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jaxjagman

ENSO 2018-2019

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Good stuff, Jax.  IDK about the JAMSTEC.  That is another big change in continuity for it.  I generally like that model, but it struggled last winter as did the Euro Weeklies.  If I had to bet, I think the regions closer to SA will be slightly BN in terms of SST and the regions to the West will be slightly AN.  That seems to be a commonality at least for Fall on modeling.  So, what I can't decide is whether that has a Modoki look or if it is a week Nina.  I am beginning to subscribe to the idea that Robert from WxSouth is floating, and that is that typical ENSO patterns are not producing correlating results in relation to past analogs.  I think the gradient will be the issue now in terms of SST(giving a nod to TyphoonTip).  Pretty much the entire Pac basin is atypically warm.  Now, Isotherm just posted(maybe on the main board now) about how the over-amped Pac may likely produce a very active Pacific jet.  We saw that last winter as it just hammered the northern Rockies.  I have never seen so much snow in my life(visited in late March last year)....they still had snow up to the second floors of their buildings on April 1st in West Yellowstone, MT.  So, I wonder if we see another year with a very active Pacific jet.  What I don't know is how the cooler water near SA is going to impact that fire hose.  Does it buckle the jet(if so, where?) or does it just allow a zonal flow as this winter's norm?  Also the warmer temps in the GOA are going to have to be reckoned with.  Even if analogs could be used, seems like very few match the warm basin look along with the very warm water in the GOA.  I have seen 93-94 kicked around and maybe 14-15...but do those analogs even work as there is very little gradient in the Pacific right now.  

I still think the mean trough is east of the Rockies(maybe up against the foothills on its westward extent) and is west of the Apps(maybe barely).  I also think this winter is going to be similar to 17-18 in that it has extremes that tend to flip back and forth during winter.  Hey, and great thread as always.  Thanks for sharing those maps. Definitely not a boring ENSO look as it is sort of wild looking.   I suspect we are in new territory right now in terms of the ENSO.  This is when I would like to have an atmospheric physics degree(without having to put in all of that work to get it...LOL).

 

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So in honor of me saying that analogs are likely untrustworthy as we approach the winter season, let's look at where we are today...or close to it.  Oddly, I have tried to remember the summer of '93 and can't remember it.  Well, there is a reason for that.  I wasn't in North America!  I was in the Middle East all summer(non-military).  What I do remember is news of the Mississippi flooding.  Anyway, I can find a few similar times to where we are now in terms of the ENSO cycle.  93-94, 95-96, and 05-06.  95-96 had more of a La Nina raging by August than now...so I am going to discard that for the moment.  However, the summers of 93 and 05 looked fairly familiar in terms of the actually look of the SST temps vs comparing graphs.

 

oni.png

August 12, 20191046478215_ScreenShot2019-08-15at10_52_06AM.png.8cfc64226973fd3a9deedf2914e67188.png

August 19931994067511_ScreenShot2019-08-15at10_52_53AM.thumb.png.35d5ee162e07db516699a4e04cba2f1e.png

August 16, 2005

459706917_ScreenShot2019-08-15at11_04_18AM.thumb.png.e9b8ff72a46c34af646f4b1dbf55416a.png

Here are the composite temps for May through July for 1993/2005...

1353594573_ScreenShot2019-08-15at11_11_10AM.png.a53d13e8a8bc39f39eeec87c38c5e39b.png

and here is the precip map.

410477811_ScreenShot2019-08-15at11_11_39AM.png.9ef30de950f8b4c857c8d3c0593428fb.png

Here is 2019...

1096290633_ScreenShot2019-08-15at11_12_27AM.png.92d90553ad33422d00a4aa8b737faf02.png

1553922784_ScreenShot2019-08-15at11_12_07AM.png.3ba8ef3dba236543fb568c6e8907637d.png

 

Plenty of similarities on the analog composites.  2019 has surface temps in similar areas but warmer.  2019 has AN precip in the nation's heartland but displaced further south and east.  Both winters were wildly different but yielded normal to slightly BN temps over the TN Valley for winter.  Where they were significantly different was over the northern Plains during the following winters.  I didn't include that composite of the two analogs because they are so different that the composite map actually does a misrepresents the two winters.  05-06 is wildly warm over the Norther Plains and 93-94 is cold...almost opposites in those areas.  That said, again, the SE is normal/cool during both.

addendum:  One can also not on the SST maps that the overall look of the 2019 Pacific map is warmer and is washing out the gradient in the northern hemisphere and might render moot the downstream ENSO implications over NA.  Reference to Isotherm and TyphoonTip again.

