Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Hmmm...on the Pitt radar the lead cell near Uniontown, PA...about to sink into Garrett county...has some weak rotation on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It depends on the 18z sounding from IAD. Once I get a peek at that, I'll make my call. Where would you find said sounding? SPC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Where would you find said sounding? SPC? Yup, here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yup, here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/ Figured so lol... been clicking refresh the past 5 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Storm down near Staunton in Augusta County doing well Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 238 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 VAC015-790-820-141900- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-180514T1900Z/ Augusta VA-City of Staunton VA-City of Waynesboro VA- 238 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL AUGUSTA ...THE NORTHEASTERN CITY OF STAUNTON AND THE NORTHEASTERN CITY OF WAYNESBORO... At 238 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Crimora, or 7 miles north of Waynesboro, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Staunton, Waynesboro, Crimora, Fishersville, Verona, New Hope, Hermitage and Fort Defiance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Figured so lol... been clicking refresh the past 5 minutes Same...just saw a 2" hail report out of PBZ's area. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 18z sounding page up on SPC... but only for RNK and DVN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: 18z sounding page up on SPC... but only for RNK and DVN Wonder if it's delayed or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 The sounding is on Wyoming’s site. http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2018&MONTH=05&FROM=1412&TO=1500&STNM=72403 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: The sounding is on Wyoming’s site. Got a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Wind damage has been reported in Verona, VA (down in the Augusta County cell) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Got a link? He posted it in his post just after you posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Where's the fuel for this line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Afternoon AFD for this afternoon only: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 306 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A front over the area tonight will lift north on Tuesday, then drop southward again Wednesday. It will continue to meander across the region through Friday. The front may lift north again during the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface analysis depicts the slow moving front pushing gradually northeast across the region, but it remains southwest of the metro. However, its retreat continues to progress northeast with clouds now having broken and temps warming up quickly. Locations southwest of the front are well into the 80s with a few spots into the lower 90s. Aloft, potent shortwave is crossing southeastward across the region, currently in eastern Ohio and progged to reach the metro by 0Z. With shear of 30-40 knots and progged CAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg, widespread thunderstorms with damaging winds are expected. There are also some isolated severe storms developing in the warm sector due to terrain enhancement across western Virginia. Best timing for the widespread line is late aft/early eve, 4PM - 8PM, just ahead of the shortwave. This late timing should allow continued warming and destabilization across the region near the warm front, which should continue to enhance storm growth. With high 850-700 and 850-500 mb lapse rates in vicinity of 7 degrees per km, storms will have robust updrafts with both hail and wind threats, but with the storms likely congealing into a line driven by cold pool just behind, damaging winds appear to edge out hail as the biggest threat. While there could be an isolated tornado as well given the low level helicity, but right now this is not considered the primary threat. Thus, severe thunderstorm watch is in effect thru early evening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, yoda said: He posted it in his post just after you posted Is that really showing 0 CAPE...weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Is that your call? All aboard the severe bus! I don't think we get a MOD risk after looking at the SPEC IAD sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Is that really showing 0 CAPE...weird Its up on SPC now... just looks weird I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: I don't think we get a MOD risk after looking at the SPEC IAD sounding. What's SPEC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: What's SPEC? Special soundings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Its up on SPC now... just looks weird I guess That's actually somewhat uninspiring...still a stout cap too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: That's actually somewhat uninspiring...still a stout cap too. We need to hope for a good cold pool I guess to sustain/strengthen this line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's actually somewhat uninspiring...still a stout cap too. LWX did say in their AFD that warming and instability would grow as evening goes on and before the system gets here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 You can kind of see a DC split opening up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 SPC says all systems go in latest MCD Mesoscale Discussion 0411 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018 Areas affected...portions of southeast OH...central/northern WV...southwest PA...central/western MD...northern VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88... Valid 141926Z - 142130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds is expected to continue, and become potentially widespread, through this evening. DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms extended from southcentral PA west to near the WV/OH border near KPKB at 1915Z and was moving generally southeast at 30 mph. The line of storms was in the vicinity of a composite frontal boundary that extended from southern OH across northern VA and then southeast to near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. The environment downstream from the line of storms is characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and around 35 kts of westerly deep-layer shear. Special 18Z soundings from RNK and IAD show the eastern edge of the EML across western VA, and RAP guidance has been consistent in suggesting a continued eastward expansion of these steeper mid-level lapse rates east through this evening. This should contribute to pockets of strong surface-based instability developing over the next few hours. As the convectively-generated cold pool becomes more pronounced, the line of storms should accelerate to the east/southeast with a continued risk for damaging winds which should become more widespread with time. The stronger storms within the line will also pose a risk for large hail. As the convective line matures, some risk for a QLCS tornado will exist. More isolated severe storms have developed over the higher terrain of western VA, where MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg exists but vertical shear is weak. These storms have a history of marginally severe hail, and may also pose a risk for localized strong wind gusts as storms merge into a small cluster and move towards central VA the remainder of this afternoon. ..Bunting.. 05/14/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 I think worst will stay south of me, not to say i won't get something out of it, but i have a feel the more severe stuff will be south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I think worst will stay south of me, not to say i won't get something out of it, but i have a feel the more severe stuff will be south. Same...this has VA written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 Yeah...I'd love to see some more easterly component to the entire complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 My son's soccer practice is already canceled. Which means it won't rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just now, smokeybandit said: My son's soccer practice is already canceled. Which means it won't rain. Canceled because of the weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Canceled due to the chance of thunderstorms, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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