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jaxjagman

ENSO 2018-2019

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2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

This is a strong +subsurface wave currently happening, and 11-15 day models have it continuing to strengthen. 

Yeah, i saw this.850-hpa zonal winds are showing another possible WWB upcoming

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EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
 
14 March 2019
 

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

 

Synopsis:  Weak El Nino conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance).

El Niño conditions strengthened during February 2019, as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) increased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1] and the associated atmospheric anomalies became increasingly well-defined. The SST index values in the Niño3, Niño3.4 and Niño4 regions all increased during February, with the latest weekly values near +1°C in each region [Fig. 2]. The anomalous upper-ocean heat content (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased appreciably during February [Fig. 3], due to an increase in above-average temperatures at depth in association with a downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave [Fig. 4]. Enhanced equatorial convection prevailed near the Date Line, while suppressed convection was observed over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly in the central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the far western and far eastern Pacific. The equatorial and traditional Southern Oscillation Index values were both negative (-1.4 standard deviations). Overall, these features are consistent with weak El Niño conditions.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño 3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater through the Northern Hemisphere early autumn 2019 [Fig. 6]. Given the recent downwelling Kelvin wave, and the increase in both the SSTs and subsurface ocean temperatures, most forecasters expect positive SST anomalies to persist across the central and eastern Pacific for at least the next several months. During that time, forecasters predict the SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region to remain between +0.5°C and +1.0°C, indicating weak El Niño conditions. However, because forecasts made during spring tend to be less accurate, the predicted chance that El Niño will persist beyond summer is currently about 50%. In summary, weak El Niño conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance); click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 April 2019. 

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Let's just keep 1.2 a little cool for severe season and TNI. After that I don't care, lol.

19 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Jamstec is updating,this would be"O-N-D" what it shows on this update, more neutral (negative) ENSO into winter

 

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14 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Let's just keep 1.2 a little cool for severe season and TNI. After that I don't care, lol.

 

It would be nice looking into next spring.With valcano and the low solar cycle into next winter good luck with analogs.

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Actually I think the North Pacific would keep severe season active this year more than the TNI. Upon reviewing the paper at work. TNI is not the driver attm. However the slightly -PDO may be a driver. Just depends on how the PNA evolves with spring wavelengths. I would think the typical migration from South to Plains, unless the pattern breaks down.

Chasers want this current week pattern to be temporary. Get back to southwest flow. On the other hand, a break is nice considering all the flooding from here to Nebraska. 

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KW passed through where the warmer thermocline is being shown which brought  warmer temps to the surface.MJO even though it  shows weak signals should pass  through this region upcoming.

 

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomaly Animation

 

 

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Back in 2015 we saw a monster DWKW in which was around this time frame that led into a Super Nino into the winter months.This has nothing to do with a forecast,just bringing back memories :)

 

monster-kelvin-wave-redux.gif

 

 

 

 

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For severe, per TNI, we could use warmer 1.2 and milder 3.4. Otherwise early severe was a head fake. I still think this KW and other factors (persistent Heartland storm track / Baja SSTs) will bring more action.

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3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

No Strong Nino coming with this (It could hit +1.6-1.7 though)

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.gif

Not a whole lot showing.After the  WWB showing up around the the end of the month,nothing exciting right now after this.The MJO signal looks even more murky after it hits Africa upcoming

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2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Still just a model forecast, but interesting discussion of model skill, other SST questions in this thread. Thought there might be some interest here. 

Looks  more like the East Asia Rule, ridge off of Japan and a Mid Atlantic/NE Region ridge,if it were to teleconnect right,it's a wet pattern in the Valley/SE.You'd probably see HP around Bermuda into Florida,which would have a chance of tropical genesis into the GOM during this time frame.

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Be fun to watch the MJO upcoming.CFS looks like the MJO could get stronger about at the same time it would also seem to look like a  DWKW towards the mid of Apill,but this could also be destructive interference from the ENSO along the IDL.Right now the MJO looks to come off Africa into wk.2 of April.

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

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Probably climate change as we lose the ocean sinks. Oops wrong sub-forum!

On 3/25/2019 at 7:30 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said:

We are still behind the ENSO spring predictability barrier. Who really knows what will happen next winter?

In the mid-term the MJO is a disaster right now for severe. Japan's Himawari satellite loop shows nothing good either. Hopefully it does change by mid-April.

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CanSIPS shows Nino lasting until March 2020(end of the run) and maybe beyond.Last ETA shows the waters are warm  almost 100m down into the thermocline practically basin wide,with some cooler waters which was probably from the last KW upwelling,mainly around east of the IDL.

The BOM update shows a Moderate Nino will peak around  May/June then fall off

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

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