WEATHER53 Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Crazy storms in Salisbury. 50 mph gusts, then lull, then house rattling and even shaking with one where report was instant. still firing off big ones to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 1 hour ago, high risk said: while you're totally correct that the strongest signal is in the HRRR, the NAM3 does have a system arriving around the same time - it's just not quite as organized or expansive. 04z HRRR still brings in an organized complex through the region from 08z to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: That HAIL can and will do a variety of damage. I am very happy that did not happen in Dale City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Had some penny sized hail last night when the PA complex moved south into MD. Another storm overnight around 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Not really a good pattern for severe weather general. The Atlantic tropical ridge is too strong. We need a Lower Midwest heat ridge, Southwest cutoff Low, or something like the late '90s where it gets really warm like upper 90s to 100 in July, coming from the dusty Upper Midwest. This pattern is tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 We need the opposite of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Lots of convective models are actually hinting at a thunderstorm cluster affecting at least parts of the sub forum tomorrow afternoon with fairly decent CAPE (especially southwest). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 29 minutes ago, George BM said: Lots of convective models are actually hinting at a thunderstorm cluster affecting at least parts of the sub forum tomorrow afternoon with fairly decent CAPE (especially southwest). NAM 3K has a MCS surviving overnight into tomorrow. CAPE is decent along and west of the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 STW coming soon for a good part of the region http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0398.html Mesoscale Discussion 0398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018 Areas affected...portions of southeast OH...northern WV including Panhandle...western MD...southwest PA...northwest VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131756Z - 132000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and move southeast, with a risk for large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two will also be possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed prior to 20Z/4 pm EDT. DISCUSSION...Mesoanalysis at 17Z placed a nearly stationary front through central portions of OH and extending east/southeast into far northern VA. Strong diabatic heating of a moist boundary layer (lower/mid 60s surface dew points) combined with relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will result in pockets of moderate surface-based instability by mid afternoon. Latest visible imagery shows deepening cumulus clouds near/south of the front, and continued heating combined with weak frontal convergence should contribute to isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. Veering flow in the lowest 1-2 KM becomes largely unidirectional within the bulk of the cloud-bearing layer, with deep-layer shear ranging between 35-45 kts. Initial thunderstorm development may pose a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Slightly more favorable low-level shear near the front would suggest at least some risk for a tornado, especially within the first few hours of initiation. With time, a couple of small clusters of storms may move southeast with a risk for severe hail/wind. The area is being monitored for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, which may be needed prior to 20Z. ..Bunting/Grams.. 05/13/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 238 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain near the area through much of next week. Another cold front will then approach from the northwest late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface frontal boundary early this afternoon now resides from near Cumberland MD to Manassas VA and southeastward towards the Virginia Tidewater. To the northeast of this boundary, cooler temperatures and low clouds are present. To the southwest, there exists clearer skies aside from developing a cumulus field. An interesting setup presents itself this afternoon and evening, and one that has a conditional but increasing threat of severe weather. The surface boundary is expected to remain more or less stationary for the remainder of the day, as a wave of low pressure moves along the boundary from Ohio this afternoon, east- southeastward and into central Virginia by late this evening. In the warm sector, temperatures have already warmed into the 80s and may perhaps hit 90F again in a few locales. Surface dew points will maintain readings in the low to mid 60s as well. In addition, relatively steep mid level lapse rates of around 7C/KM still exist in this sector. This combination has already led to 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE. To the northeast of this boundary, while there is expected to be little to no surface instability, there`s indication that elevated instability will move aloft, and MUCAPE values near 1000 J/KG may exist by late this afternoon and evening. There is ample wind shear across the region, although the highest values are displaced northward from the best instability, with 0-6KM values ranging from 30-40 knots in the warm sector to 50 knots across Maryland. The earlier uncertainty with regards to the capping inversion in place is being reduced as SPC Mesoanalysis is depicting lessening MLCIN across portions of WV, OH, and southwestern PA. Morning convection over Ohio/PA has likely set down some outflow boundaries, and those along with the frontal convergence will likely be enough to spark shower/thunderstorm development across OH/WV/PA again this afternoon, and spread eastward into eastern WV/MD/VA. If this does occur, a severe threat exists, with damaging winds and large hail the main threats in the warm sector, large hail on the cool side, and perhaps a low risk of an isolated tornado if a cell can move along the frontal boundary. Locally heavy rain will also occur. Convection will wane overnight, with lows from the upper 50s to low 60s. Areas of fog/mist and low ceilings are likely again on the cool side of the frontal boundary, which may settle back southwestward as it did last night to a position from Cumberland to Charlottesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 2% TOR certainly justified again today based off the setup. Shame this isn't about 100 miles east. Meso: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2018/md0398.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Blue Box until 3:00 UTC http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0086.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Storms in PA are beginning to dive ESE and SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Watching that storm heading SE that is currently by Somerset PA... could interact with the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 STW for Fauquier/Culpepper/ hail to golf ball size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: STW for Fauquier/Culpepper/ hail to golf ball size Now a TOR: Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 609 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2018 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Culpeper County in northern Virginia... * Until 630 PM EDT. * At 609 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles northwest of Culpeper, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Culpeper around 625 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 STW for storms entering W Maryland for winds 60 to 75 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Tornado warning on the Bedford county cell in PA about to move into MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 More TORs issued in the blue box today than the Red Box yesterday...heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Wouldnt be surprised to see a TW upcoming on the cell just SE of Warrenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Some brief small hail, but no significant wind with the cell that was severe in PA before it diminished on its way here. Did pick up 0.79" in 15 minutes, which left a lot of standing water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 18z NAM supercell and sig tor composite hitting DC area hard 00z TUES... interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 hour ago, yoda said: 18z NAM supercell and sig tor composite hitting DC area hard 00z TUES... interesting The 00Z NAM3 likes 00z Wednesday, with really volatile environment progged for our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 2 hours ago, high risk said: The 00Z NAM3 likes 00z Wednesday, with really volatile environment progged for our area. Where are you getting the sounding from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 7 hours ago, high risk said: The 00Z NAM3 likes 00z Wednesday, with really volatile environment progged for our area. 06z NAM still advertising the same. Nice line dropping south out of PA 21z-00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 sounding for my backyard at 21z per the NAM. Small CAP in place, but plenty of CAPE to work with. LI is pretty low too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 My vacation is Wednesday to Friday. Enjoy the best severe weather episode of the season during that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 SPC just went D1 ENH for the VA side of the Potomac. Looks like they already have the afternoon watch box targeted by the way they drew the 30% wind area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Day 1 and 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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