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Kmlwx

2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

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No talk about the threat for tomorrow afternoon?  AFD mentions threat for some severe with damaging winds main threat but also the potential for a few tornadoes 

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5 hours ago, yoda said:

No talk about the threat for tomorrow afternoon?  AFD mentions threat for some severe with damaging winds main threat but also the potential for a few tornadoes 

      The problem is that the hi-res guidance is now in good agreement that the line clears most of the area by midday, and there is limited opportunity for the atmosphere to destabilize in advance, especially from DC and points north.    Chances are better for southern MD and points further east and south, where guidance shows either more warm advection ahead of the line or a later arrival of storms allowing more heating to occur.       That said, shear in the local area will be strong, so if instability ends up larger than currently progged, we could certainly have a greater threat, including TORs.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/05/there-was-no-warning-heres-how-two-damaging-tornadoes-one-deadly-hit-maryland-friday-night/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f2f47a4faf5c

I think this event- the Friday night tornadoes- is going to hold up years from now as one of the most important weather stories of the decade for our region, especially with the lack of tornado warnings. It's been a big deal for a long time now to have fatalities fall outside a tornado warning anywhere in the country. (I get that this news has just been drowned out by everything else that's going on.)

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4 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/05/there-was-no-warning-heres-how-two-damaging-tornadoes-one-deadly-hit-maryland-friday-night/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f2f47a4faf5c

I think this event- the Friday night tornadoes- is going to hold up years from now as one of the most important weather stories of the decade for our region, especially with the lack of tornado warnings. It's been a big deal for a long time now to have fatalities fall outside a tornado warning anywhere in the country. (I get that this news has just been drowned out by everything else that's going on.)

There was one in Bel Air too

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3 hours ago, high risk said:

      The problem is that the hi-res guidance is now in good agreement that the line clears most of the area by midday, and there is limited opportunity for the atmosphere to destabilize in advance, especially from DC and points north.    Chances are better for southern MD and points further east and south, where guidance shows either more warm advection ahead of the line or a later arrival of storms allowing more heating to occur.       That said, shear in the local area will be strong, so if instability ends up larger than currently progged, we could certainly have a greater threat, including TORs.

 

LWX must think its going to slow down a lil bit per the HWO... 10am to 4pm for Blue Ridge to I-95... noon to 6pm for I95 and east per the latest updated HWO:

Quote
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
733 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-061000-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
733 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in
central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of
Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of dense fog are possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes are possible Tuesday afternoon along and east of
Interstate 95. The main risk is between noon and 6 PM.

A Gale Warning may be needed for the waters Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday.

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No severe here today. Too much rain and the line came through too early for us. We have gotten more rain today than I expected though.

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