Paragon Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 hours ago, weatherpruf said: I am 55 years old and seen a lot of winters. I don't care what the rest of the tri state area has seen, in our area we are about a foot below average. April 2003? I was around for April 82. We have a chance for snow then sure. We have a chance for hurricanes every year too. Doesn't mean it will happen. If you want to believe we have 10 weeks of winter left by all means have at it. I hope you are right. In this part of NJ, it has not been a particularly snowy winter. It has been cold, but so what? It has also been warm. C'mon, don't tell me this has been a great winter. It hasn't been a total dud, but it hasn't been impressive in our backyard. How do I know? No one is complaining much. See, the locals hate snow. Ask some. And they aren't feeling like we've taken a beating this year. Because we haven't. Now, some may say I'm an IMBY type. I am! I don't care what it does on LI or Atlantic City or Albany. I don't even care what it does in High Point NJ. If it ain't happening here, I'm really not terribly interested. This doesn't make your observations less valid or important. I just don't agree. Ya know, it snowed in October in 2011. That only happened twice in my lifetime here; and I remember the 73 event, if you could call it that. So you could argue that our snow season runs from late Oct through early April. But really, how much snow do we see Oct, Nov, or April? Or even Dec? Or even March? I remember almost a decade without snow in March. In fact, the weather has been so boring here of late I have time to write long answers here....anyway, point is, I don't really think we have a very good shot at another ten weeks of wintry weather. I'd bet against it, even in a heavy winter. Do I know the future? Of course not, and I'll be there reading your informative posts any time a storm looks promising. And I hope there will be one, or more! We had 7" of snow here in April 2003 on the south shore of Nassau County too, one of my favorite events. My three big April events were April 82, April 96 and April 03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: Looks like we were in the screw zone on that one...I didn't think it was memorable around here and 4-10 ( probably on the lower end here ) would have been nothing special after the spectacular year before.... I found newspaper articles about it, we weren't supposed to get anything but it crept north and we ended up with 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 5 hours ago, Paragon said: We had 7" of snow here in April 2003 on the south shore of Nassau County too, one of my favorite events. My three big April events were April 82, April 96 and April 03. I'd love to see a good April event again. They are so few and far between, and understandably so considering our latitude and coastal proximity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Yesterday 0.96” precipitation fell in New York City. That was the City’s highest daily precipitation amount since 3.03” rain fell on October 29, 2017. In the wake of the rainfall, a seasonably cold air mass has moved into the region. This will set the stage for a storm that will likely bring accumulating snow across interior sections of the region on Wednesday into Thursday. An area running across northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, central New York State into central New England has the potential to pick up 4” or more snow. Albany, where seasonal snowfall is now running nearly 12” below normal, could see 4” or more. A smaller area including southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, and a portion of Down East Maine could see 8” or more. New York City and its nearby northern and western suburbs could pick up a coating to perhaps as much as an inch. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/4 32.3° (1.0° below normal) 2/5 32.0-32.8° (2/4 estimate: 31.2°-33.6°) 2/10 31.1°-34.1° (2/4 estimate: 32.8°-37.0°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 47% (2/4 estimate: 47%) The 2/3 MJO had an amplitude of 3.560. That was just above the old daily record of 3.205 from 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Next 8 days continue coasting a little above normal at 36degs., >>>3degs AN. The amount precipitation wasted on the GFS as Rain is a crime, another 4" in the next 10 days. CMC is better, but will any snow actually be on the ground in 10 days? Latest EURO went the wrong way too, pushing it's 10-Day total dump, farther north/west. The lesson here>>>>learn to ski on the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 You may be at average snowfall,but much of the region is below average. Draw a line in central nassau somewhere. Long story short, you are sadly the exception, not the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: You may be at average snowfall,but much of the region is below average. Draw a line in central nassau somewhere. Long story short, you are sadly the exception, not the rule. Whats knyc yearly avg to date, and what do they have now? how about klga? Kjfk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Whats knyc yearly avg to date, and what do they have now? how about klga? Kjfk? Everyone is above average for this time of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Whats knyc yearly avg to date, and what do they have now? how about klga? Kjfk? NYC seasonal average: 25.8"; Normal through 2/4: 13.4"; YTD: 18.9" 73% of the seasonal average JFK seasonal average: 23.8"; Normal through 2/4: 12.4"; YTD: 16.4" 69% of the seasonal average LGA seasonal average: 26.9"; Normal through 2/4: 14.2"; YTD: 16.7" 62% of the seasonal average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 40 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Whats knyc yearly avg to date, and what do they have now? how about klga? Kjfk? SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY T 11.4 1961 0.3 -0.3 MONTH TO DATE T 1.3 -1.3 SINCE OCT 1 18.9 13.4 5.5 SINCE JUL 1 18.9 13.4 5.5 kNYC is above average for the season - ignore the Feb numbers since its too early in the month ............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I think some of the frustration is that NYC hasn't had a warning level snow event since Jan 4th. So it make it feel like the snow is below normal. Even though it's not that far off from reaching the seasonal normal of 25.8. All we need is another productive period after 2/20 to get everyone that isn't already there to N or maybe AN. Since the 14-15 winter, longer gaps between storms and without snowfall on the ground has been the norm around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think some of the frustration is that NYC hasn't had a warning level snow event since Jan 4th. So it make it feel like the snow is below normal. Even though it's not that far off from reaching the seasonal normal of 25.8. All we need is another productive period after 2/20 to get everyone that isn't already there to N or maybe AN. Since the 14-15 winter, longer gaps between storms and without snowfall on the ground has been the norm around here. I agree plus we have been spoiled for the most part with so many above normal to much above normal winters the last 10 - 15 years - makes us feel like we are not getting enough snow when in reality we are on target for a normal season averaging in all