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jaxjagman
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Like to see the next update from CPC.The TAO shows warming into the subsurface getting into R3 today from a more suppressed Kelvin.The CFS still shows a WWB getting into R3 around mid month  but without a more robust Rossby as it was showing earlier, so this WWB goes further east, so this would/could help kick up a CCKW  as being shown

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3.4 and 3 are slightly rising today.WWB headed east of the IDL today looks to strenghten some what and kicks up a Kelvin,should have to wait and see tho what kind of upwelling it does as warm as the waters are into the subsurface into 3.4,not much going on after this seemingly for several days so eyes should be on if the MJO gets finally active which it seems could be finally moving  into the IO

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

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Ongoing WWB east of the IDL has been warming 3.4,this should last maybe a couple more weeks until the WWB passes and weakens with even more warming east of the IDL even into region 3 also even have to see what a Kelvin does,after this nothing really showing up other than some weak easterlies into Nov seemingly right now,Should see 3.4 get bumped up from 0.5 up tomorrow when the weekly ENSO update comes out

SST Analysis.png

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Positive IOD is the strongest since 1994,1997 and 2006.no signs of letting go right now.

During these years  and using the starting point of the last ONI  this year with "JAS" which is right now at 0.1,but is subject to change possibly in the future.

In the year 1994 during "JAS" the ONI started at +0.4 and at the end of this year "OND" ended in a moderate Nino 1.1

During 1997 during "JAS"  1.9 and ended up being the 2nd strongest Nino 2.4 into "OND" based on the ONI since 1950

2006 "JAS" probably started closer than any other year "JAS"  0.3 and ended up close to a moderate Nino in "OND" 0.9

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Pretty sure the IOD was positive last year too by Fall anyway, although not as much as this year. The Jamstec has it falling off later. The main thing with the IOD is it is a way to keep relatively high pressure over Australia, which helps the SOI stay negative or neutral.

And you are right,we went into a Nino into winter.The OBS today from Jamstec is at +1.236 right now today by mid Nov it's showing  to be at +1.104

Climate monitoring graphs.png

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Would like to see a good analog for this winter pattern,doubt you'll find one,last season we was warm and wet.The IOD from Sintex and even the CFS don't show the IOD breaking down soon,but Sintex does show it weaken in which i said above to + 1.104 in mid Nov.What's even more odd the strongest reading in Nov was back into 1997 in a strong Nino where it hit 1.528,there has never been into Nov this reading and yet alone over +1  ever since 1870,really think the SST'S are going to be much warmer than what some of these seasonals are showing upcoming,right now anyways.

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

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Yeah, tough to get a good analog right now.  Poor gradients SST(referencing Typhoon Tip) in the Pacific, a raging IOD, Nina sig in the eastern Pac, warm northern Pac...as Jeff noted in the pattern thread, going to be a headache forecasting this winter.  I believe Jeff's analog was a root canal - paraphrased a bit on my part.  The problem with finding an analog is there are not enough to build confidence with.  Throw in record low solar, that odd looking ENSO setup, and a falling QBO...the pool of analogs gets pretty thin.  As far as western cold...I tend to think that streak has about run its course.  At some point they are going to have a warm winter or two.  That said, we may very well be in a cycle where the West gets cold on average for several years.  The 90s had many low water years out there.  When they had the record drought several years ago, they thought they were locked into that long term.  Now, they are getting plenty of rain, snow and cold in the same areas that were frying in the heat.  But at some point, the extreme will give way to near average or even below.  Sooooo....this winter seems like a real crap shoot.  Might very well be that the pattern stays fairly progressive.  Seems like recent winters have just been either/or...meaning you either have a big, cold winter or a torch.  Might be we get both of each this winter.

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October 1951 is honestly shockingly close to October 2019 for temperatures nationally - one of the best single year analog matches I've seen in a few years. Oct 1951 was a 27.2C El Nino in Nino 3.4, but it was an East-based El Nino by this point. In the West, the cold should actually push further South than 1951 by the end of the month. Areas near the Mexican border in New Mexico will be 25-30F outside the cities tomorrow morning - very cold for October that far south at fairly low elevations.

