15-16...1

13-14...1

10-11...1

06-07...2

01-02...4

98-99...4

97-98...1

96-97...2

84-85...2

82-83...2

78-79...1

53-54...2

49-50...1

48-49...1

46-47...1

38-39...1

31-32...2

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6 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

A positive I am seeing on the EPS and GEFS is a return to a negative EPO. That coupled with the negative AO and NAO could be a powder keg.

Add in the MJO going through phases 8 1 and 2 for good measure.

Hope this does not muck of spring.

I believe there will be potential during the first half of March. Then, it will be interesting to see if winter suddenly gives way to sustained spring warmth.

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe there will be potential during the first half of March. Then, it will be interesting to see if winter suddenly gives way to sustained spring warmth.

..JB/earthlight/anthony masielo just to name a few(and you too don) believe late feb, early march will 

feature a deep -NAO..analogs are comparing upcoming period to march 1962..i'll have to check the 

bible(kocin-uccellini).

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On 2/17/2018 at 11:21 AM, SnoSki14 said:

It keeps getting delayed. The SE ridging continues to trend stronger as we get closer. In fact we may see another round of record breaking warmth (70+) next weekend too, which would guarantee a record warm February. 

So either the blocking is delayed not denied or it never realizes its full potential. 

 

I am not sure what you look at man , 

The blocking should end up close to 4/5 SD BN

In fact it may be one of deepest March blocks  that we have seen in the last 10 years.

 

The warmth this week will break many records along the EC but that in no way has any effect on what is setting up in the higher latitudes and over Greenland from late FEB thru at least March 10 th or even beyond.

 

Many of us expect a large EC storm during the period , the ensembles are already hinting at one between the 3rd - 5th

 

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1 hour ago, tim said:

..JB/earthlight/anthony masielo just to name a few(and you too don) believe late feb, early march will 

feature a deep -NAO..analogs are comparing upcoming period to march 1962..i'll have to check the 

bible(kocin-uccellini).

March 1962, which featured a severe storm that impacted the Mid-Atlantic region, but largely spared the NYC Metro Area was one such case. The first half of March will probably have an above climatological risk of a significant snowstorm if the blocking develops as forecast.

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

March 1962, which featured a severe storm that impacted the Mid-Atlantic region, but largely spared the NYC Metro Area was one such case. The first half of March will probably have an above climatological risk of a significant snowstorm if the blocking develops as forecast.

The Ash Wedsnesday Storm severely damaged Long Beach Island in NJ if I recall correctly.   Huge impacts in DE, MD, VA and NC.

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2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

I am not sure what you look at man , 

The blocking should end up close to 4/5 SD BN

In fact it may be one of deepest March blocks  that we have seen in the last 10 years.

 

The warmth this week will break many records along the EC but that in no way has any effect on what is setting up in the higher latitudes and over Greenland from late FEB thru at least March 10 th or even beyond.

 

Many of us expect a large EC storm during the period , the ensembles are already hinting at one between the 3rd - 5th

 

I'm on board, a couple days ago there was still some waffling going on as to when the blocking would fully set-up. The picture has gotten a lot more clearer with great agreement from the GEFS and EPS. 

I actually feel better about a big March storm when there's record warmth preceding it. I think once those 70s hit most of the public won't even think about winter, but it ain't over. 

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Absolutely classic pattern evolution. The emergence of high heights from the Kara Sea evolves into a -5 sigma NAO block that decays over northern Canada. The lower heights in the Pac NW provide ample shortwaves that are able to slow and amplify due to the blocked, decompressed height field over the E US. The STJ would also be open for business with a flow from the SW US in part of the pattern. There is also a persistent jet stream off the EC, which promotes the development of storm systems off the coast, south of our latitude. 

This is a KU pattern, no doubt about it. In fact, the decay of the blocking is just as important as the blocking itself, as many of our largest winter storms form when high-latitude ridging weakens. I fully expect a MECS during the first two weeks of March. Get some sleep while you can.

2B082415-6E86-4236-84DB-0C43B8FA0CEA.thumb.gif.89ed2c873607b7be8ddec7412c0bf2e2.gif

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6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Absolutely classic pattern evolution. The emergence of high heights from the Kara Sea evolves into a -5 sigma NAO block that decays over northern Canada. The lower heights in the Pac NW provide ample shortwaves that are able to slow and amplify due to the blocked, decompressed height field over the E US. The STJ would also be open for business with a flow from the SW US in part of the pattern. There is also a persistent jet stream off the EC, which promotes the development of storm systems off the coast, south of our latitude. 

This is a KU pattern, no doubt about it. In fact, the decay of the blocking is just as important as the blocking itself, as many of our largest winter storms form when high-latitude ridging weakens. I fully expect a MECS during the first two weeks of March. Get some sleep while you can.

2B082415-6E86-4236-84DB-0C43B8FA0CEA.thumb.gif.89ed2c873607b7be8ddec7412c0bf2e2.gif

 

Agreed.  - 4/5/6 SD NAO / AO is the set up is for a high end event.

It's a gorgeous pattern 

 

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An early and strong taste of springlike weather lies ahead. Near record to record warmth is likely tomorrow and Wednesday.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/18 38.2° (3.8° above normal)
2/20 39.3°-39.6° (2/18 estimate: 39.2°-39.8°)
2/28 41.3°-43.2° (2/18 estimate: 41.1°-43.2°)

The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°.

Through February 17, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature is highly competitive with that of the two warmest Februaries on record.

2/1-18 Average Temperature:

2012: 39.8° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record)
2017: 36.7° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record)
2018: 38.2°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 80% (2/18 estimate: 79%). The statistical probability of a record warm February is approximately 55%.

Finally, there is now good agreement on the ensembles that the AO will fall to -3.000 or below during the opening days of March. Since 1950, there were 16 years during which the AO fell to -3.000 or below during the March 1-10 period. 50% saw at least one 4” or greater snowstorm. That’s 36% above climatology for the March 1950-2017 period. There were also some near misses in 1962 and 2001.

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I guess the only caveat is that posters wished this pattern emerged earlier in the winter instead of at the beginning of meteorological spring. But this looks like it will be our biggest March AO drop since 2013.

 

I thought this was going to happen by the 15th and it blew my monthly forecast departure apart 

But it does in deed develop just 2 weeks late and it looks to be very strong 

I think people saw from the 6 inch plus snowstorm graphic that was posted here a week ago , there are as many 6 inch snows in NYC March 1 - 20 as there are Jan 1 - 20 

So three plenty of time left 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see the retrograding block and 50/50 low are we head into early March. It looks like a very strong early spring Noreaster signal. So with the right track, a warning level snowstorm could be in the cards. This 2010's pattern just keeps finding ways to snow even following record warmth.

 

I have 33 inches of snow YTD here , my call was for 50 for the season , I believe I have a real shot

 

What is setting up is a pattern that is conducive for a large slow EC system to take shape 

 

My first period is the 2 - 5 but it's not the last 

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see how the tail end of the EPS is picking up on the energy getting forced underneath as the block retrogrades. Probably plenty of model mayhem as they don't do very well under retrograding blocks. 

 

I keyed in that as just the first period , the block seems to have some duration this time , so it will be interesting to see how many SWs are in the undercutting jet over a 2 week period.

Lets get the first one and anything after that is gravy 

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13 hours ago, tim said:

..JB/earthlight/anthony masielo just to name a few(and you too don) believe late feb, early march will 

feature a deep -NAO..analogs are comparing upcoming period to march 1962..i'll have to check the 

bible(kocin-uccellini).

Better not hope March 1962 analog verifies because there was only 0.2 inches of snow in NYC that March ……..

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