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jaxjagman
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So... is the Modoki off the table @jaxjagman?  Basin-wide moderate, or are things still in flux?

Source of my question: 

 

Does Modoki vs. normal El Nino make that much difference for TN valley in the long run in terms of Winter pattern? Just heard so much about Modoki over the past years (not necessarily on here) and had my hopes up for something unusual this winter. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

So... is the Modoki off the table @jaxjagman?  Basin-wide moderate, or are things still in flux?

Source of my question: 

 

Does Modoki vs. normal El Nino make that much difference for TN valley in the long run in terms of Winter pattern? Just heard so much about Modoki over the past years (not necessarily on here) and had my hopes up for something unusual this winter. 

 

 

We'll have to wait and see but i don't like the look.The warmer waters east of the IDL and a potential DW kelvin wave would  pull those warmer waters into the thermocline to the surface.It's not basin wide look but more central-east

 

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

17.png

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3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Yeah, I see seasonal models shift with every little swing. It's weird to see them go weaker in the last few weeks with the El Nino dominating and still peaking. 

Yeah ,noticed this also.Seasonals keep pushing back and back when it peaks like you said.

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Tidbits continues to be to cool with the ENSO.What it seems to be doing is showing the passing of the MJO and clouds/convection.Not sure i'd use this for a few days.The last KW  got warmer into 3 and also showing signs of more warning into the thermocline around the IDL on the T/TTITON,but it'd take sometime for those waters to get pulled to the surface,kinda of a moot point right now it seems.It still looks like this is more Central/east based not Modoki,but you could argue this is more east.

Real Time multivariate MJO Phase Space Diagrams   Michael J  Ventrice  Ph D .png

Ocean Analysis   Tropical Tidbits.png

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz gif  783×979 17.png

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I remain bullish, slightly cold, for winter. Current El Nino is moderate, but it's only a snapshot. Two of the last three weak/mdt El Ninos briefly spiked strong before trailing off. Those were 2002-03 and 2009-10 both cold winters. Most recent weak-mdt El Nino 2014-15 stayed below moderate; it was also a cold winter.

November verified cold eastern half to 2/3 of USA. It looks similar to 2014, but that year was colder to the East Coast. This year remember the cutter systems? Snow fans of course want that to end. Anyway 2014-15 was the last snow thump in Chattanooga. I'm quite comfortable with ENSO at the moment. 

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ONI updated "SON" SITS AT 0.7

 

 

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6
2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0
2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7
2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6
2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0
2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7
 
 

PowerPoint Presentation.png

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