Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion


Kmlwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Wow, what a nice day. Forget the SPC, yesterday there was no chance for severe storms. Today it's really high. 

yes, lets forget the professionals, completely. good call. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

STW all the way down to the MD/PA border

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 93
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western New York
     Pennsylvania

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until
     800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...A line of storms will intensify as it moves east from
   western Pennsylvania. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary
   hazards.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
   statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south
   southwest of Franklin PA to 45 miles east of Williamsport PA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea I'd say that any box down our way is going to be dependent on the southern extend of the line.

12z HRDPS and 12z NAM NEST and 15z HRRR try to spark storms off to our west and to our north try to bring them through our area... going to be interesting to see what goes up when ConvT is breached later on

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I do like seeing the HRRR get a line into our area, and the forecast soundings suggest that it would have severe potential.   But one threat that appears more emphatically in the HRRR is significant rainfall from training convection over locations north of the DC Beltway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

I do like seeing the HRRR get a line into our area, and the forecast soundings suggest that it would have severe potential.   But one threat that appears more emphatically in the HRRR is significant rainfall from training convection over locations north of the DC Beltway.

I think we should be okay as afternoon goes on:

Per 1700 SPC meso -- around 1500-2000 MLCAPE, 3000-3500 SBCAPE, LIs are -6 to -8, 7.0 to 7.5 C/KM Mid Level Lapse Rates, 1000-1100 DCAPE.

Sig hail is 1.5" and sup composite is at 4 and at -4 for left moving sup

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...