WEATHER53 Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 That is still a well consolidate slow moving ball way out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 1 hour ago, Amped said: GFS looks bizarre Saturday night. It drops some sort of deathband down from the northeast. We've been doing the backdoor deathband pretty good recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Anyone mind posting current ffg for the area? I never know where to find it... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 MRGL risk for tomorrow afternoon from SPC 1730 Day 2 OTLK... chance of damaging wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 pretty impressive bow echo out in Indiana right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 44 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Anyone mind posting current ffg for the area? I never know where to find it... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk https://www.weather.gov/marfc/Flash_Flood_Headwater_Guidance I dont think that's the one I have seen posted before on here though... anybody else got a better graphic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Interesting little low topped cell just west of Kearneysville, WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Interesting little low topped cell just west of Kearneysville, WV. Any rotation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Any rotation? It tried for about 3 frames then fell apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea, there is a weak relationship between flash flooding and a few kidney beans trying to spin during these set ups. Wait, really? Just the connection to tropical remnant spinups or something different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 4 minutes ago, Tater Tot said: Wait, really? Just the connection to tropical remnant spinups or something different? High dew events where the winds are perpendicular to the warm front will cause a few weak skinnies to try a pop. If things intersect properly the terrain can aid the cell a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Looks like @EastCoast NPZ may be getting rain finally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like @EastCoast NPZ may be getting rain finally. We are. But only got clipped by the first storm. 3 to 4 minute shower. Better chance is just south if it holds together over the next 5 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: We are. But only got clipped by the first storm. 3 to 4 minute shower. Better chance is just south if it holds together over the next 5 miles or so. That line is moving east... you will get some more shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 That cell embedded in the line near Martinsburg might get a SVR soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 FWIW - HRRR coming in much wetter for this evening/tonight. Again, totals are completely dependent on where cells go, but its more widespread vs this morning when it was very hit/miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That cell embedded in the line near Martinsburg might get a SVR soon. Probably should... small bow between MRB and Inwood Another small bow between Stephen's City and Winchester as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0243 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 228 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018 AREAS AFFECTED......EASTERN WV TO NORTHERN VA AND THE DC TO BALTIMORE METRO... CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 311827Z - 010027Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN WV AND MD/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING SO PATCHES OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING. DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS AND SATELLITE HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EASTERN WV AND WESTERN MD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND CENTRAL MD INTO THE WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE CORRIDOR EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH IMPRESSIVE MID 70S DEWPOINTS FURTHER EAST SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ...AIDED BY LIFT CREATED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAXIMA AND A WARM FRONT CROSSING NORTHERN VA/MD. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM DULLES VA INDICATED SURFACE-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 90 PERCENT...SO SHOWERS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS LAST NIGHT OR EARLIER THIS WEEK SO ARE PRONE TO FLOODING IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OCCUR. SOME FLASH FLASH GUIDANCE IS AS LOW AS HALF AN INCH IN 6 HOURS IN THE CHARLOTTESVILLE VA AREA WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT BANDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE THAN ONE BAND IMPACTING A GIVEN LOCATIONS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN TOTALS. INFLOW FROM SOUTHERN VA HAS NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...WITH OUTFLOWS PROVIDING WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE WRF ARW AND ARW 2 AND THE 15-16Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH SHOW SPOTTY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMA TO 3 INCHES WHERE CELL MERGERS...BRIEF TRAINING OR MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OCCUR. PETERSEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 https://www.weather.gov/marfc/Flash_Flood_Headwater_Guidance I dont think that's the one I have seen posted before on here though... anybody else got a better graphic?Thanks... Much appreciated. Certainly pretty low across the area. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: We are. But only got clipped by the first storm. 3 to 4 minute shower. Better chance is just south if it holds together over the next 5 miles or so. Radarscope has yellow and orange with some red over the city proper lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Sun really popping out now...temp up to 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Nice big bows (2) forming out in KY, possible derecho's forming and heading for western VA??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 56 minutes ago, yoda said: Radarscope has yellow and orange with some red over the city proper lol I live just west of I-81. Bulk of that first storm went just east of it. We did get the second batch. Looked more impressive on radar than the ground truth on that one. Actually rained harder (very briefly) with the first storm that just clipped us. I'll have to check my rain gage when I get home. Nearest PWS (1 mile east or so from me) shows .60". Not sure what NWS was thinking about slow-moving cells; those things were trucking. In and out in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Looks like I'll see some action on the MARC train ride home from DC. At least this time I won't get nailed on my walk to Union Station. I tried waiting that one out last week by taking a later train, but it was still pouring when I left anyway LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 No rain for me yet. But getting a lot of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Euro looks like it came around to the idea that there will be an organized area of heavy rain from the system this weekend. Paints 4-6” across areas just above the MD line. Pwats around 2”.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Montgomery jackpot inbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 .45” in just under 20 min. Frequent thunder and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Getting some awesome thunder and lightning up here! Town house is shaking. Up to .74”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Bottom of that line seems to be consolidating around MBY in east-central Fairfax County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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