 

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2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

October 1951 is honestly shockingly close to October 2019 for temperatures nationally - one of the best single year analog matches I've seen in a few years. Oct 1951 was a 27.2C El Nino in Nino 3.4, but it was an East-based El Nino by this point. In the West, the cold should actually push further South than 1951 by the end of the month. Areas near the Mexican border in New Mexico will be 25-30F outside the cities tomorrow morning - very cold for October that far south at fairly low elevations.

 

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Must have been a brutal warm winter that winter in our parts with the PDO crashing in fall into winter

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1952.9933398?journalCode=vwws20

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January 1952 is like +7F in the SE, with December/February not much better. I don't think 1951-52 will hold up real well outside Fall though. 

Nino 4 is much warmer than in 1951, and like you said, the PDO crashed hard to well below 0 by December 1951, which is correlated to strong winter heat for the South.

In Fall/Spring, I generally weight the PDO/AMO higher, with the prior year ONI, solar, and some other things less. As solar/ONI prior and the others become more important, 1951 should fall of as a match. 

I looked earlier - the best October matches to this October in an El Nino since 1930 are: 1939, 1941, 1951, 1969, 1994. Something like 2014 is relatively opposite, with places in the Northwest out by close to 20 degrees compared to what has happened this October, despite similar Nino 3.4 temps.

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By the CFS the IOD is showing to maybe finally breaking down past the Mid month.the RMMM's will be nothing but noise until then.still looks like at least some sort of WWB into the 2nd week of Nov that could possibly bring a Kelvin east of the IDL.Maybe and seemingly the MJO will become relevant once again and move past the mid month and more into the 3rd week of Nov.

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The BOM and SINTEX have different readings which you'd expect anyways of the DMI.BOM shows the DMI as been the highest ever a week or two ago at( 2.16.)While Sintex shows the highest peak was Nov 14,1997 at (2.202).

1994 by SINTEX came in 3rd when it peaked in Mid Oct of that year at (2.082)

During or after the peak both of these years 1994,1997 the ONI rose into into a stronger Nino into winter  on the ONI

1994 went into a moderate Nino

1997 went into the the 2ND strongest Nino ever

The following year 1995 and 1998 went into a Nina in" JJA." on the tri-monthlies

(-0.5) IN 1995 which ended up a moderate Nina into the winter months

(-0.8) IN 1998 which ended up a very strong Nina into that winter but this was a very long lived Nina in whole that last until early 2001

 

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Subsurface continues to warm east of the IDL,into the IO there looks to be a Rossby Wave that will weaken the ongoing winds for a few days but towards the Mid month they look like they will return once again.By the looks right now the MJO seems to reappear in East Afica towards the middle of Nov then stall out once again into the western IO,have to wait to see if it might happen,but sure looks that way right now

wkteq_xz gif  680×880  (1).png

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like 1/2 El Nino and 1/2 La Nina....looks much cooler than I thought it would look.  What are the trends on that, Jax?

Not a whole lot of change from the last update,you have your cold and warm,gonna be tough to get a Nina into winter with what the subsurface looks like right now.Not really sure what the GEM and Nasa is looking at into winter

Plumes.png

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1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Not a whole lot of change from the last update,you have your cold and warm,gonna be tough to get a Nina into winter with what the subsurface looks like right now.Not really sure what the GEM and Nasa is looking at into winter

Plumes.png

Yeah, I think the western and middle Pacific are pretty much going to be AN SSTs for DJF.  I figured the eastern regions might warm a bit.  Kind of a weird set-up and why an analog package may get beat-up pretty good this winter as many(including you an I) have noted.  Hey, the SOI is tanking...not sure what that is going to unleash.

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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, I think the western and middle Pacific are pretty much going to be AN SSTs for DJF.  I figured the eastern regions might warm a bit.  Kind of a weird set-up and why an analog package may get beat-up pretty good this winter as many(including you an I) have noted.  Hey, the SOI is tanking...not sure what that is going to unleash.

Yeahh,could see a nice storm upcoming with the SOI.Have to wait and see how it plays out

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On 11/3/2019 at 2:36 PM, jaxjagman said:

Subsurface continues to warm east of the IDL,into the IO there looks to be a Rossby Wave that will weaken the ongoing winds for a few days but towards the Mid month they look like they will return once again.By the looks right now the MJO seems to reappear in East Afica towards the middle of Nov then stall out once again into the western IO,have to wait to see if it might happen,but sure looks that way right now

wkteq_xz gif  680×880  (1).png

 

wkteq_xz gif  680×880 .png

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