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February Mid/Long Range Discussion


George BM

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Literally nothing showing up in the period the weeklies had deemed glorious lol...except for torchy rain..we are somehow in a shutout period

Nah, there was never a glorious look. It was a high risk/high return look with shades of Feb 14&15. We've been quickly reminded how lucky we were in 14&15 and why a -EPO/+NAO pattern usually sucks. We're getting a warmer version of 94. 

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Nah, there was never a glorious look. It was a high risk/high return look with shades of Feb 14&15. We've been quickly reminded how lucky we were in 14&15 and why a -EPO/+NAO pattern usually sucks. We're getting a warmer version of 94. 
Didn't the weeklies advertise a good cold pattern from Feb 7 to March 14 or something?
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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I spoke too soon....discuss.

 

Well, on the bright side, it is sub-240-hr and fully compliant with the "Weekend Snowstorm" rule. So there has to be a least a chance. 

Lest we forget, last year we couldn't even get anything inside the 10-day window.

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On ‎2‎/‎6‎/‎2018 at 4:36 PM, Ji said:
On ‎2‎/‎6‎/‎2018 at 4:35 PM, C.A.P.E. said:
Cranky dude seems a tad emotional, basically canceling winter.
HM is right, nothing is happening in our neck of the woods for a while. Will have to see how the strat stuff shakes out, but still a shot we get a good period towards the end of Feb.

Feb 22 to Feb 31 will money

I'm really excited about snow on Feb 30 - 31st.

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2 hours ago, Ji said:
2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:
Nah, there was never a glorious look. It was a high risk/high return look with shades of Feb 14&15. We've been quickly reminded how lucky we were in 14&15 and why a -EPO/+NAO pattern usually sucks. We're getting a warmer version of 94. 

Didn't the weeklies advertise a good cold pattern from Feb 7 to March 14 or something?

The chatter was mostly about the -epo returning. Mean temps werent particularly cold. There were hints of a -nao coming into play late month as well. From a long lead standpoint those weekly runs are mostly correct. It did look like we would be on the winning side of the gradient but that part isn't working out. Lol.

We're missing solid snow by less than 150 miles. It's one of those times where long lead guidance did pretty decent with the hemispheric pattern but we're still getting shafted with snow storms.  I figured we would at least get some mixed events that included some accum snow. Just not our year man.

 

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11 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

The chatter was mostly about the -epo returning. Mean temps werent particularly cold. There were hints of a -nao coming into play late month as well. From a long lead standpoint those weekly runs are mostly correct. It did look like we would be on the winning side of the gradient but that part isn't working out. Lol.

We're missing solid snow by less than 150 miles. It's one of those times where long lead guidance did pretty decent with the hemispheric pattern but we're still getting shafted with snow storms.  I figured we would at least get some mixed events that included some accum snow. Just not our year man.

 

On the surface it seems a bit uncanny(all the close misses) but the end result is typical Nina. Really underscores the importance of persistent, legit HL blocking in a Nina winter to counter the tendency for SE ridge and NW storm tracks, and increase odds for decent snow chances in our area.

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24 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

IDK man

I'm going by Matt Rogers' numbers on cwg, not a picture.  He updates it daily.

i think you two are discussing two different things  Matt Rogers does avg high temperature  which in all fairness is slightly skewed and doesn't represent the actual cold pattern we have been in.  Ji is sharing the MEAN avg which takes the temperature through out 24 hour period and gives you a more realistic model of what we actually experienced.

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not really seeing anything exciting in the long range for our backyards through 16 days. at best, it shows the temp anomolies at Normal. Not a blowtorch but its not cold. We are going to need a lot of luck to score this month. A February shutout is still the most likely option

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45 minutes ago, Ji said:

not really seeing anything exciting in the long range for our backyards through 16 days. at best, it shows the temp anomolies at Normal. Not a blowtorch but its not cold. We are going to need a lot of luck to score this month. A February shutout is still the most likely option

So what you’re trying to say is that the first 3”+ storm will be coming in March? Can’t wait 

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I recently found out that once a week the GEPS runs out to 32 days.  The ensemble mean qpf as snow imby is less than 0.4" over that time.  But I'm hugging the 21-day GEPS control run, because there's nothing else to hug.

PLWyqIq.png

Most of that falls on Feb. 28th.  Only 20 days away!

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1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

At this point I will just be happy for seasonal cold for the next two weeks so we don't end up with a repeat of the March flowering trees slaughter of last year where it was so warm in February that they all came out early and then arctic in March which killed the blossoms. That sucked hard.

I agree. Been two years in a row like that for my magnolia.

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