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February Mid/Long Range Discussion


George BM

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One big  problem we have had all winter is a +NAO.  It went positive around Dec 1st and doesn’t look to go negative anytime soon either. I’m learning here so cannot  explain why it is staying positive for as long as it has, certainly seems like a unusually long duration.  We need more blocking in this new pattern.  MJO phases 8/1 may help towards the end of Feb into March hopefully.  

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 Never been excited enough about the Friday or Sunday-Monday events to even write about them.  Too flawed.   Even if you look at the  ensemble low plot the ones east of the baseline plot don't get much precip to us and still are kind of warm and the ones west of that line are I95 rain tracks.  The Euro sure has that look but even the better track GFS never really gets cold enough and with slight changes would end up being even warmer. 

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8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

One big  problem we have had all winter is a +NAO.  It went positive around Dec 1st and doesn’t look to go negative anytime soon either. I’m learning here so cannot  explain why it is staying positive for as long as it has, certainly seems like a unusually long duration.  We need more blocking in this new pattern.  MJO phases 8/1 may help towards the end of Feb into March hopefully.  

I think it's the sst in the North Atlantic. 

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36 minutes ago, mappy said:

Ava doesn't use either. She may mention the RPM in passing, but she tends to stick to the GFS and Euro and does a pretty damn good job at laying out all the possibilities. Tommy T and Tony Pann are the ones who tend to forecast based on those out there models that never seem to be right. 

But its cool. To each their own. No need to banter this thread up anymore with personal preferences on watching the news. 

i'll only post once here so not to clutter up the thread, but i was catching up on the 2016 youtube vids (because that's what i do when our winters are lame lol) and saw one of her pre-storm forecasts and was thinking to myself, "she's really good".  haven't seen any other reporting from her, but i thought she was spot on and that model they used showed the bmore to dc quasi/light dryslot period during the storm almost perfectly.

that said, i definitely take longterm tv forecasts with a grain of salt, but it's also easy to forget that most of the population doesn't have an interest in uber analysis for storms (for us it's a hobby).

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
2 hours ago, Ji said:
the GFS has a pretty good track and its still mostly rain. This one may be over already and I am not seeing anything exciting down the road

Not sure where we are headed now after next week. The cant fail signal is slowly being replaced with mixed signals, some positive (Greenland Blocking/-ao?) and some negative (flatter overall flow across country/MJO propogating from phase 7 *maybe* getting into 8 before moving into the COD). Could go either way imo. Still like the Feb 10-16 period for something more substantial. If we fail there, well, ummm, there's always the PD holiday to look forward to for the dreamers ;-)

This was never a "cant fail" period. Not sure that ever exists around here. This new pattern has always looked flawed(most are, esp in a Nina). But EPO driven with little to no help in the AO/NAO domains is fraught with "risks" for this region. Another issue is the ridge/trough axis is not ideal, and now it looks like we may evolve towards some disruption in the -EPO and get a flatter PNA ridge, even as the axis shifts eastward. We seem to be at a bit of a crossroads with how the pattern evolves from here. I find it interesting regardless. Maybe we will be saved by the emergence of some blocking up top.

 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Peter Mullinax has a very good twitter thread about the Sun-Mon storm.  Here's the first:

 

He's one of my good friends from Millersville! He's definitely worth a follow. Him and I pick each others brains on storms at times. He's a great guy. Huge twitter user. My job is too busy for me to get too much into it. 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

ha! i replied to him as well asking IMBY questions like a weenie ;) 

Those CIPS analogs look pretty good.  Basically +/- 50% chance of 4"+ across most of the subforum from DC and points north.  Snow-to-rain is how I remember lots of storms as a kid, but we haven't had many of those lately.  Maybe we return to that.  I'm not going to complain too much if 2-3" falls and then it gets washed away. It's how we roll and it would get me to double-digits for the season.   

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30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Peter Mullinax has a very good twitter thread about the Sun-Mon storm.  Here's the first:

 

If it goes as modeled on the GFS, it would be a gut punch like no other.   All winter, when it's cold..we'd get paltry precip. Now we have precip by the boatload and most of it would be rain.  It would be a spectacular screwing this year. 

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41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think it's the sst in the North Atlantic. 

I think it's both, especially with a La Niña.

Honestly, it's a pretty climo winter thus far for a Niña and predominantly positive NAO. Even with more +PNA than -PNA, the lack of a southern stream energy (Niña) along with the absence of blocking makes it awfully tough for this area to score with snow of any significance (i.e. warning criteria).

The cold/dry and warm/wet scenario will play out more often than not, much to our chagrin, because (as we're seeing) cashing in on a +PNA with a -NAO (or an NAO in transition), let alone those teleconnections coupled with the occasional Niño (once every 3-5 years), is obviously more infrequent than otherwise. Once in a while we do get lucky, especially late (Feb into March). 

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9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If it goes as modeled on the GFS, it would be a gut punch like no other.   All winter, when it's cold..we'd get paltry precip. Now we have precip by the boatload and most of it would be rain.  It would be a spectacular screwing this year. 

"Give me the precip and I will worry about the cold air later". :yikes:

I rather liked the cold and dry pattern...wasn't "so dry" here. Cold and snow, always a conundrum in our region lol.

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16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If it goes as modeled on the GFS, it would be a gut punch like no other.   All winter, when it's cold..we'd get paltry precip. Now we have precip by the boatload and most of it would be rain.  It would be a spectacular screwing this year. 

Extremely painful, yet not even close to shocking.  Maybe next Wednesday/Thursday will pan out...:unsure:

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Time to root for a less amped solution. It's probably that simple. 

yup.  We just dont have the latitude to get away with an amped system. 

Weve been saying it all year...nickels n dimes..... 

That isnt just something to say in hopes of getting lucky, thats based on base state were in, and reasonable expectations theirin.  

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Hasn't this winter been favoring less amped solutions?

It has but it's also been favoring ways for us to not do well with snowfall. lol. We're right in the window where things have been de-amping today and tomorrow. We'll see how it goes...

 

There's a window where the column is good. Getting precip in quicker is another way but that falls on the less likely side of things that can go right. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It has but it's also been favoring ways for us to not do well with snowfall. lol. We're right in the window where things have been de-amping today and tomorrow. We'll see how it goes...

 

There's a window where the column is good. Getting precip in quicker is another way but that falls on the less likely side of things that can go right. 

Yep. 6 hours earlier would make a huge difference  7 am Sunday morning would be much better than the afternoon start time the GFS is advertising. 

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Just now, Ji said:
20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Time to root for a less amped solution. It's probably that simple. 

Yes...paltry precip is fun

SSTs in the bay are in upper 30s last check...sounds silly to mention but better than this same set up in Dec when they were 10-15 degrees warmer...grabbing for straws

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14 minutes ago, Ji said:
33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Time to root for a less amped solution. It's probably that simple. 

Yes...paltry precip is fun

A Rage Against the Machine song comes to mind...know your enemy. 

It was pretty obvious yesterday that a big precip hit = less chances of snow. Is what it is. We deal with it and move on. Or melt down. One or the other. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's a jump model but one thing I've heard mentioned more than once is that it does well with temps. Since we're below freezing @ 18z on Sunday...I'll hug that no problem. 

it is a very stubborn model lol...it held on to that Friday solution for a long time before it caved

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