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jaxjagman
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Potential for a decent KW towards the end of the month into Sept,but this certainly could change at this point but the MJO looks like it could get stronger into the Maritime .There looks to be a more dying one ongoing right now but it's still is getting into 3.4 the next couple days.

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

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Jamstec looks close to the same with the ENSO,maybe kinda similar to the IMME?Compared to the last seasonal update The big difference to me on the Jamstec from the last update is how much cooler the SST's are in the Gulf of Alaska/Bearing Sea.Maybe it's an outlier or maybe it's not,but this run is much warmer in winter time

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 9/13/2018 at 8:33 AM, jaxjagman said:

Jamstec warmed up this run,shows a moderate Nino into the winter months.

Sam Lillo   splillo    Twitter.png

Jax, can you see its corresponding temps for DJF for NA?...I noticed that at least one recent run had departed from its cold winter forecast and was very warm.  If we have a moderate Nino, all bets are off here regarding winter IMO.  However, I wonder if we might still feel some effects of a weak El Nino as it will just be getting started...before it goes moderate. 

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4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Jax, can you see its corresponding temps for DJF for NA?...I noticed that at least one recent run had departed from its cold winter forecast and was very warm.  If we have a moderate Nino, all bets are off here regarding winter IMO.  However, I wonder if we might still feel some effects of a weak El Nino as it will just be getting started...before it goes moderate. 

 

Low latitude Climate Prediction Research|JAMSTEC.png

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The IMME updated so it's plume should be correct than what i posted above on the 8th

The IMME is cooler this update,it showed a moderate Nino last month but now shows a weak Nino but the warmer SST's are  in region 3 ever so slightly,not even sure that's worth mentioning but that's what it shows

1.png

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On 9/17/2018 at 3:01 PM, nrgjeff said:

CFS is also on fire all winter. Both models may be influenced by generally warm oceans over the entire Northern Hemisphere. Perhaps the late bloom of El Nino will behave more like weak Nino; and, get us some winter back half per ECMWF.

Noticed that that as well, definitely gives one hope we can have a good winter.  Where do we stand with the Modoki look? Is there any cold water creeping off the coast of South America??

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  • 3 weeks later...

Confidence is greater on El Nino after data the last couple weeks. I've been around but quite busy at work and home with activities. Also American Wx fell off my routine when it crashed for a few days. El Nino could still turn out basin wide, but odds slightly favor Modoki.

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6 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Surprised it isn't warmer.The temps in the SE  it'd be more Miller A,good for the east

1.png

Seems like that has a trough east of HI and one in the SE(both good teleconnections) w marginal source regions for cold.  IMHO, that is indeed a decent storm track...rainy looking but maybe we can steal a few wet snows from that look.  I would be surprised if the northern Plains were warm.  I think we will have a net trough w cold diving in from Canada(Canadian air and not Arctic for the most part) through the Plains w the SER fighting like crazy all winter.  That really looks like that model wants a moderate Nino which I am not sure verifies...going to be a close call between good and meh.

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5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Seems like that has a trough east of HI and one in the SE(both good teleconnections) w marginal source regions for cold.  IMHO, that is indeed a decent storm track...rainy looking but maybe we can steal a few wet snows from that look.  I would be surprised if the northern Plains were warm.  I think we will have a net trough w cold diving in from Canada(Canadian air and not Arctic for the most part) through the Plains w the SER fighting like crazy all winter.  That really looks like that model wants a moderate Nino which I am not sure verifies...going to be a close call between good and meh.

Looks warm in Dec +1,Jan and Feb, neutral.But like you said it shows a more basin wide moderate Nino

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8 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Looks warm in Dec +1,Jan and Feb, neutral.But like you said it shows a more basin wide moderate Nino

I will be surprised if this gets to moderate before late winter....someone mentioned that in one of the threads, maybe Jeff.  So, you think it looks warmish due to December?  Normal for January and February will get the job done.  

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FWIW

 

El Niño ALERT; positive Indian Ocean Dipole likely underway

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been raised to El Niño ALERT. This means there is approximately a 70% chance of El Niño occurring in 2018—around triple the normal likelihood. Similarly, in the Indian Ocean, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have started.

