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2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion


Kmlwx
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2 hours ago, yoda said:

Looks like storms will be coming from our NW or N tomorrow... which is a bit odd.  Though I believe @high risk liked tomorrow?

        I do, as the NAM3 wants to bring an organized line in from the north into an environment with strong instability (due to impressive lapse rates) and modest deep layer shear.   The shear is certainly better further north, but it would be sufficient this far south IF the extreme instability is realized.

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50 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

1.96 for the month. Had some pre-rain, shelf gusts around 40mph. Rain wasn't torrential by any means. But almost an inch fell .96 in. Lots of post storm thunder and lightning. But certainly nothing severe. Not complaining.

Well, I undertook another jebwalk, to celebrate the rain cooled air. The rain was letting up, or so I thought. Well, I ran into another brief downpour lol. 2nd night in a row lol, to get a good soaking. But, I am very happy to have rain! We got away with no severe and a good rain!

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Wednesday and onwards, we might get to have a little fun with some extra moisture from Florida. The great thing is that soils are near saturation. I am getting kind of stoked, lol. I'd really love it if that frontal boundary would please hang around into June.......

Bring It ON!!!!

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45 minutes ago, high risk said:

        I do, as the NAM3 wants to bring an organized line in from the north into an environment with strong instability (due to impressive lapse rates) and modest deep layer shear.   The shear is certainly better further north, but it would be sufficient this far south IF the extreme instability is realized.

Thanks for your post... I agree with you.  Nice to hear your thoughts 

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I am jealous of the DC Region and communities to the west. You guys got hit AGAIN, OVERNIGHT, by even more rain.

1) Soils there are soaked, close to saturated

2) Runoff will contribute to flash flooding, especially in the urban areas

3) FRANTIC water rescues

4) More life-giving water.

I got to watch a light show overnight and I was entertained, but you guys are IT. YOU got to enjoy even more torrential rain, on top of what you got destroyed by yesterday!!!!!!!

These storms are setting new boundaries. This means storm motion this afternoon will be west to east and will likely miss me altogether lmao.

What else is new.

Tonight you guys will get leveled by even more torrential thunderstorms, many of which will be severe. Ground will be completely saturated, because of this morning. Flash flooding tonight there WILL. Be. EPIC.! There will be widespread frantic water rescues. With luck, this will play out in evening rush lol. I should storm chase to DC tonight, should be memorable.

WELCOME TO RAINMAGEDDON WEEK!

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Check THIS out!!!!!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A constant development of strong thunderstorms evolved overnight
since around midnight. These thunderstorms became strong enough
and frequent enough to produce very heavy rainfall, hail, and
frequent cloud to ground lightning from eastern West Virginia,
across northern Virginia, and into the D.C. Metropolitan area
and Maryland suburbs. Additional thunderstorms are developing in
the wake of the outflow boundaries of the previous organized
cluster of thunderstorms. Also, new thunderstorms are developing
on the front-running outflow boundaries to the east of the
cluster. Frequent lightning, heavy rain, and lightning remain
the main threat across northeast Virginia, Washington D.C. and
east toward the Chesapeake Bay through daybreak.

 

 

Whats not to like? I know I am definitely LOVIN this!

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