2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

[high risk]

reports of significant damage in Mt Airy.      New tornado warning in southern MD.

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

That's alright

Seems LWX missed an obvious TW though reading the HM/ORH tweet posted above

No doubt about it. And for several minutes, it had a TDS. 

[yoda]

Out looked on Day 4 for severe for SPC... mentions risk for a few tornadoes and damaging winds potential 

[yoda]

No talk about the threat for tomorrow afternoon?  AFD mentions threat for some severe with damaging winds main threat but also the potential for a few tornadoes 

[high risk]

5 hours ago, yoda said:

No talk about the threat for tomorrow afternoon?  AFD mentions threat for some severe with damaging winds main threat but also the potential for a few tornadoes 

      The problem is that the hi-res guidance is now in good agreement that the line clears most of the area by midday, and there is limited opportunity for the atmosphere to destabilize in advance, especially from DC and points north.    Chances are better for southern MD and points further east and south, where guidance shows either more warm advection ahead of the line or a later arrival of storms allowing more heating to occur.       That said, shear in the local area will be strong, so if instability ends up larger than currently progged, we could certainly have a greater threat, including TORs.

[gymengineer]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/05/there-was-no-warning-heres-how-two-damaging-tornadoes-one-deadly-hit-maryland-friday-night/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f2f47a4faf5c

I think this event- the Friday night tornadoes- is going to hold up years from now as one of the most important weather stories of the decade for our region, especially with the lack of tornado warnings. It's been a big deal for a long time now to have fatalities fall outside a tornado warning anywhere in the country. (I get that this news has just been drowned out by everything else that's going on.)

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

4 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/05/there-was-no-warning-heres-how-two-damaging-tornadoes-one-deadly-hit-maryland-friday-night/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f2f47a4faf5c

I think this event- the Friday night tornadoes- is going to hold up years from now as one of the most important weather stories of the decade for our region, especially with the lack of tornado warnings. It's been a big deal for a long time now to have fatalities fall outside a tornado warning anywhere in the country. (I get that this news has just been drowned out by everything else that's going on.)

There was one in Bel Air too

[yoda]

3 hours ago, high risk said:

      The problem is that the hi-res guidance is now in good agreement that the line clears most of the area by midday, and there is limited opportunity for the atmosphere to destabilize in advance, especially from DC and points north.    Chances are better for southern MD and points further east and south, where guidance shows either more warm advection ahead of the line or a later arrival of storms allowing more heating to occur.       That said, shear in the local area will be strong, so if instability ends up larger than currently progged, we could certainly have a greater threat, including TORs.

 

LWX must think its going to slow down a lil bit per the HWO... 10am to 4pm for Blue Ridge to I-95... noon to 6pm for I95 and east per the latest updated HWO:

Quote

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
733 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-061000-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-
733 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in
central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of
Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of dense fog are possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes are possible Tuesday afternoon along and east of
Interstate 95. The main risk is between noon and 6 PM.

A Gale Warning may be needed for the waters Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Look how far west the line is, like I've been saying a -PNA pattern is unfolding

[North Balti Zen]

 

Where do honey badger storms fall on the severe scale?

[osfan24]

No severe here today. Too much rain and the line came through too early for us. We have gotten more rain today than I expected though.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

If New York City is getting storms tomorrow, then you can bet we are getting them. That's just the way it works. SE ridge has been overperforming so.. 

[yoda]

One last hurrah of a storm or isolated severe for the year?

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1022 AM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

{snip}

For Friday, lingering low level cold air is a concern, primarily
west of the Blue Ridge, where advance precipitation may arrive
first before warming has taken place. This keeps the threat of
freezing rain in the forecast, though latest guidance is a bit
slower in bringing precip into our region, potentially lessening
the threat. By Friday evening, the entire forecast area will
likely have gotten wet, but the heaviest rain looks to hold off
until later Friday night perhaps into early Saturday, when a
very strong low level jet brings plenty of tropical moisture
northwestward into our region. Forcing aloft is strong as the
system becomes neutral to perhaps negatively tilted, so expect a
good round of rain, potentially quite heavy. Besides potentially
cracking the annual rainfall record at DCA, this could result in
a flood risk, especially in central VA where significant snow
fell Sunday. In addition, there might be some limited low level
instability, and shear will be quite high, so there may even be
a modest severe weather risk. With the strong southerly flow,
temperatures likely warm into the 50s, perhaps even the 60s at
some point, particularly east of I-95.