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2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion


Kmlwx
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1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

Relevant to the discussion in here maybe on how the latest Ellicott City flood happened etc. - take from this what you will:

https://www.google.com/amp/www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/bs-md-ellicott-city-flooding-timeline-20180530-story,amp.html

~30 min lead time on the flash flood warning...nice

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yesterday's storm was definitely electrical here.  pretty good storm overall.  not much wind, though.  interested to see how the weekend plays out.  nam is hit/miss with the next wave this evening, spotty tomorrow, and then overnight saturday thru sunday looks like a washout.

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 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 AM CDT Mon Jun 04 2018

[...]

   By D5/Friday, the eastward progression of the shortwave trough
   should spread some severe potential towards the upper Midwest.
   However, deterministic/ensemble guidance indicate much greater
   spatial uncertainty in this potential, likely due to differences in
   the amplitude of the ridge, as well as complex influences from
   convection the night prior. This uncertainty only continues to grow
   beyond D5/Friday, such that no probabilities can be introduced at
   this time, despite some severe potential appearing possible from the
   Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic through the upcoming weekend.

   ..Picca.. 06/04/2018

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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Wed Jun 06 2018

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   While at least some severe thunderstorms will be possible daily, low
   predictability within an early summer-type regime precludes any
   15-percent outlook areas for organized severe thunderstorms. A
   semi-amplified belt of relatively strong westerlies will remain over
   the northern tier of the CONUS to the north of semi-persistent upper
   ridging over the majority of the southern CONUS through Days 4-8. 

   An appreciable upper trough will likely overspread the northern
   Rockies this weekend. While a relatively moist air mass will exist
   across the northern Plains ahead of this system, uncertainties
   continue regarding the overall scope of the severe risk across the
   northern Plains given the expected degree of mid-level capping.
   Elsewhere, isolated severe thunderstorms may also be possible this
   weekend generally along the frontal zone extending eastward into the
   Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States.

   ..Guyer.. 06/06/2018

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6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

That NAM run would seem to indicate the battleground between good action and boring will be the Potomac River. It's the NAM at range, though. 

True... and unfortunately will change -- but I was like woah lol.  Must be like a supercell complex moving through to have those type of crazy parameters.  I haven't seen those kind of parameters around here... maybe like once or twice?  

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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

True... and unfortunately will change -- but I was like woah lol.  Must be like a supercell complex moving through to have those type of crazy parameters.  I haven't seen those kind of parameters around here... maybe like once or twice?  

We've seen it on model soundings a few times I'm sure. 

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4 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah HRRR is very impressive this evening and then again overnight into tomorrow morning

latest hrrr still likes overnight.  might be one of those lines of showers that wake people up because of torrents as opposed to thunder.  

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