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February Mid/Long Range Discussion


George BM

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

today is February 5th. Never in my wildest dreams did i ever figure that the Feb 5-15 period would be an epic disaster based on what data looked like 10-15 days ago. Shows how much we still need to learn. I mean the entire european run today was one epic fail after another and still looked terrible at day 10 with regards to your backyards. 

Yea, the thing that puts this winter underneath other typical blah winters is the missed ops. My buddy in Ches Beach has over 10" this year. Same with my mom in Cambridge. She has more the 14" or something like that. If those events that hit to the east produced here we would be trying to break climo right now and not trying to crack 10". lol. Missing way south like Ric or NC isn't the same as missing to the east in places like Ches Beach etc. 

We've been in a non-shutout pattern most of winter. The 2 weeks of a +EPO in Jan was a true shutout period but other than that we have been right in the pocket for a typical flawed small/med event around here. Unlike the 13-15 stretch, we are struggling to get anything to break right. I'm not writing off the year yet because we've managed to pull off decent stuff in the middle of many sub par winters but I've lost interest in caring about run over run model changes. 

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46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, the thing that puts this winter underneath other typical blah winters is the missed ops. My buddy in Ches Beach has over 10" this year. Same with my mom in Cambridge. She has more the 14" or something like that. If those events that hit to the east produced here we would be trying to break climo right now and not trying to crack 10". lol. Missing way south like Ric or NC isn't the same as missing to the east in places like Ches Beach etc. 

We've been in a non-shutout pattern most of winter. The 2 weeks of a +EPO in Jan was a true shutout period but other than that we have been right in the pocket for a typical flawed small/med event around here. Unlike the 13-15 stretch, we are struggling to get anything to break right. I'm not writing off the year yet because we've managed to pull off decent stuff in the middle of many sub par winters but I've lost interest in caring about run over run model changes. 

Bob is right , the beaches are doing great, go figure. 

I think Atlantic City has 24.5 inches for the season so far. If I has that much winter could have ended two weeks ago and I would not even care.  To the East, and right on the sand, has been the place to be. 

 

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50 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

My suggestion is to plan a trip to upstate NY or northern New England during late February and spend the next 3 week tracking their weather. 

Been pretty dull up here for the most part for a while now, though we're still a bit above average for the season (a bit over 60" at ROC, most of that from late Dec/early Jan). Looks like a modest event this week and maybe another over the weekend and then additional chances so come on up!

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3 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

My suggestion is to plan a trip to upstate NY or northern New England during late February and spend the next 3 week tracking their weather. 

It's on my bucket list to spend a winter there some day. Wonder how that's like...

I have a feeling that if we are going to see a big snow this year...it would come Late Feb/early March...when most people are starting to crave spring. 

Fun fact...every winter that I have lived in the area, I've had at least one event with more than 4" of snow. (and I don't even care if the sample size is too small...)

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Weeklies are good and bad. -ao/nao weeks 3-4 for the most part but its warm pretty much coast to coast with the cold on the other side in Eurasia. That does happen so it's believable but I feel confidence at any long lead is very low right now with the strat action.  The SSW isn't voodoo this time. It will almost certainly impact the the patterns across the entire hemisphere. Won't know for sure how until it's happening. 

Even though the mean h5 on the weeklies isn't very inspiring, the control run has ridiculous blocking setting up and is very cold in the east. That outcome is on the table. I'm sure there's a cluster that favors that but the majority say the cold is going to happen on the other side of the globe. 

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:

pretty good run. Not especially cold but NAO blocking

That's pretty much what I was thinking. Get a good track with hp blocked to the north and we don't need big cold at all. We'll see how it goes. No guidance is showing winter cancel. It might be boring for another week or so but we're stuck in the rabbit hole until further notice. Lol

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's pretty much what I was thinking. Get a good track with hp blocked to the north and we don't need big cold at all. We'll see how it goes. No guidance is showing winter cancel. It might be boring for another week or so but we're stuck in the rabbit hole until further notice. Lol

the period leading up to March 2001 from what i remember was not cold but it had some great blocking. I mean we had 25 inch forecast of snow 1.5 days before the event. Turns out that the not cold part hurt but the lack of phasing hurt worse. Blizzard of 1993 was 48 degrees the day before the storm

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Been a lurker for years. We have been lucky the past 4 years in march. Anyone think too much weight is put into March being a true winter month?

it can easily go both ways. Torched or wintry. We are due for a march without much promise IMO. I would like it to happen but seems like people are putting too many chips into it. What do you think?

