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2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion


Kmlwx
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1630 SPC OTLK

 ...Mid-Atlantic Region...
   More extensive cloud cover over Pennsylvania and northern West
   Virginia with fewer cloud to the south is creating a differential
   heating zone along the southern edge of the thicker clouds. 
   Stronger heating to the south will enhance destabilization in
   advance of storms beginning to develop over southern West Virginia
   at this time.  VAD winds at RLX and LWX exhibit westerly winds of
   30-40 kt above 4 km which will provide sufficient shear to support
   organized multi-cell storms and possibly an isolated supercell or
   two.  Storms are expected to develop eastward this afternoon with
   potential for localized damaging wind gusts although isolated hail
   will also be possible with stronger storms. 

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mcd0490.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0490
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1252 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

   Areas affected...Northeastern Virginia...southern Maryland...and the
   District of Columbia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 221752Z - 221945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts will be possible with stronger storms
   this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A relatively cloud-free area on visible satellite
   imagery has been persistent throughout the morning into early
   afternoon. This has allowed surface temperatures to rise into the
   mid- to upper-70s. With ample surface moisture -- dewpoints
   generally in the mid- to upper-60s -- MLCAPE values are currently
   near 1000 J/kg. With time, continued surface heating should further
   destabilize the area. Shear values are relatively modest with values
   between 25-30 kts; however, particularly in areas that receive the
   most insolation, low-level lapse rates may support damaging wind
   gusts. Visible satellite imagery indicates weak convection occurring
   to the west of the discussion area. These storms should intensify as
   they move into a move favorable environment east of the
   Appalachians.

   ..Wendt/Elliott/Weiss.. 05/22/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
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SEL6

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 116
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   230 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Central and Southern Maryland
     Northern and Central Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
     900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Storms moving eastward off the Blue Ridge Mountains are
   expected to intensify as they progress eastward with potential to
   produce primarily damaging wind gusts and isolated hail.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west southwest
   of Richmond VA to 25 miles northwest of Washington DC. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 115...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   27020.

 

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
314 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southern Madison County in northwestern Virginia...
  The City of Charlottesville in central Virginia...
  Southwestern Orange County in central Virginia...
  Southeastern Rockingham County in western Virginia...
  Albemarle County in central Virginia...
  Greene County in central Virginia...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 314 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 8 miles west of Stanardsville to Free Union to near
  Crozet, moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Charlottesville, Madison, Crozet, Stanardsville, Free Union,
  Campbell, Westmoreland, Hollymead, Elkton, Gordonsville,
  Ruckersville, Ivy, Scottsville, North Garden, Eheart, Oakpark,
  Barboursville, Yancey Mills, Stony Point and Montpelier Station.
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
325 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Montgomery County in central Maryland...
  Southern Frederick County in north central Maryland...
  East central Loudoun County in northern Virginia...
  Northeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia...

* Until 415 PM EDT.

* At 325 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Poolesville,
  moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Germantown, Rockville, Bethesda, Gaithersburg, Olney, Lansdowne,
  Lowes Island, Pimmit Hills, Poolesville, American Legion Bridge,
  Mclean, Aspen Hill, Potomac, North Bethesda, Montgomery Village,
  North Potomac, Tysons Corner, Redland, Great Falls and Countryside.
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
332 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

VAC003-079-113-137-540-222000-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-180522T2000Z/
Madison VA-City of Charlottesville VA-Orange VA-Albemarle VA-
Greene VA-
332 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN MADISON...SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE...CENTRAL ALBEMARLE AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...

At 331 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Stanardsville to near Charlottesville to 8 miles south
of Crozet, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Free Union, Campbell, Westmoreland,
Hollymead, Gordonsville, Ruckersville, Ivy, Scottsville, Quinque,
North Garden, Eheart, Lydia, Oakpark, Barboursville, Stony Point,
Flordon, Montpelier Station and Newtown.
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