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jaxjagman
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19 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Nina looks pretty strong to me,looks similar back into late Oct when it peaked,i'd be surprised if this doesn't end up at a moderate Nina upcoming as cold as the subsurface is.The recent CCKW is helping this out with another being shown towards the end of the month,but it looks weaker than it did a few days ago

I wouldn't be surprised if it warms up early Next Spring, we also started getting this Nino1.2 vs Nino 4 thing going in 2000. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Have to be careful with assuming the subsurface cold will translate fully to the surface. September 1983 was 26.2C in Nino 3.4 like this year. But the subsurface was -2.15 in September, much colder than this year. Still only a 26.0C event in winter. The coldest reading was 25.40C in November 1983 with that La Nina. 

The warmth in the PMM area and then by Indonesia (at and below the surface) also are going to get mixed in with the cold coming up at some point.

Given how closely the subsurface has mimicked 2011 for Jan-Sept, the warm up below the surface should begin around Halloween, give or take two weeks. My guess would be November / December coldest at the surface again and then fairly rapid decay starting late January.

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I'm seeing a mild winter again. Can't sugar coat that La Nina may over-shoot weak category. IOD is also in a crap phase for the Southeast US including the Valley.

QBO actually dropping, vs the fake dip, could help. This would be the second time a fake followed by real drop was the cycle, going back a few years for the two cycles.

I'm also hearing strato rumblings, but October is too early to use the tool. Mid-autumn warmings are wasted. One would look for action in November. 

Note I fell way behind the long-range threads and don't expect to catch up. I will join those conversations after checking the last page or two, starting on or after Tuesday. Been out for six weeks with the birth of our second child!

Regarding my overall mild feel for winter, maybe spring severe will be interesting. 

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On 10/7/2021 at 7:00 PM, raindancewx said:

Have to be careful with assuming the subsurface cold will translate fully to the surface. September 1983 was 26.2C in Nino 3.4 like this year. But the subsurface was -2.15 in September, much colder than this year. Still only a 26.0C event in winter. The coldest reading was 25.40C in November 1983 with that La Nina. 

The warmth in the PMM area and then by Indonesia (at and below the surface) also are going to get mixed in with the cold coming up at some point.

Given how closely the subsurface has mimicked 2011 for Jan-Sept, the warm up below the surface should begin around Halloween, give or take two weeks. My guess would be November / December coldest at the surface again and then fairly rapid decay starting late January.

We'll see, this is looking more like a more modoki, west based NINA than anything,its even cooling into the subsurface closer to the IDL.After the next KW moving through this week the MJO signal looks mute right now until it strenghtens into the IO towards the end of the month.Least that is what i see,but this still looks stronger than 2011-2012..IMHO.Think if i were a betting man from TX/LA/AR into the OV could see all kind of extremes,cutter heaven.But that is JMHO.

heat-last-year.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “La Niña WATCH”. During September 2021, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index below -1℃ is expected to gradually increase to -0.24℃ during the forecast period. Based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests a 90% chance of La Niña conditions with weak intensity for November 2021 – January 2022, which gradually decreases. Meanwhile, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to be gradually increasing and then dominant during February – April 2022.
  • Highly probable above normal temperatures are predicted for much of the globe, especially for Eurasia, southern USA, and Argentina for November 2021 – April 2022.
  • A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for eastern Russia, some regions of Canada, and the Arctic for November 2021 – April 2022.
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I think we'll carry a -PNA into the Spring. 

Check this out.. I made a diverse cold pressure South America composite of 20analogs.. Some El Nino's, some Neutral's, mostly Nina's

Cold water South America, 20 analogs https://ibb.co/xjmJKtw   https://ibb.co/tZ3k5ZK

2 years later it's a strong El Nino signal!

https://ibb.co/0ZLs4T9

Classic Peruvian fisherman study the wind, and predict global weather for 2 years ahead. 

Also, it's a ridiculous -PNA composite for the Winter

https://ibb.co/R9Sk75d

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Guess we should finally punt the idea of the horrid 2011-12 winter,at least by the ENSO.Subsurface still has a large cold pool of -6..The seasonals coming in now shows the ENSO much colder than what they have been showing in recent months even into spring

MONTALVO E AS CI.png

wkteq_xz.gif (68 (3).png

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  • 2 weeks later...
4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Subsurface has leveled off the last several days.No more subsurface -6 but its still cold below,east of the IDL.Not much of any KW  being shown the next several days so NINA should stay more weak right now,least that is how i see it

heat-last-year.g (1).png

Over at another forum, a guy mentioned standing wave in phase 5 for the cooler November. Do you think phase 7 is even possible? I feel that would be our best opportunity to get into a colder pattern 

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46 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Over at another forum, a guy mentioned standing wave in phase 5 for the cooler November. Do you think phase 7 is even possible? I feel that would be our best opportunity to get into a colder pattern 

Euro seems to have alot of support bringing the MJO signal out of the COD  into Dec.Cold signal but i think we should warm up some before then,lots of questions seemingly what the MJO does after that,be nice if it stayed there but that is wishcasting..lol

Frontier Weather.png

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