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2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion


Kmlwx
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46 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs really closes off at 500 over us Saturday and look at 700 mb moisture core ..it's right over us .Interesting like others have said. Someone could get crushed .

700rh.us_ma.png

What do I have to do to get this in January?

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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0239
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1031 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN VA...BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 310228Z - 310630Z

SUMMARY...TROPICAL CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS APPEAR LIKELY TO TRAIN
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA WITH RAIN
RATES APPROACHING 3 IN/HR IN SOME CASES. SEVERE FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR WHERE TRAINING CAN PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND MAY BE
MOST LIKELY NEAR CHARLOTTESVILLE WHERE RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE ALREADY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES.

DISCUSSION...BOTH KLWX AND KFCX RADARS ARE SHOWING TROPICAL
CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS WITH LOW-ECHO CENTROIDS AND LIMITED
REFLECTIVITY ABOVE THE -10C LAYER. ALL THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
LIMITED ICE IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND DOMINANT WARM RAIN PROCESSES.
HIGH KDP VALUES AND RELATIVELY LOW ZDR VALUES ALSO TEND TO IMPLY
NUMEROUS SMALLER RAIN DROPLETS THAT IS MORE TYPICAL OF TROPICAL
RAINFALL. MRMS APPEARS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING RAIN RATES AS ITS
SURFACE PRECIP TYPE IS TAGGING THIS ACTIVITY AS CONVECTIVE RATHER
THAN TROPICAL. DUAL POL ESTIMATES APPEAR TO BE MORE
REASONABLE...AND SHOW RAIN RATES ALREADY REACHING CLOSE TO 3 IN/HR
IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS...WITH TOTALS AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES ON THE
WEST SIDE OF CHARLOTTESVILLE.

THE SCATTERED RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BACKBUILD INTO SSWLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND OR OVER 2 INCHES (ANALYZED BY THE RAP; GPS-PW OBS
AROUND 2.1 INCHES IN NRN VA) WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES. THIS SHOULD MAKE SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING A RISK INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RADARS MAY UNDERESTIMATE RAINFALL FURTHER
FROM THE RADAR AS EVEN THE LOWER ELEVATION TILTS MAY OVERSHOOT
MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL GIVEN THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES.

PARTICULAR CONCERN EXISTS FOR THE CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA WHERE
MESONET SITES ARE SHOWING OVER 3 IN/HR RAIN RATES IN THE PAST HOUR
AND KLWX RADAR SHOWS CONTINUED BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OVER
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. MAINTENANCE
OF THESE RAIN RATES FOR EVEN ANOTHER HOUR WOULD EXACERBATE ALREADY
REPORTED FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SEVERE AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WITH DEEP INUNDATION IN LOW-LYING
AREAS.

 

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Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1046 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

VAC003-540-310515-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180531T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
City of Charlottesville VA-Albemarle VA-
1046 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR IVY AND ADJACENT AREAS SOUTH
AND WEST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM EDT FOR
CENTRAL ALBEMARLE COUNTY AND THE CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...

At 1042 PM EDT, Emergency Management reported ongoing water
rescues from flash flooding in Ivy.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Ivy and adjacent areas south
and west of Charlottesville. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 9 inches have occurred with localized
amounts around 10 inches. Heavy rain is expected with 1
to 2 additional inches expected over the next hour. Streams and
creeks will continue to rise rapidly out of their banks.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Charlottesville, Crozet, Free Union, Westmoreland, Hollymead, Ivy,
North Garden, Boonesville, Newcomb Hall, Flordon, Carrsbrook,
Barracks, Scott Stadium and White Hall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
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Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1142 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

VAC003-540-310515-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180531T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
City of Charlottesville VA-Albemarle VA-
1142 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR IVY AND ADJACENT AREAS
SOUTH AND WEST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM EDT FOR
CENTRAL ALBEMARLE COUNTY AND THE CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...

At 1138 PM EDT, emergency management reported ongoing water rescues
from flash flooding in Ivy.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Ivy and adjacent areas south and
west of Charlottesville. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

Emergency management reports that sections of Wipperwill Road at
Garth Road have been washed out. A mud slide was reported on
Barracks Road. Many other roads were under several feet of rushing
water. Seek higher ground immediately and avoid flood prone areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Charlottesville, Crozet, Free Union, Westmoreland, Hollymead, Ivy,
North Garden, Boonesville, Newcomb Hall, Flordon, Carrsbrook,
Barracks, Scott Stadium and White Hall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1251 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR IVY AND ADJACENT AREAS SOUTH AND WEST
OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  The City of Charlottesville in central Virginia...
  Central Albemarle County in central Virginia...

* Until 415 AM EDT.

