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February Mid/Long Range Discussion


George BM

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The new CanSIPS looks better for February.  It's lost the SE ridge that had been showing for the last few months.  It's dry though.

PUuZiRg.png

For comparison, here's the latest CFS for February.  The CFS is colder (I suspect because we get more help from the PNA / EPO - someone correct me if I'm wrong), and not as dry as the CanSIPS.

WsWL57b.png

 

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10 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

At least for now it looks like Canaan will be building a nice snow pack over the 7 days. Might be heading out there end of next week.

See you there. It's about to be a tree skiing/riding fest. Past few years minus 16 after the big storm (was there Friday, Saturday Sunday for that storm) it's basically sucked with barely enough snow to be able to go all out in the trees. its about to be real good out there

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17 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

18z NAVGEM came in with a solution similar to the euro with a less amped low. I don’t have boundary layer temps simulated, but certainly looks better than GFS. 

 

5F058545-2E1B-4931-B8F6-131F8D06B4EF.png

Thickness looks like 543.  Is frozen even possible without CAD?

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1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Thanks for this, PSU. I've noticed some comments in these threads that struggle with comprehending averages -- especially averages that are not from normal distributions. To put it in high school stats language, I'd guess that a histogram of our snowfalls would look like this (skew right). IE, there are a lot of outliers on the right side of the distribution which bring the mean up over the median.  Your stats back that up.  Actually, does anyone have a histogram, or the data? Median is probably the better stat

Image result for skew right stats

When our means are fairly low... its easier to skew the mean high because 0 acts as a natural lower limit where as we can have some blockbuster years that go way over the mean thus skewing things...

The further northwest in our area you go the less skewed it is but even up here it takes a hit and the mean is skewed high by some epic winters.  My 11 year mean while I have actually lived here is 42.1" but the longer term mean I have estimated using coop data for the area (but it might be a bit low because the best coops are a bit lower in elevation and tend to get a bit less the years I have been here) is around 39".  But doing the same data manipulation and dumping the 8 best years in the last 30 still gives a mean of 23.6".  That is more indicative of what to expect up here in a typical (non epic) winter.  The one difference is the odds of a total crap dud winter become lower as you go NW in our region.  In the last 30 years there has only been 4 years with less than 17" here.  So If I take out the top 8 and bottom 4, the vast majority of winters fall between 17-38".  That range is what a "normal" winter up here is.  For DC its harder to do that because they have so many single digit years.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When our means are fairly low... its easier to skew the mean high because 0 acts as a natural lower limit where as we can have some blockbuster years that go way over the mean thus skewing things...

The further northwest in our area you go the less skewed it is but even up here it takes a hit and the mean is skewed high by some epic winters.  My 11 year mean while I have actually lived here is 42.1" but the longer term mean I have estimated using coop data for the area (but it might be a bit low because the best coops are a bit lower in elevation and tend to get a bit less the years I have been here) is around 39".  But doing the same data manipulation and dumping the 8 best years in the last 30 still gives a mean of 23.6".  That is more indicative of what to expect up here in a typical (non epic) winter.  The one difference is the odds of a total crap dud winter become lower as you go NW in our region.  In the last 30 years there has only been 4 years with less than 17" here.  So If I take out the top 8 and bottom 4, the vast majority of winters fall between 17-38".  That range is what a "normal" winter up here is.  For DC its harder to do that because they have so many single digit years.  

PSU, you're exactly right. Can't have less than 0". 

OK so I like charts.  So I made one. I downloaded the data from here: http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf.  That dataset goes way back to 1888, and measurement locations changed; infer what you want about climate, and the meaning of the differing measurement locations. Any mistakes are my own... I can upload the XLS if anyone wants it. 

 

image.png.f1b8ca51501053b7b22d5e45bb764c74.png

also, sorry if someone has made this before or if it's easily available somewhere else :-D

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2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

PSU, you're exactly right. Can't have less than 0". 

OK so I like charts.  So I made one. I downloaded the data from here: http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf.  That dataset goes way back to 1888, and measurement locations changed; infer what you want about climate, and the meaning of the differing measurement locations. Any mistakes are my own... I can upload the XLS if anyone wants it. 

 

image.png.f1b8ca51501053b7b22d5e45bb764c74.png

excellent chart... 9-12 is the most common number... shows how some expectations are out of line with what a likely or normal winter is... and the average is a bad indicator of what normal is also.  

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm just here to see the new way the GFS will screw us.  Can it go even farther west?

Conversational snow and a trend away from the weird west track. I think the euro/icon track will be closer to reality than the gfs. Good to see precip move through before 18z sun too. 

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I really think the gfs is putting too much emphasis on the northern low. Might be an ugly run but my money is on a trend towards a dominant southern low. Moved waa precip in faster. 

GGEM just did the same thing... my gut says its right.  Everything has trended away from focusing on the southern stream moisture/energy and trends towards a northern stream dominant system going to our north once inside 6 days...this is trending that way at exactly the time all the others did.  Its got more moisture then those but the general idea and storm evolution is trending the same way they all did.  It fits...unfortunately.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GGEM just did the same thing... my gut says its right.  Everything has trended away from focusing on the southern stream moisture/energy and trends towards a northern stream dominant system going to our north once inside 6 days...this is trending that way at exactly the time all the others did.  Its got more moisture then those but the general idea and storm evolution is trending the same way they all did.  It fits...unfortunately.  

We'll see. The euro has a northern wave too but it washes out in favor of a stronger southern piece. Cmc washes out the northern wave as well but doesn't have as strong of a southern wave. Gfs makes the northern totally dominant. I might go down with the ship but I don't think that's how it will go in the end. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We'll see. The euro has a northern wave too but it washes out in favor of a stronger southern piece. Cmc washes out the northern wave as well but doesn't have as strong of a southern wave. Gfs makes the northern totally dominant. I might go down with the ship but I don't think that's how it will go in the end. 

Maybe the Euro will regain its crown this time?:yikes:

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Ultimatey i don't care much about the northern and southern dominance as long as precip moves in around 12z Sun. Either way I flip to rain. Western folks want the southern solution for sure. Looks like the cmc drops some snow in my yard before the flip. That's all I'm looking for. Don't care how it happens. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Ultimatey i don't care much about the northern and southern dominance as long as precip moves in around 12z Sun. Either way I flip to rain. Western folks want the southern solution for sure. Looks like the cmc drops some snow in my yard before the flip. That's all I'm looking for. Don't care how it happens. 

This is an odd scenario where DC can see more snow than NYC with the same system.  It doesn’t occur often in cases outside of a southern slider but can occur with a well timed early AM WAA push while the same push occurs late in the day up here or a weak clipper or SWFE that pulses up at the right time.  I know the only event of the 01-02 winter destroyed some of the DC Metro with 5-8 inches while we saw only 1-2 up here from it  

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