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February Mid/Long Range Discussion

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Ji said:

so it looks like we are going to be 0-3

Today,Friday and Sunday. Add that to the 0-3 in January and the 1-3 for december....we are like 1-9. Maybe we will get the first pick the draft

Today wasn't a bust for everyone. 

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

I've felt for a while that the upcoming pattern really favor's areas north and west of the cities with some elevation. This really could be epic for those areas. 

where can i buy the ticket to board this train? 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I can extrapolate some snow from this panel
 

Sunday is our best chance since Dec 8. My feeling is worst case scenario is inch

I tend to agree. The stream interaction makes it hard to know how to hedge. We have the lead northern stream wave that could drop some WAA snow. That shortwave either sets the stage or ruins the run up from the south. The big runs from the GFS/CMC were partial phases. Kinda messy but it was still the 2 streams working together. If they stay completely separate and we have to rely 100% on the southern wave then it gets harder because the shield will be much smaller (and the risk of rain goes up). The GFS was a move in that direction but wasn't all that much different in the upper levels. 

I heard people call this setup "simple" or "classic" earlier. I kinda disagree in some ways. If anything it's a bit complicated. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

My thoughts right now...

I have no problem with the 12z op runs of the GGEM and GFS.  Both show exactly what we expected, fast NS dominant flow with systems running the boundary every 1-2 days and multiple chances.  The boundary is still where we want it, just south of us most of the time.  The waves are shotgun scattered around us and will continue to be until things get within 72 hours.  But nothing radically shifted...specific threats will go from hits to near misses probably every run with this pattern.  No one threat is high probability, we are playing the odds that if we get 5 or 6 chances and each one has a 1/3 chance of a hit that at least one should be a hit.  Thats the game.  This is also NOT a HECS pattern.  Forget that, get it out of your head if your dreaming of a 12" plus type thing.  Flukes can always happen but your setting yourself up for disappointment rooting for something so rare in this type of pattern.  What is realistic is a 2-4 or 3-6" type hit.  Even a 6-10" type thing isnt crazy but would require some luck to get something to amp just enough without shifting the boundary to our north.  But we have had such examples...several in 2014, the feb and march storms in 2015.  And frankly the February storm last year that missed us just to the north was exactly that kind of thing, the fact that it ended up 50 miles north of us was just bad luck, but thats the type of thing we need just get lucky and have it end up on top of us.  Thats the type of thing that works in a nina pattern without blocking.  Just about all the examples of a bigger storm in a nina had NAO help to go along, so unless we see the NAO go negative we are rooting for progressive waves and to get lucky and have one line us up in its sights.  

The biggest problem I see is getting these waves to slow down enough to allow something to amplify enough when the cold is in place.  There is a reason we end up "in between" a lot in a nina.  Northern stream is fast and flying by to our north with limited digging, and the southern stream is weak and thus unlikely to phase with the fast northern stream instead acting as an inhibitor and keeping stj systems to our south.  Were south of the NS and north of she STJ.  Stuck in between.  The snowfall anomaly map for a nina shows this clearly with higher snowfall proportionally to our north and south.  In a Nina NC and NY is more likely to end up above average snowfall then we are.  And what really hurts is if we filter out the -NAO ninas that gets even worse.  I said it back in October, that EVERY above average snowfall year with a nina was with a -NAO.  That if we didn't get NAO help this year was going to fall into the "have to fight for every inch" category and well...here we are.  

But there is a silver lining.  Many nina's without -nao help also dont get EPO or AO help and those are the disasters.  We are getting help from those areas, mostly EPO but the AO isnt hostile and at times has been favorable.  So I am hopeful that given enough opportunities that WILL come in this pattern that we should avoid the fate of a total fail that some nina's end up.  Many nina's eventually have a hit or two and end up just a normal "meh" winter for our area.  That is what I am kind of expecting when its all over, that we score 1 or 2 decent snowfalls here and it just goes down and our typical kinda mediocre winter.  That isnt based just on blind hope, there is reason to think the same kind of pattern would end better in February.  The boundary should be more juiced in general as we get later in the year.  The wavelengths will shorten which could allow slightly more buckling and with a -EPO we dont need OR WANT much just enough.  Plus all the guidance centers the cold more to our north this go around which is what we want in a -EPO pattern. All those are real not just my weenie imagination.  It doesn't mean we will get snow but it certainly means we could and there is hope that things dont continue to fail the rest of the way.  

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jviper

jviper

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Get 2. Put it on my tab.....

;)  

yeah we all didn’t win today. Barely a trace at my house, but odds favor all of us getting into something in the next couple weeks. 

There used to be a bus but I think the battery died and I'm sure its out of gas. Randy had the keys last.

