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February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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22 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

I agree plus we have been spoiled for the most part with so many above normal to much above normal winters the last 10 - 15 years - makes us feel like we are not getting enough snow when in reality we are on target for a normal season averaging in all the seasons well beyond the last 10 -15

I agree. Expecting a string of multiple warning level events in NYC as a "normal" winter is a relatively new thing. Thats a patteren developed during the 2000s. If thats a new normal here to stay I dunno. When I get dissapointed about a snow event I remember I used to get excited for  2" - 4" to rain events b/c there was no confidence anything better was coming unless your N&W of nyc. Several of the last 10 yrs or so have been my snow dreams come true. I'll take a near normal winter as a small price to pay.

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The record MJO 6 was so impressive, that the pattern is still trending more negative on the PNA even though it has gone into 7. The lag effect with the MJO looks like it may be more pronounced than usual. Even though the MJO may propagate into the more favorable phases, it may take longer than normal for those effects to be seen. This would unfortunately allow the WAR or SE ridge to linger well into February.

 

eps_pna_bias.thumb.png.1d28e81b7b3f14532c9d8f1cf5c16f46.png

 

 

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Just now, bluewave said:

The record MJO 6 was so impressive, that the pattern is still trending more negative on the PNA even though it has gone into 7. The lag effect with the MJO looks like it may be more pronounced than usual. So even though the MJO may propagate into the more favorable phases, it may take longer than normal for those effects to be seen. This would unfortunately allow the WAR or SE ridge to linger well into February.

 

eps_pna_bias.thumb.png.1d28e81b7b3f14532c9d8f1cf5c16f46.png

 

 

The PNA was forecasted to be positive by this time 2 weeks ago.

Horrible forecasts by thse charts.

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6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

The SSW is getting very late in the season and there's up to a 4-6 week lag before we see meaningful impacts, so I wouldn't get my hopes up even if the MJO speeds up any possible impacts. 

It can't just be colder than normal by late Feb/early March either, it has to be well BN with a strong arctic supply for us to have a chance.

Best we can hope for is something like early March 2009. Chances for snow are still decent up until March 10. 

Not sure about your location, but last March was good as well as March 2015. Even had a minor event March 2016.

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If someone would have told me the day after the blizzard that I would not have received a 1 inch event since till FEB 6 and prospects at that point would be bleak I would have laughed, however here I am. Nonetheless, some good news in the lr below w/r/t the AO and MJO below. Hope PNA goes positive so the trough is not I the west at that point.

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.38a05b572decc3b77b62a6d0c64861f1.gif

ensplume_small.gif.d02f9b6c26aaf03bc66ba6e1ba82792e.gif

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11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If someone would have told me the day after the blizzard that I would not have received a 1 inch event since till FEB 6 and prospects at that point would be bleak I would have laughed, however here I am. Nonetheless, some good news in the lr below w/r/t the AO and MJO below. Hope PNA goes positive so the trough is not I the west at that point.

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.38a05b572decc3b77b62a6d0c64861f1.gif

ensplume_small.gif.d02f9b6c26aaf03bc66ba6e1ba82792e.gif

Things are looking promising towards mid month and beyong especially with the SSW taking effect.

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58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pattern looks like it wants to revert to a classic February La Nina -PNA pattern for a while. Very strong agreement between Euro, GFS, and CMC. 

 

test8.thumb.gif.bc3d6dacfc46308a0aa9c53e43a7b9a4.gif

 

 

 

We should have a typical February/Nina warmer than normal departure. NYC's trend will be upwards through the meteorological winter: cold Dec, near normal/slightly below Jan, and probably warmer than normal Feb. Should be interesting to see if we can make a run at 0 for the DJF departure, but that would require a solid +3 month or greater.

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1 minute ago, Isotherm said:

 

We should have a typical February/Nina warmer than normal departure. NYC's trend will be upwards through the meteorological winter: cold Dec, near normal/slightly below Jan, and probably warmer than normal Feb. Should be interesting to see if we can make a run at 0 for the DJF departure, but that would require a solid +3 month or greater.

The MJO was so extreme in phase 5-6, that the forcing is staying put over the MC and WPAC. So we default to a classic La Nina pattern. The recent drop in Nino 4 SST's is probably helping to hold this pattern in place.

ecmwf_chi_200_globe_21.thumb.png.2c9404016c961872ef01b13620bbbe09.png

 

nino4.png.222a99abd9fdecbe42c0671f1129c0d3.png

 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, doncat said:

Well last winter it took till mid March to get some of us to normal snowfall...hope we don't have to  wait as long again.

Apparently the MJO is supposed to go to phase 8 and 1 and 2, therefore we should be in better shape later in the month. Also Isotherm wrote yesterday about the favorable pattern later in the month and beginning of March.

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30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Apparently the MJO is supposed to go to phase 8 and 1 and 2, therefore we should be in better shape later in the month. Also Isotherm wrote yesterday about the favorable pattern later in the month and beginning of March.

March storms....possible but usually disappoint. I am spooling the fishing reels already. Most of the ice is gone and it's time to break up the boredom. I never look to March to salvage the winter. Even if it does, it is likely to be a slushy sleet fest. What can you do, nothing right? Hope things turn around and if they don't enjoy the spring. Pray for a mild hurricane season ( the tropical systems really wrecked the coastal fishing last year, I get seasick in those swells ).

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1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

March storms....possible but usually disappoint. I am spooling the fishing reels already. Most of the ice is gone and it's time to break up the boredom. I never look to March to salvage the winter. Even if it does, it is likely to be a slushy sleet fest. What can you do, nothing right? Hope things turn around and if they don't enjoy the spring. Pray for a mild hurricane season ( the tropical systems really wrecked the coastal fishing last year, I get seasick in those swells ).

To each his own. That was the best September surf wise since well... ever. I would take that again in a heart beat. Minus the devestation.

last week of February and the first week of March are prime snow time for everyone in this forum. It’s after that, that it gets dicey

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

To each his own. That was the best September surf wise since well... ever. I would take that again in a heart beat. Minus the devestation.

last week of February and the first week of March are prime snow time for everyone in this forum. It’s after that, that it gets dicey

Surf fishing or surfing? Anglers don't surf:) ....fishing season other than porgies was bad, and about 5 days of striper fishing. Then again I'm on Raritan which I think is far from you.

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48 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Monthlies showed a BN Dec-Jan with a torch for Feb a couple months ago, so they've done very well. 

I know it's early but I'm pretty confident that winter is basically over. I'm not getting my hopes up for March. 

I think you might be right. Something has seemed off about this winter. Seemed like after Dec we were gonna get wound up....then the Jan 4 storm which was underwhelming for many of us ( what can you do? if the bands don't wanna move west across the Hudson, they ain't gonna ) and nothing much since. Seen this before. happy for what we got, glad I didn't spring for a new snowblower.

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The Nov / Dec / Jan was forecast and ended up BN.

I originally thought/ forecast  FEB would finish well BN , in fact I thought relative to averages it would be the coldest and snowiest of them all.

It will not happen, in fact once we get to the 20th NYC will probably be close to + 3.

FEB will just can not resolve the lag of the formidable poor MJO phases and that will be a big bust.

My temperature departure from Jan 30 - 10 still looks good , but if it doesn't snow I guess it's no big deal.

I believe the MJO will run 8 1 2 3 starting by day 12 and believe  FEB 20 - MAR 15 ends up being a very good winter period.

After that it's Stanton/Judge/ Sanchez time.

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