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jaxjagman
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  • 2 weeks later...

Seems like some signs of a possible resurgent Nina upcoming and also signs it won't be.Some of these models have a warm and cold bias.GFDL seems to be warm while GEOS would keep us in a LaNina the rest of our lives.

 

The last update CPC put out showed the surface continued to warm in the east,but the subsurface got colder around region 3

Nino-3-4-forecasts.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

Yes it looks like the KWs are taking a toll on the cooler waters. Subsurface tries to hang in there but even that's not where it was a couple weeks ago. Maybe trade La Nina for +TNI.

At any rate the atmospheric response seems to have tipped its hand. Texas Panhandle overcame drought. Dixie Alley looks to have a true warm sector Wednesday. Regardless of the La Nina or TNI outcome, the atmosphere has the imprint which can last several weeks or even a few months longer than the SSTs.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

You are trolling Bro. I’ve a thick skin from work. However I call out Internet trolls, period. 

Anyone wonder why Meteorologists are leaving the forums in droves? American Wx and Storm Track are bleeding Mets. We are switching to invite only niche Discord servers.

However I do still like American Weather, Tennessee Valley best for winter. This is the best sub-form for South winter, and wishing, haha!

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1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

You are trolling Bro. I’ve a thick skin from work. However I call out Internet trolls, period. 

Anyone wonder why Meteorologists are leaving the forums in droves? American Wx and Storm Track are bleeding Mets. We are switching to invite only niche Discord servers.

However I do still like American Weather, Tennessee Valley best for winter. This is the best sub-form for South winter, and wishing, haha!

LOL..you better not leave us,your opinion means to much here,I've learned alot from you as i am sure many others would vouch my same opinion.

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The strong EKW put a beating with the subsurface in the east,surface is still cool in 1.2.Seems to be signs of another KW towards the middle  of May.Seemingly, this could really warm up the surface in the east,kinda like a 1-2 punch with the last EKW,but on the other hand the subsurface is still rather cool in 1.2,guess we will find out soon enough

wkteq_xz-gif-680×880-.png

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  • 2 months later...
  • 2 months later...

Nina looks pretty strong to me,looks similar back into late Oct when it peaked,i'd be surprised if this doesn't end up at a moderate Nina upcoming as cold as the subsurface is.The recent CCKW is helping this out with another being shown towards the end of the month,but it looks weaker than it did a few days ago

heat-last-year.g.png

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19 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Nina looks pretty strong to me,looks similar back into late Oct when it peaked,i'd be surprised if this doesn't end up at a moderate Nina upcoming as cold as the subsurface is.The recent CCKW is helping this out with another being shown towards the end of the month,but it looks weaker than it did a few days ago

I wouldn't be surprised if it warms up early Next Spring, we also started getting this Nino1.2 vs Nino 4 thing going in 2000. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Have to be careful with assuming the subsurface cold will translate fully to the surface. September 1983 was 26.2C in Nino 3.4 like this year. But the subsurface was -2.15 in September, much colder than this year. Still only a 26.0C event in winter. The coldest reading was 25.40C in November 1983 with that La Nina. 

The warmth in the PMM area and then by Indonesia (at and below the surface) also are going to get mixed in with the cold coming up at some point.

Given how closely the subsurface has mimicked 2011 for Jan-Sept, the warm up below the surface should begin around Halloween, give or take two weeks. My guess would be November / December coldest at the surface again and then fairly rapid decay starting late January.

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I'm seeing a mild winter again. Can't sugar coat that La Nina may over-shoot weak category. IOD is also in a crap phase for the Southeast US including the Valley.

QBO actually dropping, vs the fake dip, could help. This would be the second time a fake followed by real drop was the cycle, going back a few years for the two cycles.

I'm also hearing strato rumblings, but October is too early to use the tool. Mid-autumn warmings are wasted. One would look for action in November. 

Note I fell way behind the long-range threads and don't expect to catch up. I will join those conversations after checking the last page or two, starting on or after Tuesday. Been out for six weeks with the birth of our second child!

Regarding my overall mild feel for winter, maybe spring severe will be interesting. 

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On 10/7/2021 at 7:00 PM, raindancewx said:

Have to be careful with assuming the subsurface cold will translate fully to the surface. September 1983 was 26.2C in Nino 3.4 like this year. But the subsurface was -2.15 in September, much colder than this year. Still only a 26.0C event in winter. The coldest reading was 25.40C in November 1983 with that La Nina. 

The warmth in the PMM area and then by Indonesia (at and below the surface) also are going to get mixed in with the cold coming up at some point.

Given how closely the subsurface has mimicked 2011 for Jan-Sept, the warm up below the surface should begin around Halloween, give or take two weeks. My guess would be November / December coldest at the surface again and then fairly rapid decay starting late January.

We'll see, this is looking more like a more modoki, west based NINA than anything,its even cooling into the subsurface closer to the IDL.After the next KW moving through this week the MJO signal looks mute right now until it strenghtens into the IO towards the end of the month.Least that is what i see,but this still looks stronger than 2011-2012..IMHO.Think if i were a betting man from TX/LA/AR into the OV could see all kind of extremes,cutter heaven.But that is JMHO.

heat-last-year.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “La Niña WATCH”. During September 2021, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index below -1℃ is expected to gradually increase to -0.24℃ during the forecast period. Based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests a 90% chance of La Niña conditions with weak intensity for November 2021 – January 2022, which gradually decreases. Meanwhile, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to be gradually increasing and then dominant during February – April 2022.
  • Highly probable above normal temperatures are predicted for much of the globe, especially for Eurasia, southern USA, and Argentina for November 2021 – April 2022.
  • A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for eastern Russia, some regions of Canada, and the Arctic for November 2021 – April 2022.
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