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ENSO


jaxjagman
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I think we'll carry a -PNA into the Spring. 

Check this out.. I made a diverse cold pressure South America composite of 20analogs.. Some El Nino's, some Neutral's, mostly Nina's

Cold water South America, 20 analogs https://ibb.co/xjmJKtw   https://ibb.co/tZ3k5ZK

2 years later it's a strong El Nino signal!

https://ibb.co/0ZLs4T9

Classic Peruvian fisherman study the wind, and predict global weather for 2 years ahead. 

Also, it's a ridiculous -PNA composite for the Winter

https://ibb.co/R9Sk75d

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...
4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Subsurface has leveled off the last several days.No more subsurface -6 but its still cold below,east of the IDL.Not much of any KW  being shown the next several days so NINA should stay more weak right now,least that is how i see it

heat-last-year.g (1).png

Over at another forum, a guy mentioned standing wave in phase 5 for the cooler November. Do you think phase 7 is even possible? I feel that would be our best opportunity to get into a colder pattern 

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46 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Over at another forum, a guy mentioned standing wave in phase 5 for the cooler November. Do you think phase 7 is even possible? I feel that would be our best opportunity to get into a colder pattern 

Euro seems to have alot of support bringing the MJO signal out of the COD  into Dec.Cold signal but i think we should warm up some before then,lots of questions seemingly what the MJO does after that,be nice if it stayed there but that is wishcasting..lol

Frontier Weather.png

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I dont know why people want to kill this Nina off so quick.

The equatorial subsurface has falling again,even with the strenghten Walker circulation  in which will  would cause upwelling along with KW in the East Pac as the MJO rolls through.Might take a beat down but its not going to kill this NINA anytime soon.

wkteq_xz.gif (680×880).png

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NINA could die off quickly it seems.Much as i kicked the 2011'-2012,the equatorial is looking quite similar,just a few weeks ahead,we could have a active severe spring seemingly right now

 

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
15 Jan 2022 1007.03 1007.60 -24.40 3.32 7.51
14 Jan 2022 1008.50 1005.95 -9.70 4.71 8.00
13 Jan 2022 1011.05 1005.35 5.14 5.64 8.43
12 Jan 2022 1013.14 1008.60 -0.32 6.01 8.61
11 Jan 2022 1011.99 1008.45 -5.04 6.46 8.80
10 Jan 2022 1007.84 1008.35 -24.11 7.04 9.02
9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43
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Do we think there will be a Nino next year? Will it be the sacréd Modoki? Will it actually behave like an El Nino or will the pattern have this sort of a "back loaded" look from our last Nino:

LAQxnUu.png 

 

I feel like this week and esp. what we're seeing modeled next week have actually been/are what we would expect out of a La Nina: fast flow and N stream, having to time everything just right. But, the STJ has also been active over the past couple of week and we certainly didn't have a front-loaded winter:

ZaKcUNB.png

 

Imagine if that had been based on 1971 - 2000 normals! I guess you could argue that the past 2 and a half weeks are our front loaded winter, but to me this is more of a middle loaded winter so far. 

That image does of course suggest that there's another variable in my question about next year's ENSO, but as strange as this may sound to some, let's leave that out for now since I don't want to stir the pot. 

I guess my question is, do we think the Pacific gradients are somewhat reset after the super Nino of Doom(c) in 2016? How's the AMO looking? Did the PDO flip this year?

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

 

Not sure if there is a great analog year,I think you should throw out some of those  those years,i posted on the severe thread.Best match in recent decades could look like the 2017-18 NINA,But the map i'm posting is into April of 2018,but still looks like it could match  up the best.  https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2018/04/enso-update-increased-chance-for-el-nino-next-fall-or-winter/

ENSO update_ Increased chance for El Niño next fall or winter _ Climate and Agriculture in the South (1).png

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Subsurface is cooling east of the IDL,Resilient NINA going on right now.Lots of the seasonals keep NINA going on into summer.This along with could potentially be a active Hurricane Season it seems right now and possibly Severe.CFS shows a KW moving across East of the IDL the next few days.Still think the best analog year from the past decades is 2012,but into Met spring it was starting to warm in the east,not like right now.See what it looks like in the several days.

wkteq_xz.gif (680×880) (2).png

Sea Surface Temperature _ APEC Climate Center.png

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Nina is hanging tough.2012 was looking like a good analog year but not so much now,Equatorial ocean heat temp

anoms which rose to positive have gone negative once again the last few days.So it's acting more like a resurgent NINA.2012 on March 15th set many records and the month of March set many more with a +AO/NAO

Record-breaking-hot-temperatures-across-the-US-in-March-2012-Earth-EarthSky.png

 

Record-breaking-hot-temperatures-across-the-US-in-March-2012-Earth-EarthSky (2).png

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/13/2022 at 9:20 PM, John1122 said:

A triple dip weak Nina wouldn't break my heart. They are winter gold here normally. 

True. Even summer could be tempered for yet another year - in contrast to 1st year Nina. Could we be that lucky?

Also a third winter in a row with mild Tropical Pacific SSTs does create a cooler background in the broad Northern Hemisphere Atmo, regardless of MJO behavior. Let's do it!

First of all for spring @jaxjagman let's try to hold that +TNI. Should we be careful what we wish for? Or just game on!

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On 3/22/2022 at 12:58 PM, nrgjeff said:

True. Even summer could be tempered for yet another year - in contrast to 1st year Nina. Could we be that lucky?

Also a third winter in a row with mild Tropical Pacific SSTs does create a cooler background in the broad Northern Hemisphere Atmo, regardless of MJO behavior. Let's do it!

First of all for spring @jaxjagman let's try to hold that +TNI. Should we be careful what we wish for? Or just game on!

MJO and KW shouldn't have a problem upwelling those warm SST'S just beneath the surface.Should see a decent spike and warming in 1+2  upcoming the next few days.Guess the question would be is what happens afterwards?Certainly thought Nina was  on life support several weeks ago

Tropical-Monitoring-North-Carolina-Institute-for-Climate-Studies (1).png

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Cosgrove thinks there is a flip to neutral or weak Nino by midwinter.  Looks like the ENSO forecast is showing an abrupt change around January.  He also noted that the current Nina is sort of choppy.  He pointed out that subsurfaces temps in some regions are quite warm(right below the colder water).   I feel a bit more confident that next spring and summer will be seasonal to BN.

My comments...The QBO, which has been strongly negative, would appear to be set to turn positive.  There are some conflicting signals out there re: winter.  I tend to favor a cold start, and then wx chaos as the ENSO flips.  Seasonal forecasts are pretty much a crapshoot...this winter may be a monster crapshoot.  It seems when we have variation in the pattern during the winter season, we have our best chances.  I would think that is likely this winter.  

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