* At 1248 AM EDT, emergency management officials reported heavy rain
  across the area. Radar estimates 5 to 10 inches of rain have
  fallen. Flash flooding is occurring.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Ivy and adjacent areas south and
west of Charlottesville. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

Emergency management reports nearly a dozen roads blocked by rushing
water or completely washed out, as well as multiple water rescues
ongoing. Seek higher ground immediately and avoid flood prone areas.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Charlottesville, Crozet, Free Union, Westmoreland, Hollymead, Ivy,
  North Garden, Boonesville, Newcomb Hall, Flordon, Carrsbrook,
  Barracks, Scott Stadium and White Hall.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
122 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northwestern Madison County in northwestern Virginia...
  Central Greene County in central Virginia...

* Until 500 AM EDT.

* At 120 AM EDT, emergency management officials reported flash
  flooding across the area. Radar estimates 4 to 7 inches of rain
  have fallen. To repeat, flash flooding is already occurring.

Numerous roads are closed due to high water, and several water
rescues are ongoing. Seek higher ground immediately and avoid flood
prone areas.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Stanardsville, Big Meadows, Mcmullen, Lydia, Fletcher, Graves Mill,
  Haneytown, Saint George, Shady Grove and Syria.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
124 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Madison County in northwestern Virginia...
  North central Albemarle County in central Virginia...
  Southeastern Greene County in central Virginia...

* Until 500 AM EDT.

* At 123 AM EDT, emergency management officials reported flash
  flooding across the area. Radar estimates 3 to 6 inches of rain
  have fallen. To repeat, flash flooding is already occurring.

Numerous roads are closed due to high water. Several water rescues
are ongoing. Seek higher ground immediately and avoid flood prone
areas.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Madison, Stanardsville, Hollymead, Ruckersville, Criglersville,
  Quinque, Etlan, Haywood, Pratts, Earlysville, Newtown, Banco,
  Amicus, Shelby, Dawsonville, Advance Mills, Aylor, Wolftown, Hood
  and Burtonville.
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On 5/29/2018 at 4:57 PM, North Balti Zen said:

It could be the development above the town means that the town itself may have to be largely abandoned - not sure how any property there gets insurance after this.

This, too.  Why on earth would any company insure any property in downtown EC at this point?

 

 

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I'm sure they could get flood insurance.  Just it wouldn't be cheap.  THen again since it's always been a flood prone area, I'm sure flood insurance has never been cheap.

 

Once the new retention ponds are built, that will mitigate the flood impact when it does come again. 

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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1027 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

DCZ001-MDZ005-006-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ052>054-502-506-312230-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.A.0006.180531T1800Z-180601T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-
Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Washington, Eldersburg, Westminster,
Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie,
Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel,
Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate,
Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda,
Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia,
Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas,
Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale,
Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria,
Turnbull, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling
1027 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, and northern
  Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Anne
  Arundel, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and
  Southeast Montgomery, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford,
  Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges,
  Southeast Harford, and Southern Baltimore. The District of
  Columbia. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls
  Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Prince
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park, and Southern Fauquier.

* From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight

* Numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy
  rainfall are expected to approach the region this afternoon
  and continue past midnight. Localized rainfall amounts of 2 to
  4 inches are expected.

* Rapid rises of creeks and streams will be possible due to
  torrential rainfall, potentially spilling beyond their banks.
  In addition, low points along roadways may become impassible
  due to accumulating runoff. Flash flooding may develop
  quickly.
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guess it mostly depends on where a cell sets up. Not sure how well the meso models handle these type of setups in pinpointing where the heavier spots will be. we know the potential is there though. 

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1033 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and moist air mass will remain across the region this
afternoon. A frontal boundary will approach the region from the
northwest late Friday and into the weekend as low pressure 
develops over Pennsylvania, slowly drifting southward this 
weekend. High pressure will build in to the region from the 
northwest early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A plume of moisture rich air (precip water in excess of 2
inches) remains in place along the Central Virginia Blue Ridge. 
Multiple Flood Warnings remain in effect along and on both 
sides of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

Some convection is still expected this afternoon, although the
exact locations that could get hit the hardest are still
unclear. The consensus of the models indicate that along and
west of the Blue Ridge, as well as along and north of I-66, 
seem to be the more favorable zones. Although we cant rule out 
that additional activity will develop to the south and east of 
these areas. Such activity would be in the form of slow-moving
showers and thunderstorms. Given moist antecedent conditions, a 
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the Potomac 
Highlands/I-81/Blue Ridge (midday- eve), and then for the metros 
(aftn- night).

In addition to heavy rainfall and possible flooding, instability
and modest shear would support wet microbursts and perhaps some
rotating updrafts. Am hopeful that there will be a decreasing
trend overnight, but its the same tropical air mass as ongoing
currently so am not confident at all that will be the outcome.

 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

guess it mostly depends on where a cell sets up. Not sure how well the meso models handle these type of setups in pinpointing where the heavier spots will be. we know the potential is there though. 

I was suprised as well after just glancing through stuff.  I keep hearing "widespread" but like you said, seems like it will look like most of the other days.

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

I am gathering that when LWX in their AFD says "perhaps some rotating updrafts", that this means that there is a slight chance of a weak spin-up/tor?

Yea, there is a weak relationship between flash flooding and a few kidney beans trying to spin during these set ups.  After all this talk, watch it be bone dry through the next 3 days :lol: .

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