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2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion


Kmlwx
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Afternoon AFD from LWX (relevant parts posted below for severe weather chance):

Quote

There are hints that the backdoor could (should?) shift northward
again as a 50 kt low level jet heads up the coast ahead of the
approaching cold front. CAPE will be meager due to the nighttime
timing, but still present. Regardless of that, there will be plenty
of shear and moisture transport. With precipitable water reaching
1.5 inches, a period of heavy rainfall likely will result. In
addition, could not rule out a well-defined axis with gusty winds (a
la QLCS environment). Will be focusing on the enhanced wording for
heavy rainfall, and keep thunder chances at slight at this point.
Certainly an active period that should be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By Monday morning, low level jet induced rainfall will be exiting to
the east. A low pressure center tracking northeast along the
advancing surface front will likely be located nearby. There`s a
possibility some destabilization occurs in the narrow window between
the moderate rainfall and the surface front and vort max aloft.
Ample deep layer shear will be present, so a squall line may develop.
Temperatures will be highly dependent on the warm and cold frontal
progression. Drying will take place by later in the afternoon,
except along the Allegheny Front, where cold/moist WNW flow will
result in upslope snow showers which will persist into Tuesday.
Light accumulations will be possible. Temperatures will return below
normal areawide Tuesday into Tuesday night as the vertically stacked
low pivots toward eastern Canada and the thermal trough passes
overhead.


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21 minutes ago, yoda said:

What, no talk of the SPC day 2 severe threat for our region?  Talk of damaging wind gusts and tornado threat

Believe that discussion is mainly targeted for the area running between a line running from coastal NC up to the southern Delmarva. 

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Slight risk isn't far away and we are in marginal risk

Does not change my original message. 3km NAM does show a healthy line gusting through overnight Sun into Mon. Nonetheless I'm not expecting anything other than a potentially gusty squall.

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According to the 3km NAM Caddy Waddy is still holding on a bit right in front of the line with a surface inversion. It has warmed from the 40's at the surface by then but the LLJ would still have some CAD to eat off of the immediate area. But I'm of course just stating what already obvious to you all. 

image.thumb.png.3235f9fd54315315832458a2a5f8142e.png

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From NWS Wakefield:    

Latest Bufkit soundings depict curved hodographs profiles with
strong SSE low level flow (50-55kt @ 950mb) and strong SSW flow
aloft. The limiting factor will be minimal sfc-based instability
with the timing during the nighttime hours Sun night (early Mon
am)...and a relatively substantial stable layer across far
eastern VA and the Eastern Shore. Again, greatest threat will
be strong gusty winds getting mixed down within convective cells
along with potential for brief, heavy rainfall. Must also be
noted that 0-1km shear profile is actually quite impressive,
quickly increasing to 30-40kt after 00z/MON. Therefore, we still
cannot rule out the potential for a couple of rotating storms
capable of producing brief spin-up tornadoes, with greatest
concern along and SE of I-64 across central and eastern VA
(including RIC metro/Tri-Cities area).
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SPC Day 1 2000 OTLK:

   ...Parts of northern VA, MD to the Delmarva Peninsula...
   No changes with the northeast portion of the marginal risk, as
   strong to severe storms will be possible across these areas as the
   cold front advances through this region later this evening into the
   overnight.  The backdoor cold front that was analyzed south of the
   lower Potomac River this afternoon is expected to advance north this
   evening and tonight as a warm front through at least southern,
   central and eastern MD, and the Delmarva Peninsula.  Modifying
   environment just ahead of the cold front could prove favorable for
   strong winds and perhaps a tornado threat.

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LWX afternoon AFD re severe threat for tonight:

The upper trough will take on a negative tilt tonight. A cold
front extending southward from low pressure in the Great Lakes
will be moving eastward, with a triple point low developing
where it intersects the backdoor front. Model consensus has this
low tracking near or just northwest of I-95, which will cause
the backdoor front to lift back northward, at least into
southern Maryland, and perhaps as far north as the Baltimore-
Washington metro. In addition to strong deep layer shear, high
helicity will be found along this frontal zone. The strong
synoptic forcing will likely result in the band of moderate to
heavy rain to continue eastward, with a more organized QLCS in
the warm sector. Nocturnal timing and possible boundary layer
stability may mitigate the severe threat, but the strong wind
fields can`t be ignored. Locally damaging winds and perhaps a
brief tornado are the primary threats in the warm sector. The
extent of the severe threat will need to be monitored through
the evening, and should be east of the area by daybreak Monday
(if not a few hours earlier).

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16 minutes ago, yoda said:

Severe storms knocking on LWX CWA door in the SW corner

We'll have to hope for the backdoor front to lift north a healthy amount. You can see the cells that were around/south of Culpeper are dying as they lift north. 

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

We'll have to hope for the backdoor front to lift north a healthy amount. You can see the cells that were around/south of Culpeper are dying as they lift north. 

It will... our chances for storms are after midnight

SPC has us in 5 wind and 2 tor

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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

It will... our chances for storms are after midnight

SPC has us in 5 wind and 2 tor

I think odds are better for you. There are indications it might not surge north. Somewhere around DC seems probable. Not sure it'll make it back up to say Baltimore. We'll see. 

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