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The SOI finally made it into an more Nina pattern today for 30 days anyways,still has aways for 90

 

18 Aug 2019 1017.45 1014.60 7.46 0.07 -7.28
17 Aug 2019 1017.60 1014.75 7.46 -0.38 -7.47
16 Aug 2019 1014.80 1015.85 -16.21 -1.04 -7.56
15 Aug 2019 1014.60 1016.25 -19.85 -0.87 -7.26
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Slightly warmer into the thermocline  this update as a CCKW is passing through east of the IDL bringing some upwelling.MJO signal looks weak but looks to be into the Maritime in a couple days,least this is what the RMMM's are showing.Jamstec shows an active "Modoki" into fall,maybe we can get an active fall severe for a change:lightning::unsure:

wkteq_xz gif (680×880).png

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NMME is out and don't look great IMO.Tho this looks like  a more +PDO,But look how warm the SST is showing into the GOM,this should teleconnect much cooler with the PDO than what is being shown into the GOM,you'd think those SST'S along the west coast would be much colder with the look into the GOM

Season 3 tmpsfc.png

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Basically if you look at the maps above what some of the NMMES show there is nothing coupled with the oceans,it has  been that way since the inception of this Nino, it could be just like last winter warm and wet but last winter the SST'S  were much warmer  east of the IDL,unlike this year it seems.There would seem to be depending on the QBO the PV could be weak so there always is a chance of a SSWE  INTO winter.But this winter seems like a crap shoot IMHO,with more weight towards warm than cold

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With no sharp gradient(Typhoon Tip) in SST temps on those maps above...I agree, all bets are off.  Also, Isotherm has talked about how the warm Pacific created a really strong jet that just plowed into the Northwest this past winter.  Again, evidence of deep mountain snows in western WY and western MT revealed that.  This winter, tough call as not many analogs fit the Pacific basin wide warmth.  The MJO also was abnormally strong last winter along with an atypical SOI.  I am still leaning towards my original thinking for winter which I wrote in mid-June somewhere in the Spring/Summer thread....but still a long way to go and things can/will change.  For a time last month, I thought we might actually go to a La Nina State which would have tanked my early forecast on the spot.  As of now, it looks a bit more like a Nada on the weakly positive side - but a funky setup as some Pacific equatorial regions will be almost Nino and some almost Nina.  As D'Aleo mentioned, need to get through hurricane and cyclone season and then see what the SSTs look like.

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My hunch for the winter is that the SE will do well for some snow events, particularly in the interior. I think you'll have some unusual methods of entry for cold air into the US along with a strong subtropical jet, like in an El Nino, but it will be oriented more to come into the US via NM and TX rather than California. I haven't looked into it too much yet though.

It's pretty hard to find any real dud winters out here after a big -SOI in September actually. I think Montana and the Dakotas are kind of a due for a break, three very harsh winters up there.

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@jaxjagman You are on your game this week, man.  Another good find.  Yeah, the JAMSTEC and the Euro Weeklies/Seasonal were just terrible.  I hesitate to mention the CFSv2 because it puts out about four different solutions per day.  A broken clock is right twice a day regarding the CFSv2.  What I like about that run is that it might be closer to the ENSO set-up than the CANSIPS...oddly they both give similar surface maps.  The SSTs for the JAMSTEC look more accurate globally as well.  Does make me wonder if the JAMSTEC has a cold bias over NA after its solutions last winter.  

I also think that modeling had a really difficult time "catching up" last winter and was dealing with feedback issues.  One looks at the SOI last winter, and a bust was on the table then.  Thanks for the share...at least that looks more reasonable than the CANSIPS given the current Pacific basin warmth.  

Jax, do they release a precip anomaly map with that season package?  If so, how did it look for our area.

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51 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@jaxjagman You are on your game this week, man.  Another good find.  Yeah, the JAMSTEC and the Euro Weeklies/Seasonal were just terrible.  I hesitate to mention the CFSv2 because it puts out about four different solutions per day.  A broken clock is right twice a day regarding the CFSv2.  What I like about that run is that it might be closer to the ENSO set-up than the CANSIPS...oddly they both give similar surface maps.  The SSTs for the JAMSTEC look more accurate globally as well.  Does make me wonder if the JAMSTEC has a cold bias over NA after its solutions last winter.  

I also think that modeling had a really difficult time "catching up" last winter and was dealing with feedback issues.  One looks at the SOI last winter, and a bust was on the table then.  Thanks for the share...at least that looks more reasonable than the CANSIPS given the current Pacific basin warmth.  

Jax, do they release a precip anomaly map with that season package?  If so, how did it look for our area.

 

Low-latitude Climate Prediction Research|JAMSTEC.png

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10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

 

Low-latitude Climate Prediction Research|JAMSTEC.png

Thanks.  Any thoughts after looking at that?  Looks like a weak signal for below normal precip.  Maybe it is signaling a strong +PNA pattern?  Looks like it favors a split flow pattern with California and the southwest getting AN precip.  @raindancewx, that would be a big bonus for you all.  Will be interesting to see if La Nina eventually develops next spring.

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9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thanks.  Any thoughts after looking at that?  Looks like a weak signal for below normal precip.  Maybe it is signaling a strong +PNA pattern?  Looks like it favors a split flow pattern with California and the southwest getting AN precip.  @raindancewx, that would be a big bonus for you all.  Will be interesting to see if La Nina eventually develops next spring.

By the looks the precip looks wet in Fla with potential severe thunderstorms and wet in California,seems typical Nino.Looks like our typical cold seasons of past where the battle ground is 1-40,crap shoot south

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10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

By the looks the precip looks wet in Fla with potential severe thunderstorms and wet in California,seems typical Nino.Looks like our typical cold seasons of past where the battle ground is 1-40,crap shoot south

Yeah, I agree. I thought the Nino look was going to diminish more than it has based on last month's trajectory and outlook, but the recent positive look might actually hold through winter.  Definitely has cooled off in the eastern ENSO regions, but still likely to produce a weak Nino signal, maybe a Modoki.  The SOI seems to agree the Nino effects are still there, because it is really tanking.  Might be one of these winters where the weak El Nino signal gradually fades...

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