 

edit: accidentally quoted an old post. 

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1 minute ago, Wxdood said:

Been a lurker for years. We have been lucky the past 4 years in march. Anyone think too much weight is put into March being a true winter month?

it can easily go both ways. Torched or wintry. We are due for a march without much promise IMO. I would like it to happen but seems like people are putting too many chips into it. What do you think?

 

edit: accidentally quoted an old post. 

March nina years can be decent.

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9 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

Been a lurker for years. We have been lucky the past 4 years in march. Anyone think too much weight is put into March being a true winter month?

it can easily go both ways. Torched or wintry. We are due for a march without much promise IMO. I would like it to happen but seems like people are putting too many chips into it. What do you think?

 

edit: accidentally quoted an old post. 

We have had plenty last minute saves where we prevent complete and utter disaster winters. March 1-2 2009 was one, which dropped 6-8" of snow in the district. March 13-14 of last year was very close to saving our winter. Since we haven't have a decent -AO/-NAO period as of this winter, I'd think it would make sense for us to get a shot or two in Late Feb with the -NAO/-AO materializing, and potentially see that bleed into March. Whether they materialize will be something we have to find out once we get there. We've been pretty lucky with March snows the past couple years, with the main theme of winters being back loaded winters following shutout Decembers. 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

This is how you get a March HECS. Lol

I've been lurking for a few years now and only decided to post this year. I've always wondered...what do these acronyms stand for? Does HECS mean historic east coast snowstorm? And SECS stands for significant? Are there more and is there an order? I've always been curious about the forum's terminology. Sorry if this is off-topic

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9 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

I've been lurking for a few years now and only decided to post this year. I've always wondered...what do these acronyms stand for? Does HECS mean historic east coast snowstorm? And SECS stands for significant? Are there more and is there an order? I've always been curious about the forum's terminology. Sorry if this is off-topic

Bingo. I'm pretty sure the scale goes

SECS: Significant East Coast Snowstorm

MECS: Major East Coast Snowstorm

HECS: Historic East Coast Snowstorm

BECS: Biblical East Coast Snowstorm (the thing you see on the 240hr GFS, or what weenies would draw on pieces of paper in class to kill time)

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Just now, Cobalt said:

Bingo. I'm pretty sure the scale goes

MECS: Major East Coast Snowstorm

SECS: Severe East Coast Snowstorm

HECS: Historic East Coast Snowstorm

BECS: Biblical East Coast Snowstorm (the thing you see on the 240hr GFS, or what weenies would draw on pieces of paper in class to kill time)

SECS is lower than MECS...Signifcant East Coast Snow storm.

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1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

We have had plenty last minute saves where we prevent complete and utter disaster winters. March 1-2 2009 was one, which dropped 6-8" of snow in the district. March 13-14 of last year was very close to saving our winter. Since we haven't have a decent -AO/-NAO period as of this winter, I'd think it would make sense for us to get a shot or two in Late Feb with the -NAO/-AO materializing, and potentially see that bleed into March. Whether they materialize will be something we have to find out once we get there. We've been pretty lucky with March snows the past couple years, with the main theme of winters being back loaded winters following shutout Decembers. 

It would be anomalous if we didn't get a moderate event before the end of the season... This is why it is so shocking that there is nada in the LR.

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28 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Were due a March 2012 with 70 degrees wall to wall.

Didn't we have something to track that year in early April... Like some freak spring Snow storm? For some reason i remember that.

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Didn't we have something to track that year in early April... Like some freak spring Snow storm? For some reason i remember that.


Memory is bad but last April snow that I remember for IMBY was April 16th, 2014. Little rain to snow. Looking back at that year were tracking an April snowstorm. Check out the EURO at 240, lol. This run was on April 7th.

95b12f09d25a6e45d12b51fb26ee3a1c.jpg

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