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ENSO


jaxjagman
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On 5/22/2020 at 3:15 PM, jaxjagman said:

Sorry to hear of the no trip,i know you look forward to this every year :(

Its been a suck year so far for us here as well.Kids out of school(tho i think some kids might be happy about that..lol)No real graduation this year.

My wife also is going through breast cancer and doing chemo right now,not a great time for this with the CV :( Just saying also,its never a good time for breast cancer either way.Praying we make it through this anyways

Completely missed that last paragraph.  My deepest apologies for not seeing that.  How is it going Jax?  

Also, thanks for the consistent ENSO updates.   

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On 9/6/2020 at 10:33 AM, Carvers Gap said:

Completely missed that last paragraph.  My deepest apologies for not seeing that.  How is it going Jax?  

Also, thanks for the consistent ENSO updates.   

Thanks,its going ok,ive been sick the last couple weeks,no  COVID just feeling blah,scratchy throat,coughing, sneezing,what ever bug it is.hope i never get it again

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 9/14/2020 at 11:10 AM, nrgjeff said:

Big trade winds push in progress. Moderate La Nina is within striking range. Still feel like a good weak Nina. No borderline.

The one i think you were taking about kind of fizzled out didnt it?Think it's what you were talking about but could be wrong.Looks like a strong one will get underway in the upcoming days tho.

Hovmollers-Michael-J-Ventrice-Ph-D-.png

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On 9/7/2020 at 11:39 PM, John1122 said:

Hey Jax, praying for you and your family.  Appreciate reading your stuff here. Your ENSO, severe and East Asian stuff bring a lot to the board that I honestly never knew before.  Hope all goes well for you guys over the next few weeks and months. 

Thanks,missed this

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Oh I saw a webinar yesterday about SSW and related events including early season, last warning, and something called reflection. I'm sorry I can't share it. However the reflection case resembles the ABNA Asia Bering Sea North American pattern, which is also related to charts Jax shares including Asia and North America. All 3 tie in. Good stuff!

Reflection is both horizontal and vertical. The vertical requires the stratopause be in a certain state. Warm energy from the West Pac Tropics pumps up a ridge in eastern Siberia. China gets cold. Pattern reflects a wavelength downstream over North America. Canada mild USA cold. At the right wavelength looking at Asia weather charts can help with USA forecasting.

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Ejw59dLXkAABtV0?format=png&name=large

Posted by raindancewx in the main subforum's ENSO thread yesterday.  Euro has finally caved, and it has a known warm bias.  I'd say the lower-end of strong is within striking range.  There are few models now that don't have a peak near or within at least the lower-end of strong.  Given the continuous strong trade winds, it's not that hard to believe it may happen.  I would consider a moderate peak, at least, very very likely.  I have great concern with many of the models wanting to weaken the La Nina in a west-based form as we head out of winter into spring.  That would set up a significantly positive TNI pattern.  Google the Trans-Nino Index and its link to tornado activity.

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11 hours ago, Fred Gossage said:

Ejw59dLXkAABtV0?format=png&name=large

Posted by raindancewx in the main subforum's ENSO thread yesterday.  Euro has finally caved, and it has a known warm bias.  I'd say the lower-end of strong is within striking range.  There are few models now that don't have a peak near or within at least the lower-end of strong.  Given the continuous strong trade winds, it's not that hard to believe it may happen.  I would consider a moderate peak, at least, very very likely.  I have great concern with many of the models wanting to weaken the La Nina in a west-based form as we head out of winter into spring.  That would set up a significantly positive TNI pattern.  Google the Trans-Nino Index and its link to tornado activity.

 

Just wanted to say thanks for posting here Fred.Hope you continue to post time to time.Nice to have a met posting in our area

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On 10/9/2020 at 4:15 PM, jaxjagman said:

 

Just wanted to say thanks for posting here Fred.Hope you continue to post time to time.Nice to have a met posting in our area

Thanks for your support!  I'll be around at times, more frequently as this pattern continues to show its cards.  From a Dixie Alley severe weather standpoint, I don't like what I'm seeing...

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CFS has a fairly strong wind burst into the second week of Nov if it is to be believed right now,something to watch,Subsurface is really cool right now into 3.4.If you are a tropical person you might even watch the GOM and Atlantic as the MJO passes and possibly a KW into Nov.,but that is to far out right now

wkteq_xz-gif-680×880- (2).png

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  • 2 weeks later...

NMME is showing a strong NINA  now into winter.APEC is the same its last update a couple weeks ago.We seem to be already at that point right now with the last ENSO update coming in at +1.7 for the week,per CPC.