When combined, these two events in spring increase the possibility of a dry and warm end to the year. It also raises the risk of heatwaves and bushfire weather in the south, but reduces the risk of tropical cyclone activity in the north.

The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed in recent weeks due to weakening of the trade winds, while the Southern Oscillation Index has fallen to typical El Niño levels. Models suggest further warming of the Pacific is likely. Four of eight models predict El Niño thresholds will likely be exceeded in the coming months, with another two falling just short.

In the Indian Ocean, there are signs that a positive IOD is currently underway. The IOD index has exceeded the threshold (+0.4 °C) for the last four weeks. However, these values must persist until November for it to be considered a positive IOD event. Model outlooks suggest positive IOD values are likely to continue through the austral spring, before returning to neutral values in late November to December.

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Jamstec shows a strong Nino with the Valley cold.This would be or possibly be an active Southern Jet with a southern storm track,if it's right of course.But we've had some decent winter storms in the past in the Valley with a moderate to strong Nino.The New Years day storm of 1964 pops up in my mind.

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/newyearsday1964snowstorm

Low latitude Climate Prediction Research|JAMSTEC.png

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The thing that strikes me about the Euro / Jamstec runs is you rarely have +1.2 (Euro) or +1.8 (Jamstec) readings in February - the events tend to be lower if they are weak and weakening, and the super-events are still around +2 or more. The only real years like that are 1941, 1969, 1973, 1987, and most of those are double El Ninos.

 

 

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I'd guess temp numbers across the entire region would be similar as far as Nino winters. Moderate to weak both show a higher chance of below normal vs above normal than Strong/Neutral winters.

Looks like with last week's update the NCEP is predicting something in the 1 degree above normal range. For comparisons sake, the 2009-10 Nino was +1.5 and the 2015-16 monster was +2.6. 

Ranges appear to be + 0-.5 = neutral. .5-1 = weak. 1-1.6 = moderate. 1.7-2 .1 = strong. Above 2.2 = very strong.

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Lacking extensive knowledge of the effects of SSTs in different parts of the oceans and how they affect our weather patterns is a part of the reason you see little traffic in this thread. I can easily give observations, dish out banter and fantasy storms, and even give a rudimentary opinion as to what to expect a few weeks in advance, but beyond that I feel I cannot create a coherent post of value in this thread so I sit in the background instead attempting to learn. In other words I am aware of my own ignorance about the topic so I restrain myself and when I do make a post outside of banter or observations I try my best. ;)

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

This continues, year after year, to be an underrated thread.  Some really great info in here.  Strong work!

 

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31 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Lacking extensive knowledge of the effects of SSTs in different parts of the oceans and how they affect our weather patterns is a part of the reason you see little traffic in this thread. I can easily give observations, dish out banter and fantasy storms, and even give a rudimentary opinion as to what to expect a few weeks in advance, but beyond that I feel I cannot create a coherent post of value in this thread so I sit in the background instead attempting to learn. In other words I am aware of my own ignorance about the topic so I restrain myself and when I do make a post outside of banter or observations I try my best.

 

I hear you.  I have learned a ton from this thread.  It is a unique thread to the entire greater forum I believe.  Our severe thread may be an original as well.  Just dishing out a compliment to Jax and the gang for expanding our knowledge.:thumbsup:

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5 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

Lacking extensive knowledge of the effects of SSTs in different parts of the oceans and how they affect our weather patterns is a part of the reason you see little traffic in this thread. I can easily give observations, dish out banter and fantasy storms, and even give a rudimentary opinion as to what to expect a few weeks in advance, but beyond that I feel I cannot create a coherent post of value in this thread so I sit in the background instead attempting to learn. In other words I am aware of my own ignorance about the topic so I restrain myself and when I do make a post outside of banter or observations I try my best. ;)

 

What  Nino vs Nino "Modoki" looks like.You have warmer waters  in the central flanked by cooler anomalies during an "Modoki" within the boxed areas,parts in between are neutral

El Niño Modoki Phenomenon in the Tropical Pacific.png

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