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2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion


Kmlwx
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1 minute ago, high risk said:

what's crazy is that the overall setup for later Tuesday actually looks as good or even better.    Could be intense squall line (avoiding overuse of the D word), part 2.

This posts needs a NSFW tag

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6 minutes ago, high risk said:

what's crazy is that the overall setup for later Tuesday actually looks as good or even better.    Could be intense squall line (avoiding overuse of the D word), part 2.

SPC new 1730 DAY 2 likes PA into NY into New England

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1 minute ago, andyhb said:

That EML for tomorrow looks absolutely nasty.

You''re all getting better severe than I got on my Plains trip lol.

   I know.   I was in Norman last week, and I've returned now for what will be 4 straight days of impressive storms here (and 5 of the last 6 days).

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Impressive hail signatures on the cells just south of Pittsburgh...warnings for half dollar to golf balls sized hail.  

It was way back in Licking County OH -- but there were power outages, trees down, and roofs damaged -- dunno if that will even affect us though

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

SPC new 1730 DAY 2 likes PA into NY into New England

   The wind fields up there are better, so I can see what they've highlighted that area, but we're going to have better instability (4000 sfc-based cape, per the NAM), and the CAMS have a nice squall line signal here too, so I'm perfectly fine with being in "only" the slight risk for now.

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5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

There' some showery junk forming down near Harrisonburg and Staunton in VA. Hopefully that's not the start of popcorn stuff ruining the instability. 

They've had full sun all day so they've hit the convective temp.  Plus the terrain is aiding updrafts.  We shouldn't have to worry about that here.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

They've had full sun all day so they've hit the convective temp.  Plus the terrain is aiding updrafts.  We shouldn't have to worry about that here.

I'm kind of giddy about the radar at this point. It looks very very promising to the NW of the region. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

I'm kind of giddy about the radar at this point. It looks very very promising to the NW of the region. 

Yea, nearly every storm that has fired has been able to sustain it's updraft.  There even are some hail cores above 30kft per the Pitt radar.  20z MOD risk anyone?

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17 minutes ago, yoda said:

It was way back in Licking County OH -- but there were power outages, trees down, and roofs damaged -- dunno if that will even affect us though

Lived in that county from 1982-1992. Went to HS in that county. The name was the source of a lot of jokes over the years.

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea, nearly every storm that has fired has been able to sustain it's updraft.  There even are some hail cores above 30kft per the Pitt radar.  20z MOD risk anyone?

Is that your call? All aboard the severe bus!

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First SVR of the day.

Quote

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
219 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  East central Augusta County in western Virginia...
  The eastern City of Staunton in western Virginia...
  The northeastern City of Waynesboro in western Virginia...

* Until 300 PM EDT.

* At 218 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Staunton,
  moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches 
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as 
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by 
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. 
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Staunton, Waynesboro, Crimora, Fishersville, Verona, New Hope,
  Mount Sidney, Hermitage and Fort Defiance.

 

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