the seasons well beyond the last 10 -15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I think it's safe to say that most areas in NJ are well below average snowfall season to date. Up here I am sitting at about half with about a quarter of the season left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: The big NJ snowfall winner so far this winter is Atlantic City. They are currently at the 15th snowiest winter on record with 24.5". Average for them is 16.5". South Jersey has done much better compared to long term averages than Northern NJ in the last ten years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I think the doom and gloom with respect to snowfall for those currently above average is (1) the fact that the teleconnections continue to deteriorate (below PNA and AO), creating a sense of no end in sight for this non productive period and (2) the fact that a lot of people were expecting a great winter due to the early barage of snow and the false good looks by long range modeling. I understand the frustration. At this point, other than the eps MJO plot, where is the evidence that a coastal snowy period is to return? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I think the doom and gloom with respect to snowfall for those currently above average is (1) the fact that the teleconnections continue to deteriorate (below PNA and AO), creating a sense of no end in sight for this non productive period and (2) the fact that a lot of people were expecting a great winter due to the early barage of snow and the false good looks by long range modeling. I understand the frustration. At this point, other than the eps MJO plot, where is the evidence that a coastal snowy period is to return? I think the AO forecast verifying 3-5 days from now busted by about 4-6 on the 2 week forecast from late January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think the AO forecast verifying 3-5 days from now busted by about 4-6 on the 2 week forecast from late January Basically our hopes lie solely with the EPS MJO outlook. I do not see anything else that can help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 2/2/2018 at 11:17 AM, frankdp23 said: He may have been below as i was about 5" below average last year. I'm not too far from Metuchen. Unlikely, actually, as he's <5 miles to my NE, which should be close to identical to me, whereas you're 15-20 miles west of me and a few events were definitely less for areas to my west last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 For most in the PHL-NYC contingent, I am fairly confident the largest snowfall event has not been experienced yet. I like the last week of February or first week of March for this potential. MJO+Strat lag coupled with GWO alterations and increased -AAM transport should kick in Feb 21-25. Not sure yet about specific windows, but I think the overall configuration rapidly improves in those final 8 days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 17 minutes ago, Isotherm said: For most in the PHL-NYC contingent, I am fairly confident the largest snowfall event has not been experienced yet. I like the last week of February or first week of March for this potential. MJO+Strat lag coupled with GWO alterations and increased -AAM transport should kick in Feb 21-25. Not sure yet about specific windows, but I think the overall configuration rapidly improves in those final 8 days of the month. Your knowledge astounds me. Amazing stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 The SSW is getting very late in the season and there's up to a 4-6 week lag before we see meaningful impacts, so I wouldn't get my hopes up even if the MJO speeds up any possible impacts. It can't just be colder than normal by late Feb/early March either, it has to be well BN with a strong arctic supply for us to have a chance. Best we can hope for is something like early March 2009. Chances for snow are still decent up until March 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The SSW is getting very late in the season and there's up to a 4-6 week lag before we see meaningful impacts, so I wouldn't get my hopes up even if the MJO speeds up any possible impacts. It can't just be colder than normal by late Feb/early March either, it has to be well BN with a strong arctic supply for us to have a chance. Best we can hope for is something like early March 2009. Chances for snow are still decent up until March 10. That is a bit of a misnomer. You can snow in late March/early April with a cold core upper level low overhead which brings the cold air downward while surrounding areas are above freezing. For reference, the early April Long Island snowfall a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 37degs., or 4degs. AN. Precip. down, but still only lines up with warmest temps., when it does occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Following the area’s largest rainstorm since late October, colder air covered the region. As a result, temperatures held near or below freezing across much of the NYC area and nearby suburbs during yesterday afternoon despite abundant sunshine. The stage has now been set for a storm that will likely bring accumulating snow across interior sections of the region tomorrow into Thursday. An area running across northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, central New York State into central New England appears likely to see 4” or more snow. The snowfall will likely slash Albany’s 10.3” seasonal snowfall deficit to date. A coating of snow to perhaps an inch of snow is possible in and around New York City by the time the storm heads into the Gulf of Maine and then eastern Canada. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/5 32.4° (2/5 estimate: 32.0°-32.8°; 1.0° below normal) 2/10 32.1-34.5° (2/5 estimate: 31.1°-34.1°) 2/15 34.6°-38.2° Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 46% (2/5 estimate: 47%) The 2/4 MJO had an amplitude of 3.843. The previous daily record was 3.257, which was set in 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 The answers to NYC snowfall are misleading in context of the earlier conversation with subsequent question. NYC needs another 8-10 inches (depending on location) to get to seasonal average. If the spigot shuts off tomorrow, we wont hit it. Someone posted about a lack of an epic winter. My point then and now is that most of the area needs a significant event just to get to average sesonal snowfall. In April, nobody cares that on February 4 New York City was above snowfall to date ...if the last regional snowfall was a dusting in late January. Hopefully that doesnt happen...but it is time to start framing this winter differently. We need a pattern change… Just to get to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Agree..I plow snow and it's up there with '11. Snow in march meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 ^^ 4 or 5 2" snowfalls over the next 6-7 weeks isn't a stretch at all in anything other than a winter like '11-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I'll believe it when i'm pushing it plus 2'' that time of year doesn't stick around long (sun angle) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 It's not about sticking around it's about hitting the number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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