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Thanks guys. Frd, I do see some enhanced wave-2 activity over the next couple of weeks as wave-1 fades, but I think much of this is MJO contingent, and as such, believe the GFS based guidance is too aggressive on the w-2 associated split activity for mid month. There will be a fairly potent strengthening of the SPV in the coming 10-12 days which should downwell into the NAO/AO domains in the form of a strongly positive NAO and neutral/slightly positive AO. Where we progress from there is a bit indeterminate, but right now, I do not see any indication of a minor or major SSW event through February 15th-18th. Truthfully, we will soon be reaching the period at which stratospheric warming activity is much less correlated to deep NAM reversals, if we do not see one within the next few weeks or so.

Will monitor wave-2 over the next couple weeks. But notice the ECMWF MJO has been correcting toward a phase 7/8 brick wall w/ transition incoherent/de-amplified , with numerous members into the COD or even remaining near phase 7. The convection will surely dissipate, but I had previously thought that the u-div signal could persist into 8-1. However, if we attempt to re-circulate/remain stagnant near p7, the February pattern could materially shift from prior expectations. Notice on recent EPS runs, the cold is really locked up in Canada w/ a contemporaneous adjustment westward of the meridional ridge near the West Coast. The more positive that the AO corrects as a function of the SPV status, and as the ridge axis responds to the tropical forcing remaining further west, that will tend to warm the East Coast.

Much to watch over the next couple weeks.

 

Thanks Isotherm. I really hope we can get that MJO continuing to advance. If it does not, well a lot of mets will be dissapointed because there are a few high profile ones who are almost positive it gets to phase 8 and 1, with high amplitude as well I might add.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS warming up to a decent event sun-mon. The best run yet but still a lot of spread and too many non-events or rain to feel really good about our prospects. A trend in the right direction for sure though. 

I know people keep bringing up the late December model head fake and that was pretty bad. But this has now gone way past that. We're now up to like 4 days of straight weenie runs overall of the gefs and EPS. Not weenie about any one threat but as a whole at the prospects for snow in the next 2 weeks. If this does all fail. If every wave manages to go north south or evaporate...and late feb comes and we're watching the pattern break down with nothing but trace events to show for it...then a total epic historic melt down is warranted and I will lead the charge. 

All I'm saying is let's let it play out first. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, frd said:

Thanks Isotherm. I really hope we can get that MJO continuing to advance. If it does not, well a lot of mets will be dissapointed because there are a few high profile ones who are almost positive it gets to phase 8 and 1, with high amplitude as well I might add.  

Anyone in this field who is almost sure of anything beyond day 10 is a snake oil salesman. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know people keep bringing up the late December model head fake and that was pretty bad. But this has now gone way past that. We're now up to like 4 days of straight weenie runs overall of the gefs and EPS. Not weenie about any one threat but as a whole at the prospects for snow in the next 2 weeks. If this does all fail. If every wave manages to go north south or evaporate...and late feb comes and we're watching the pattern break down with nothing but trace events to show for it...then a total epic historic melt down is warranted and I will lead the charge. 

All I'm saying is let's let it play out first. 

If we aren't going to get a -NAO then what we are seeing over the next 2 weeks is the next best thing honestly. 

Euro manages to flip to some light snow thurs night now. Came in colder in general but backed off on QPF. It's still not a total write off. Won't be a big deal or anything but would be nice to squeeze out "something". lol

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If we aren't going to get a -NAO then what we are seeing over the next 2 weeks is the next best thing honestly. 

Euro manages to flip to some light snow thurs night now. Came in colder in general but backed off on QPF. It's still not a total write off. Won't be a big deal or anything but would be nice to squeeze out "something". lol

Good point. Absent any nao help (which is ideal of course) this look is probably the next best way to try to get snow. 

I haven't given up on some snow this week but I do think the idea of anything significant is dead. But a changeover and 1-2" isn't. 

One uber long range thought. I agree the mjo gets too much play. It's a factor not the factor. But it can tip the scales at times. So it might not be a coincidence that the euro weeklies lost the better pattern into early march as it also lost the mjo wave. But a 3-4 week mjo forecast is tenuous at best. So that idea could pop back all of a sudden.  Just thinking out loud here. 

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
Just now, psuhoffman said:

One uber long range thought. I agree the mjo gets too much play. It's a factor not the factor. But it can tip the scales at times. So it might not be a coincidence that the euro weeklies lost the better pattern into early march as it also lost the mjo wave. But a 3-4 week mjo forecast is tenuous at best. So that idea could pop back all of a sudden.  Just thinking out loud here. 

And didn't we discuss a week ago or so how there's a known model bias to weaken MJO waves too early when they start in phases 5/6 in January?  

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

And didn't we discuss a week ago or so how there's a known model bias to weaken MJO waves too early when they start in phases 5/6 in January?  

DT mentioned a specific model that according to him has a decent skill at MJO forecasts,  and using that model it is forecasting phase 8 and 1 and rather cold weather late month. 

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