 

It does not look like the IOD(DMI) is going to disappoint the ENSO.Every year the DMI reaches  around +1.4 there has been always been  a moderate to strong LaNina into the the following winter,since 1980

 

Desktop-screenshot.png

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  • 4 weeks later...

cfsv2_pdo_sst_last.gif

The latest PDO for November is in.  Depending on whether you use CPC (here) or NCDC, it is either -1.71 or -1.55... both of which put it into "significantly negative" territory... and well ahead of any modeling.  Look at the CFS, for instance, which gets the PDO to -2 going into April.  Yes, the North Pacific is warm, but it's about the placement of the warm and cold anomalies.  Having that horseshoe of cold in the Gulf of Alaska and the west coast of the USA with warmer anomalies in the offshore NPAC is classic -PDO...

 

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Sure looks like we are headed back to a potential +TNI into spring,if the EURO seasonals are anywhere right

 

2016   -1.630  -1.802  -1.946  -1.978  -1.763  -1.441  -0.968  -0.508  -0.101   0.324   0.690   1.097
 2017    1.447   1.465   1.268   0.592  -0.267  -1.150  -1.575  -1.925  -1.847  -1.735  -1.548  -1.264
 2018   -1.134  -1.260  -1.320  -1.650  -1.978  -2.118  -2.089  -2.159  -1.979  -1.890  -1.734  -1.700
 2019   -1.725  -1.774  -1.892  -2.226  -2.535  -2.750  -3.045  -3.344  -3.286  -3.001  -2.857  -2.549
 2020   -2.208  -2.029  -1.811  -1.756  -1.891  -1.855  -1.720  -1.586 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990
  -99.99
  TNI

AccuWeather-com-Professional-Model-Animator.png

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unknown.png

The +TNI is now officially observed to be in place.  This would be a TNI value of +0.7, getting not far off from a significantly positive TNI already, and this will only strengthen over the next few months as the cooler water shifts into western areas as the La Nina decays.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/CSWW-2015/afternoon1/002_csw_workshop_mar_11_2015_version2.0.pdf

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/5/jcli-d-12-00128.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display

Here are the links to explain why this is important...

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On 11/7/2020 at 7:29 PM, jaxjagman said:

NMME is showing a strong NINA  now into winter.APEC is the same its last update a couple weeks ago.We seem to be already at that point right now with the last ENSO update coming in at +1.7 for the week,per CPC.

 

It does not look like the IOD(DMI) is going to disappoint the ENSO.Every year the DMI reaches  around +1.4 there has been always been  a moderate to strong LaNina into the the following winter,since 1980

 

Desktop-screenshot.png

I am kinda skeptic to what some of the seasonals show,only based on this chart.Some of the seasonals could be killing off NINA to fast.This chart shows in a way or another not counting 2019 there has always to an extent been some sort of resurgent NINA,based on the ONI.Each of the following two winters the ONI has never gone into a NINO but in fact stayed into more of a NINA pattern.Guess we will see down the road.

JAMSTEC has a NINO into summer it seems.The subsurface lately has warmed in the east.Could be a possible KW in the east as well the next few days which could help upwell those cold waters 

wkteq_xz-gif-680×880- (5).png

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Sea Surface Temperature and ENSO Outlook for January 2021 ~ June 2021

Issued: 21 Dec 2020

  • The APCC ENSO outlook suggests “La Nina”.
  • The prevailing ENSO phase is expected to be negative. Negative SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific are predicted during January-June 2021. Along with these spatial distributions, most of the dynamical coupled models predict negative Nino3.4 index which is expected to gradually increase from -1.3℃ to -0.4℃ through the whole forecast period.
  • In summary, based on the running 3-month mean Nino3.4 index, the APCC ENSO outlook suggests La Nina conditions (~87% chance) with weak intensity are dominant during January-March 2021. The conditions are expected to gradually decrease and a 48% chance of neutral conditions is expected during April-June 2021
  • ENSO Alert status for January 2021 ~ June 2021(left) and history of monthly ENSO Alert(right).
sst_Nino3.4timeseries.png
sst_Nino3.4.png
  • Time series of predicted monthly mean Nino3.4 index from individual models and the MME for January 2021 ~ June 2021(left). 3-month mean Nino3.4 index from individual models and the MME for January 2021 ~ March 2021(right).
Prob_ENSO_Probability.png
Prob_ENSO_Intensity.png
  • Probabilistic MME forecasts for the status and intensity based on 3-month mean Nino3.4 index for four overlapping 3-month mean periods(right) and first 3-month (January ~ March)(right).
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  • 1 month later...

 

LaNina is now official,just saying

 

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2010 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6
2011 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0
2012 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7
2015 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6
2016 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0
2018 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8
2019 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2020 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2
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